In this article we show that flu (by which we mean all respiratory infections such as Influenza) is not able to explain the unexplained mortality since 2021. We compare the mortality waves during corona time with the flu waves before and after.
We will first map the flu and use the official WHO website GISRS in which the Influenza test figures are published.
GISRS Influenza figures
On the website ofGISRSwe requested a graph for the Influenza figures in the Netherlands.
This concerns the number of samples with a positive result, not the number of deaths from influenza. This allows us to immediately explain a number of details.
The flu waves from 2022 onwards have approximately 6 times as many positive tests as those before 2020. We also see a large number of positive samples in 2019, while there was virtually no flu at the time. We can therefore only assess these figures qualitatively. The waves mark the periods when the virus spread.
Even stranger is the 2020 Influenza. It starts around the turn of the year and ends abruptly in mid-March, at the same time as the first deaths from Covid-19. The first influenza was not registered again until 2022. So it appears that in those almost two years the flu disappeared and all flu-like deaths were attributed to Covid-19.
That was also in accordance with theWHO instructions dated April 20, 2020.
CBS was therefore obliged to report Covid-19 as the cause of death in case of flu-like deaths. This makes it plausible that no deaths from influenza were reported during the corona period.
But we are looking at the role of influenza against the background of unexplained excess mortality. The GISRS graph is helpful in assigning the flu waves.
A model
We would actually like to read the number of deaths directly from the GISRS figures, but we can only use it to determine the start and end of a flu wave. We do see that the flu waves always follow the same course and also match the observed excess mortality (except at the start of the first wave!). In this graph, flu and excess mortality come together.
We see that the excess mortality figures (the black line) closely follow the Influenza figures. We also see that there has been under-mortality since March 2018. This phenomenon is described in our article aboutmortality displacement. The progression is described in a simplified manner in a model, indicated by the purple line. And in figures: the mortality during this flu wave was 5564; the subsequent under-mortality was 4898. On balance, there were 666 more deaths in that year than if there had been no flu.
We then apply this model to the flu waves published by GISRS. The heights are determined by the observed (extra) excess mortality during the flu waves, the contours according to the model we use for 2018.
We see 7 flu waves here, with the 2019 wave being very small, but if we look closely at the figures, it was there. For the first corona wave, we only see the start, because administratively speaking, there was no more influenza from March 2020. We also include the corona waves, using the peaks of excess mortality as a reference. We consider the Delta wave to be corona, although the GGD considered only 26% of this wave as Covid-19.
In the next step we project the model figures into the graph with excess mortality.
The first thing that stands out is that the under-mortality described by the model is no longer reflected in the excess mortality figures from 2021. We will still see this in 2020, but partly due to the heat wave in August 2020, this under-mortality will not be reached.
Net excess mortality
The aim of reconstructing the excess mortality as a result of the flu waves is to gain a better insight into mortality that cannot be explained by respiratory diseases (flu and Covid-19). To this end, we reduce the observed excess mortality with the model calculation for mortality from influenza. In this graph we see the result as “Net Excess Mortality”.
The figures from 2018 to 2020 are uncorrected and therefore show the actual excess mortality. From 2021 onwards, corrections will be made for the estimated mortality from flu and what remains is the unexplained excess mortality.
The challenge is therefore to find an explanation for this excess mortality. This will therefore start in the first week of February 2021 with an excess mortality of around 8%. In the following years, it seems to gradually decrease to 6% in 2025. If we look specifically at mortality in the summers, we still see a significant under-mortality of 5% in 2020, while after the second wave there is an 8% excess mortality in the middle of the summers.
Norm mortality
The most criticism of analyzes such as ours is that too little account is taken of aging. However, that criticism is completely unjustified. The substantiation for our baseline can be found in our articleVan verwachtingen naar normsterfte. This model is not only based on the aging of the population, but also on the slowly decreasing risk of mortality over the years. It is the same calculation that CBS used during the corona years. The only difference is that our calculation method ispublic and publishedis.
Critics often assume that the risk of mortality will no longer decrease from 2020 onwards. Our baseline would therefore not increase sufficiently and thus increase excess mortality. We now see that even without adjustment of the expected mortality, the observed mortality is slowly returning to our Standard Mortality. The excess mortality that we observe cannot therefore be explained by a lagging prognosis for the baseline.
Corona prevents flu?
It is intriguing that from the moment corona appeared, the flu was immediately displaced. As if corona is able to prevent the flu. This phenomenon is also calledThe Vanishing trick of virusesmentioned and is described, among other things, in the articleThe magical return of the flu and the reason behind it. The principle is that the virus that is dominant at that moment displaces all other viruses. That was also the case with corona. Corona prevented flu, which therefore did not have a chance until the end of 2021.
Flu prevents corona?
The opposite happened at the end of 2021. The spread of the corona virus had decreased and flu had a chance again. There were heavy flu waves in both 2022 and 2023, with the one in 2023 causing even more deaths than that in 2018. But the flu did prevent the corona virus from making any more victims:The Vanishing trick of viruses.
A de Deltagolf?
With this knowledge, we now look at the Delta wave, sandwiched between corona and flu waves. Remarkably, the Delta wave was more severe than the 2018 flu wave. 5,564 additional deaths during the flu wave, compared to 8,719 during the Delta wave. So despite the vaccinations, more than during the first wave where everyone was still unvaccinated!
What was also special was that the figures from GGD and CBS contradicted each other. According to the GGD, the Delta Wave consisted of only 26% corona and the rest was "something else". CBS, on the other hand, found that 80% was corona, prompted by theWHO guideline. If we assume the accuracy of the GGD figures, this corresponds to a protection against death by the vaccines of 60%. See the article for detailsThe great secret of the Delta Golf.This also fits with the idea that corona prevents flu. Mortality shifted again from corona to flu and vaccination would have been helpful. This shift also fuels the pharmaceutical industry's conclusion that vaccination prevents death from Covid-19. But here we should actually read:vaccination shifts cause of death from Covid-19 to flu.
However, the reporting surrounding the Delta wave was that it was entirely attributable to the corona variant that appeared at that time: the Delta variant. But there has never been active reporting that it was about “something else”. Because the guidelines prescribed that all suspicious deaths had to be attributed to Covid-19, there was also no registration of Influenza at the WHO. Or was there really no one with the flu?
Flu, corona and “something else”
The final step is to clarify the excess mortality due to flu and corona compared to unexplained mortality: “something else”.
The excess mortality from flu is purple again and we have colored corona green and continues below the 0 line as undermortality. The red line is the mortality that we must attribute to “something else” if we want to make it completely correct. Only when we show the figures in this way do we become aware of the fact that the structural mortality from "something else" is much greater than that during the flu and corona waves.
In addition, death from a respiratory disease shortens life by an average of six months. Until we have a conclusive explanation for “something else”, we can only guess at that number of years surrendered. There is therefore no indication that this concerns people in their final phase of life. A conservative estimate could well be 5 years. In this way, since 2020 we have reached 20,000 years of life lost due to flu and corona, compared to 300,000 years of life lost due to “something else” (still based on those 5 years lost).
Causes of unexplained excess mortality
We are therefore looking for a cause for the unexplained mortality since February 2021. Delayed care is often mentioned as a cause. Not only is it completely illogical that this has manifested itself suddenly and for a long time, exactly since the first week of 2021, it is also not substantiated with figures. Moreover, excess mortality immediately after vaccination has also been found in countries without deferred care. Read about this e.g.Deferred care and excess mortality.
Incomplete registration of Covid-19 is a popular cause among the media. But the figures are based on deaths, regardless of the cause of death. We do correct for the flu waves, but these only determine the course over time. The under-mortality after the excess mortality almost completely compensates for this.
The lifting of “the measures” is also mentioned as a cause. But at best these only ensure that epidemic waves are leveled out over time, as we see, for example, with the second wave. This was leveled out through the “Flatten the curve" principle. Mortality is distributed over a larger period of time by measures. Read for example.this article.
That leaves the most logical explanation. Vaccinations that started to pick up steam in February 2021, at the same time as the sudden increase in excess mortality. There have been proven deaths caused by vaccination, but it is impossible to mass test suspected deaths through autopsy. On the other hand, there is no evidence that vaccines are safe, despite pharmaceutical claims that they are. For example, read our articleHow safe is safe?.
According to CBS, it is not the vaccines either, because they actually cause 30% less mortalityLevelin the first 3 months after vaccination and now alsoFrench scientific research, which promises the same effect for no less than 4 years. So even though those vaccines miraculously made us healthier, we still die 8% more often than before this “elixir of life” became available. Also read:French study: less mortality and more suicide among vaccinated people.
Conclusions
Corona keeps us focused. From 2020 to 2022, corona replaced influenza. From 2022 onwards, the flu has replaced corona again. The delta wave appears to be a transitional phase and consisted largely of “something else”. This wave also came very early in the season. In October 2021, almost at the same time as the boosters were installed.
After the first wave, under-mortality occurred, just like with flu. However, after the end of the second wave, this under-mortality did not occur and we only saw excess mortality, which, after correction for flu waves, fell structurally from 8% in February 2021 to around 5% in 2025.
From 2022 onwards we were faced with waves of flu, which meant that corona no longer had a chance. However, the first two flu waves were more powerful than the 2017 and 2018 flu.
The big question now is what the vaccines to combat corona have contributed to displacing respiratory diseases. If corona is able to displace flu, doesn't vaccination against corona ensure that flu gets another chance? Even if vaccination were not responsible for the unexplained excess mortality, is the alleged protection against Covid-19 not a pig in a poke? A carefully chosen formulation by the pharmaceutical industry created the illusion that there are health benefits from vaccinating against corona.
Nevertheless, the pharmaceutical industry is still committed to combating corona and ignores the unexplained excess mortality of 8% per year since 2021. The pharmaceutical industry also has no evidence that the vaccines are safe enough. Causality is unproven: they are just numbers. Causality has been proven in autopsies - but the figures are lacking. We are waiting for a research assignment from the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport to further investigate an obvious hypothesis.
“Flu shot is the solution” 😉 oh wait, it is and has been administered en masse for years and years. The corona shot does not prevent corona, but it would prevent serious illness and death from Covid. Marketing has been that way for a while now. (I won't mention the terrible mistakes from before again). The studies that MK mentions in the Volkskrant show a short effect to prevent serious illness and death and could be a quick conclusion, more than 5 months per year. I also read that corona shows difficult behavior by not having a fixed pattern like the flu (winter). So why is the injection taking place in the autumn? Injecting at least twice a year seems to me, doesn't it? MK always uses some phrases that he comes back to later if he turns out to be wrong: "I already wrote that here and here and was already critical there and there." Furthermore, strong words such as "tsunami" of his right. The article above clearly shows the cause of “something else”, but people are happily tinkering with it even with traffic fatalities (are they unwell or the lane assist or both?), “fortunately” the corona shot also helps here…
How long will it take before it is officially admitted that something is really wrong from 2021……..
Very little by little it is released. Partly because a number of foreign countries also do that. They cannot be left behind. But it happens so slowly that it doesn't really hit the average citizen. Very slowly because if everything is thrown on the table at once, chaos will break out and people will quite rightly flock to The Hague to dethrone the government. Those hypocrites knew what was going on and allowed it to happen. The MPs who knew from the start and called for a stop to everything are still being completely demonized with lies and backbiting. The more these real representatives of the people put the facts on the table and the closer the election moment comes, the more demonization takes its course. We see it happen every time.
Is it not likely that “popular” deferred care and “something else” contribute significantly to the significant trend break? Because wasn't it Eline vd Broek, for example, who already pointed out postponed care at that time, partly due to market forces in healthcare and chronically longer waiting lists.
In any case, more research will take a long time in my opinion; the risk of damage, shame and disgrace (for civil servants and politicians) is great and difficult or impossible to bear. But good article again Anton, keep the pressure on.
All credit to Herman
When Covid came to the country, not only did the flu disappear, but ALL diseases associated with problems in and around the chest disappeared. Pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, pneumonia, emphysema, etc.
Weird how does this happen?
Well, if you as a doctor are too lazy to even take an ECG of people who came to the emergency room with all the signs of myocardial infarction/covid... That hypothesis can be investigated with a piece of cake.
But no, we won't investigate that anyway. We simply say that it is -perhaps- due to the cleaner air, as some professional explains in some newspaper.
https://archive.ph/o5NxB
And in the academy we keep our mouths shut about it. It has remained that way to this day!
I wonder how all this is measured. Very few people clearly die from a specific cause. If you are unlucky enough to hit a tree on your head, or are pushed into the wrong lane by lane assist, it is clear. But flu deaths usually have some comorbidities, it's not a binary.
I don't know how flu or Covid-19 is diagnosed, but if it is diagnosed with a PCR test then I don't have much confidence. For example, is there a specific PCR test to determine Covid and a specific PCR test to determine flu? If you carry out Covid tests en masse because it is assumed that there is a Covid wave, then the PCR test will only find Covid cases. And vice versa of course. If there is a specific flu PCR test and it is used en masse on people with respiratory infections, then you will find flu.
So: if you look for flu you will find flu, if you look for Covid you will find Covid. This is under the assumption that the PCR test is used, which as we know is not reliable (I am expressing myself cautiously). I think it is relevant to understand how the source data was created. Who decides on what grounds which cause of death is entered on a death form?
Suppose a PCR test worked, then you would have to test people with a respiratory infection for both flu and Covid to determine which of the two was the cause.
The “something else” category remains completely intact, and that is of course the problem. The excess mortality. The flu/covid distribution is unbelievable, as you also indicate. Add Covid and flu together and then you know how many people are suffering from a respiratory disease according to the death forms.
Counted flu by general practitioners after anamnesis and clinical (physical) examination. This is how a flu epidemic is diagnosed. Additional tests (often in hospital can be confirmatory). That went completely wrong with the figures (PCR tests) during the corona period. The PCR test with all its carelessness should have led to every doctor anyway. Then there are the cause of death forms. Family members are not allowed to read the final conclusion. In my opinion, these are multiple recipes for 'finding what you want to find' and 'not looking where you should look'. A lot of money is usually thrown at the wrong intentions (not always bad ones) and with the help of the mainstream media, it is completely covered up, if it weren't for the fact that there are people who keep stirring things up. We'll see!
Thanks, C. I think your answer confirms my suspicions. All respiratory infections are similar in symptoms. If I have the flu or Covid or whatever, it's in my upper respiratory tract. Sinuses clogged, etc. For my wife it always manifests itself in the lower respiratory tract, coughing, a lot of coughing. So this is always the case. Completely independent of which type of flu. The body determines the symptoms, not an external factor. That's how I see it now. Also in December 2020, when Covid was detected via PCR. I was 5 years younger then and a lot more naive….
So if you write in the newspapers that a flu epidemic is coming and people go to the doctor with a respiratory disease, the diagnosis will be flu. After all, that rules.
I think it is relevant because it indicates that this is also driven by the media. About 2 months ago there was a warning about a serious flu wave! Panic everywhere.
To what extent are those sewage measurements valid? Can they distinguish between the various conditions, or do they make the same assumptions?
(c, apologies for the late posting: this comment ended up in the Trash for some reason, among hundreds of Russian spam messages. Your other comments have been posted, so here's this one for completeness.
Anton.)
Colleague was sick last week, flu. Back at the office he said, "I'll be late tomorrow because I'm going to our doctor with my wife. She also has the flu now." "Annoying. More serious than you?" A logical question in my view. “No, the same, but she has a very good relationship with our doctor and so do I”… The question that came to my mind but did not express is “Would these flu cases now count as 1 or 2?” Sewage measurements and how they are carried out already interested me before the corona period. Also by a former student of one of my children who has become a specialist in this field. I know more people, including someone who works in a laboratory in a hospital designated by the government who had to conduct research into "the variants" during the corona period. Partly because of their stories, I have lost all confidence in contemporary research. That is why I no longer make statements about what is (was) measured in the sewage water. I have heard that the corona measurements or reporting thereof have now stopped. Restoring trust in most scientists has yet to begin.
people don't die from the flu. But from pneumonia. Pneumonia. A bacterium. Or if they are unlucky and end up in hospital with sepsis.
Reduced resistance (deficiency of vitamin D), bad air, breathing in a lot of dirty particles and presto, you can set the clock for it: a flu epidemic. The PCR test is indeed the crux of the story. THE CT values. You can turn every piece of protein into a Covid story. People without symptoms also tested positive and were still labeled as 'dangerous' even though they did not become ill themselves. It went down like a charm. Asymptomatic infections? How? How has that been proven? Well not. Just shout out and if people get Covid and haven't been around anyone who was sick. well then it must have come from someone who had no symptoms (yet). Dogmas are persistent. Especially if a revenue model sticks. What if respiratory infections are not caused by viruses? But due to poor environmental conditions? What if flu is not contagious? Because how exactly has this been researched? The Rosenau experiments (1918!) show that it is not contagious. But yes. It is rammed into it and no one wonders anymore whether it is all true.
https://www.ggarchives.com/Influenza/TheRosenauExperiment-1918-1919.html
“Corona keeps us on our toes. From 2020 to 2022, corona replaced flu”
They have now also started to believe in fairy tales with virus variants.
I also had trouble with this, but there is no hard data to deny it. It is Herman's article, he seeks connection with the official data to strengthen his basic arguments. That's how I see it.
I personally think that the measurements and registrations are too unreliable for fine-grained analyses. But I'm glad Herman perseveres and tries anyway.
Other,
Thanks for your comment.
There are also no hard data to acknowledge it.
The problem with people like Herman, no matter how great the work he does, is that he remains trusting of a corrupt government.
Then you get these crooked arguments to make the story work in his head.
While the story is not correct, has never been correct and will never be correct.
Greeting
Johnny
Let us separately qualify the scientists who are still in active service of an organization and the retired (emeritus). Most so-called scientists who sit at the left-wing discussion tables in the media have been selected for their views and statements. If they do not follow the government narrative, they will not come to the table or will not be interviewed by the MSM, so they can be less trusted in the story. At least I make that distinction. Those who follow alternative media channels know who I mean.