We have had incredible bad luck. A sample from Wuhan grown in the ski huts in northern Italy and from there injected directly into the carnival noise in NL, DE and BE. You can't think of much worse.
The seemingly 'exponential' curve was created by a small group of people who infected packed cafes for three days in a row. It therefore seemed much more serious and contagious than it was at the beginning of the outbreak. In normal life, there would have been no such exponential growth. That has put everyone on the wrong track.
('I don't expect much damage from Carnival', said Jaap van Dissel. At first I thought it was fake news. Now I don't like bashing, but the damage that the RIVM has caused with all the underestimations and misinformation is hardly incalculable.)
At any other time, we could have sufficed with some distancing and face masks – assuming there had been any. If we would have found it necessary at all, because we normally never do face masks and distancing. We could use it to protect several thousand compatriots every year against certain flu death, but we don't think that's necessary.
