Since 2020, there has been a significant difference between the actual mortality (around 170,000 people) and the expected mortality (around 155,000 people) every year. As of this year, RIVM and CBS are trying to neutralise this difference administratively by increasing the expected mortality by leaps and bounds to approximately 170,000 people. A model based on developments in the pre-corona period proves that CBS and RIVM are far too high in terms of their expectations. It would therefore be advisable for the House of Representatives to point out to the institutes that they should make a reliable and scientifically sound prognosis of the expected mortality.
Introduction
Since 2020, there has been excess mortality, i.e. mortality that is structurally above the expected mortality. In 2020, excess mortality could be explained almost entirely by Covid-19. In 2021, this will also be the case in the first half of the year, but no longer in the second half of the year. In 2022 and 2023, excess mortality may have fallen slightly, but the number of deaths from Covid-19 has fallen faster, so that the "unexplained" excess mortality has actually increased.
On 9 February 2024, CBS (1) reported that excess mortality in 2023 amounted to approximately 12,700 people.
Following a unanimously supported motion submitted by Pieter Omtzigt at the end of 2021, various studies have been launched that are indirectly related to unexplained excess mortality. To date, these studies have not yielded any results that could explain the excess mortality.
Not every expectation is a baseline
In its simplest form, excess mortality can be defined as the difference between actual and expected mortality, which counts as a 'baseline'.
In order to determine when excess mortality occurs, it is therefore first necessary to make a good forecast of mortality, taking into account demographic developments. Both CBS and RIVM have made such expectations in recent years. In the context of monitoring the number of deaths due to Covid-19, CBS's forecast up to and including the end of 2023 was leading.
In a joint report on 12 December 2023 (2), CBS and RIVM indicated that as of 1-1-2024, CBS would stop calculating the possibly. excess mortality and that the RIVM interpretation of mortality would be leading.
However, it appears that the expected mortality at RIVM has been significantly higher on an annual basis in recent years than at CBS. And this expectation for 2024 is so high that if the actual mortality were close to that in 2023, there would be no excess mortality at all!
But CBS is also opting for a sudden increase in expected mortality. On 15 December 2023 (3), the updated population forecast 2023-2070 was published, which shows that the expected mortality for 2024 will also be close to the actual mortality in recent years.
Neither CBS nor RIVM have provided a substantive explanation for the stepwise increase in expected mortality.
The forecast of the expected mortality of CBS has been calculated by Steigstra et al. See (4).
It turned out that the model forecast in this publication was closer to the CBS forecast than to the RIVM forecast. So far, there has been no sustained criticism of the content. On the contrary, other researchers have confirmed through their calculations that the model results form a very good basis.
Hover over the graph to learn more
The mortality expected by the government (orange) is the baseline. This is used to calculate excess mortality, so the higher the baseline, the lower the excess mortality. Our baseline (purple) is demographically substantiated. In view of the developments since 2021, we also anticipate a significantly higher mortality of more than 170,000, which is significantly more than our own baseline. So we foresee excess mortality. Anyone who promotes such an 'expectation' to a baseline denies the excess mortality.
Overview of the expectations or baselines
| Year | CBS * (5) | CBS forecast 2023-2070 | RIVM forecast (6) * | Model (4) | Mortality |
| 2020 | 153.401 | x | x | 155,666 | 168.678 |
| 2021 | 154.890 | x | x | 156,819 | 170.971 |
| 2022 | 155.496 | x | 158.616 | 158,175 | 170.112 |
| 2023 | 156.666 | 169.300 | 165.743 | 159.895*** | 169.363 |
| 2024 | x | 169.500 | 170,000 plus ** | 161.418*** |
* Based on 52 weeks starting with week number one, one extra day is approximately 490 deaths at the turn of the year at RIVM compared to 470 at CBS (5). A calendar year is 52 weeks plus one day, unless it's a leap year, in which case it's 52 weeks plus two days.
** Expectation for the 1st half of the year (in this case 26 weeks) is known and is 2,453 deaths higher than the 1st half of 2023. Converted to 52 weeks, this would mean a total of at least 170,000.
Based on the linear trend of the Steigstra et al's model(4)
The actual mortality in 2022 was 170,112 people and in 2023 based on provisional figures 169,400 according to Statistics Netherlands (2).
It should therefore be clear that when the actual mortality in 2024 is around 170,000 people, based on the CBS forecast and RIVM forecast, would no longer be excess mortality, while if the Model were followed, there would be an excess mortality of about 10,000 people.
Other expectations
There are several alternative mortality projections in circulation. The differences arise from whether or not a particular year is included, for example because it is considered an outlier, or by choosing a Other reference period. Such choices can cause a trend line to tilt a bit or an almost linear course can start to look more like a curve. As the years go by, the results vary more and more. This is inevitable with 2019 being the last 'normal' reference year. However, all forecasts agree that the 'pandemic years' should not be taken into account when determining a future forecast. Steigstra et al have laid a solid foundation, substantiated and transparent.
Call
We therefore call on the House of Representatives to request CBS and RIVM:
- Make a realistic forecast of the baseline,
- based on the pre-corona years and
- based on demographic developments in recent years
- with substantiation of assumptions, models and data sources, and
- taking into account scientific principles, including transparency and reproducibility.
Publications:
(1) https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2024/06/sterfte-in-2023-afgenomen
(4) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375774174_
An_analysis_of_excess_mortality_based_on_age_and_sex_the_possible_role_of_Covid 19_delayed_care_and_vaccines
(5) Table 6 of the Spreadsheet downloadable here
(6) Monitoring mortality rates in the Netherlands | RIVM
Follow up on excess mortality sterftemonitor.nl
Nothing to argue with your reasoning regarding the actual expected mortality. Six years of primary school arithmetic should be more than enough to understand it.
The next question that naturally arises: what about the correlation between vaccination status and mortality; However, that is probably not one but many bridges too far at the moment
Of course, the House of Representatives is not going to do anything with this. They are all up to their necks in it and have no interest in the supposedly unsavory truth.
So work to be done and keep speaking up. Take virus varia as an example. Maurice is back at op1, Dick Bijl (overnu.nl) is back in Radar, in my eyes unexpected guests at blckbx, etc. That's very nice! It takes quite a long time before one wakes up from hypnosis or wants to wake up. So there is no need to give in because one turns slowly. For the time being, there is still a lot of disinformation in the mainstream media. Don't give up, take heart, we are not alone!
A trial has been started at the criminal court in The Hague against Von Der Leyen Boerla etc , the same in Leeuwarden against Hugo Rutte Kuipers and also Bill Gates and Alexander Boerla by foundation "Recht op Recht , see their summonses ! The State of Texas is doing the same against Pfizer Arizona has banned and recalled ALL jabs after investigation, in Germany ditto, but bigger nml against 599 virologists judges etc so all responsible people such as Lauterbach and associates, thousands of reports and research results come to the surface, Japanese scientists call it a massacre, from Slovakia to New Zealand, Australia, Canada, everywhere people now see the truth in it, this was a mass genocide, the FvD has been proven right about everything, up to the American proxie war against Russia via the Ukraine! Covid Climate war digital identity digi money and fear = WEF of Klaus Schwab = 15 min cities = 0 farmers + 0 meat and cars !!
We will be present in the House of Representatives on Thursday. I'm curious how that goes. I signed up, and in principle would attend the 15.00 session on excess mortality. Apparently limited number of places. Not entirely clear. But let's see how that goes.
Nice Cees! Have you perhaps already checked whether there is a live stream and what the link is?
There certainly is, Anton. Will be listed here: https://www.tweedekamer.nl/debat_en_vergadering/livedebatten
And perhaps also on TV via channel NPO Politics.
I see that Hans has already answered.
I can't send an attachment here, but something strikes me.
Yesterday I also looked at this website (House of Representatives: https://www.tweedekamer.nl/debat_en_vergadering/plenaire_vergaderingen/details/activiteit?id=2023A07633)
and then Pieter Omtzigt himself was on the list of speakers on behalf of NSC. Today I see that Agnes Joseph is on the list on behalf of NSC. I don't know if that means anything, but Omtzigt was of course the one who brought it up. I assume for a moment that Mrs. Joseph is just as critical as Pieter Omtzigt.
FvD is not listed.
Debate on excess mortality
Name: Political group: Speaking time:
1. A.S. Joseph NSC 4 min
2. M. Agema PVV 4 min
3. C.A.M. van der Plas BBB 4 min
4. J.P. Dike SP 4 min
5. J.Z.C.M. Tielen VVD 4 min
6. D.J.H. (Diederik) van Dijk SGP 4 min
7. T.J. Bushoff, GroenLinks-PvdA, 4 min
8. W. Paulusma D66 4 min
Intriguing, that one thumbs down on an article like this. Is there a virologist watching perhaps, or a science journalist?
Yes, you see that from time to time. Very intriguing. Admit that you're spreading disinformation, Anton:-).
Good right, of course, for everyone to disagree with something. But I'm curious about the arguments. So here's an invitation to the thumbs down: What exactly are your objections to the content of the above article? Maybe there are inaccuracies in it?
You'll have seen these:
https://pandauncut.substack.com/p/caught-in-their-own-trap?publication_id=962215&post_id=141668096&isFreemail=true&r=126uyo&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Nice summary of all the 'facts' used by the 'scientists' of FDA, followed by breaking down on pure logic.
Then you really count now 😉
For me for a long time! Thank you very much!
Placed this one at Maurice's:
I was in the public gallery yesterday. I already see several comments below. A detailed report by Pieter that is completely correct. And some observations about the level of discussion. Unfortunately all agree. Can just let you hear my own observations. Some things that stood out.
Everything had run late, so we had some votes on various motions. Among other things, a motion by Eerdmans on the formation of a right-wing cabinet. That vote (we did not know the exact content of the motion) ended in an exact draw. 73 to 73. What was striking was that NSC voted against. Against a right-wing government, in other words....
Then a debate about waiting lists for transgender surgeries. Wieke Paulusma (deep sigh) and a Green Left lady really thought that something had to be done about this. Good, rational comments from NSC (Hertzberger) who indicated that no one knows the long-term effects of these growth inhibitors. That in a number of countries these expirations have stopped, and that it might be advisable to ask yourself why so many children (because that's what they are) want to undergo a gender change. The left-wing ladies didn't think that was necessary. The outgoing minister Helder also brushed aside all of Hertzberger's objections. Not a mature discussion, and not really a democracy at work. Bosma did very well.
Then the long-awaited discussion about excess mortality. In the "left" oriented 4 minute introductions, the word vaccinations did not appear. The "vulnerable" (I hate that word so much) are so pathetic that they die faster because of it. yes right, exactly since 2021....
The common thread I found is that everyone agrees that the health data should be transparent. And that it has to be done without high costs, even for longer periods.
Gideon van Meijeren. He's 100% right with what he's saying, but he's kicking around too wildly. In doing so, he is divisive. Attacks BBB and PVV. Everyone agrees that access to vaccination/health data should be better regulated. Then try to form a united front with all parties on that subject instead of looking for nails at low water about voting behavior in the past. I think Bosma should have intervened there. They wandered off completely. The minister sat there and watched, and of course thought the discord was fine. It's nice to be right, but it's more important to finally get to the truth. Missed opportunity to form a front towards the cabinet.
The good news is that no one denied that there is excess mortality. Looks like the CBS/RIVM scam doesn't work. Unfortunately, we had to leave, and because of the delay in the meetings, we did not see the minister's reaction.
But to say that we have attended a democratic process with high-quality debates? No.
It is obvious that the cause the most misery (excess mortality is only part of it). Serious research is trained. Sentiment is slowly shifting, but on the left people continue to rely on the jabs.
The number of participants in this debate was very low. Maybe 8 people in the room. Omtzigt himself didn't bother either. Mrs. Joseph did well, but could be a little brighter. Completely up to date in terms of content. Public gallery was absolutely low occupied, and during the excess mortality 'debate' people just walked away.
We don't have Andrew Bridgen in the ranks unfortunately.