Six weeks ago, on 5 February, science journalist Maarten Keulemans denounced "armchair epidemiologist" Herman Steigstra in a "Bewaartweet". Maarten is a statistical denier and therefore does not believe that mortality will probably go back to about 40 to 50 unexplained deaths per day, at the end of March. That was Herman's prognosis, see the red dot line in the tweet. That line is simply based on the pattern from Nov-21 to April-22, but with lower numbers because the mortality peak remained lower. As soon as the summit was rounded, calculations could be made. In retrospect, the period should also have been a bit shorter because the flu dip now appears to have passed faster than predicted. That's a lesson for next time.
[Original title: "After the flu dip a week with 69 unexplained deaths per day". The mortality has been adjusted downwards afterwards, so that is also allowed with the title.]
In that graph, which Maarten retweets with a chuckle here, we do indeed see that the forecast of 5 February indicates that we will end up at the unexplained elevated baseline again at the end of March.
If we look at previous dips, you could have expected a peak after each dip. Medics may wonder why, but you see it surprisingly often after an under-mortality dip, such a bouncing peak.
Of course, Ruben van Gaalen trumpets the same kolder on behalf of CBS. "There is no #oversterfte." That's like saying "there's no warming" after a cold day or "there's no winter" after a hot day.
You would expect a little more vision and some interpretation from a statistical institute. Anyway, we'll have to make do with it.
As Kees de Kort said in April 2020: "It is not easy to do everything wrong because something always goes right. But they really do everything, everything, everything wrong."
Does it matter?
In the updated graph below, now about 6 weeks later, the blue line is the CBS excess mortality line. The latest mortality rate is indicated with a circle: an excess mortality of 349 in this week alone or approx. 11% (!) or 50 PER DAY (!!!). Because this could very well be such a "bounce peak", it is likely that in a few weeks we will stabilize again around 40 to 50 per day. That's a full coach driving into a ravine every day. There were times when such an event made headlines. And if it happened more often, all touring cars were taken off the road until the problem was figured out. But the car manufacturer keeps the construction drawings against its chest, so we drive on. "That happens sometimes with touring cars. You can say what you want about them, but they get you where you need to be."
This virus varia chart is slightly different from Herman's. I put the unexplained excess mortality on the baseline, the other mortality is stacked on top of that. This makes the trend a bit more visible. I drew the green stripe line over it. Whether that line lasts and for how long, or whether it is a curve that slowly falls, that is not yet visible. Even a slight increase is not excluded.
That green dash line therefore indicates the excess mortality trend. Large peaks and valleys that the model correctly predicted are more or less netted and the flat parts count more heavily. Even during the dips, even during reduced mortality below the normal baseline, this unexplained mortality has continued. We have been in a period of structural excess mortality for almost two years now. How does CBS manage to say: "there is no excess mortality"?
Unilaterally informed
The consequence of a government or media bombardment, coupled with censorship and ridiculing of other views, is that the population does not know the facts or does not believe them. Anyone who points out facts is dismissed as an "armchair epidemiologist" or as a "WEF/corona/climate/vaccine conspiracy theorist". It is propaganda from which the blood is now beginning to drip, there is a Point of no return reached. This can no longer be rectified.
Politicians have also been misled. When Thierry Baudet insists in the House of Representatives for an urgent debate to be held in response to the shocking statements of the German Minister of Health about vaccination damage and mortality, he is accused by MPs of "spreading fake news" (literally!). At a debate on national television, just after Rob Trip explained the rules ("no personal attacks"), Baudet is told by a party chairman that he probably still has a pair of "brown boots in the closet" suggesting that he is a fascist.
That's typically the argument of people having no facts available. And journalists just let it run.
This is not just below level. As far as level is concerned, MPs should no longer surprise us: after all, having a critical discussion is a matter of file knowledge and intelligence and most MPs lack both. In that respect, they are well-characterized representatives of the people, as inconspicuous middleweights. They shouldn't be.
A representative of the people should be a "primus inter pares", the first among his peers. Someone who has something to say, someone with a vision and a backbone, who is asked to come forward by others. Nowadays, you only float up in the system if you talk along with what is considered mainstream within your bubble. Self-will and a critical view, that only works against it. Once in the bubble in The Hague, they just as easily let themselves be separated from their supporters "in this house" on their way to the next, possibly international career opportunity.
Vaccination readiness is fought with the life (of others)
So how do the Dutch generally inform themselves? Through quality newspapers, talk shows and representatives of government institutions. They talk with one mouth. The importance that is paramount is to monitor the willingness to vaccinate. Side effects are covered up so that the vaccines are nowhere near as safe and effective as they are predicted.
Take another look at keulemans' save tweet. Just read a few WOB documents that literally state that vaccination readiness ("preventing unrest") is more important than reporting damage and mortality. When AstraZeneca received many reports to the Lareb hotline, the government felt that the reputation needed to be improved, not that the vaccine should be looked at. It is suggested that ambassadors and stakeholders could work on it in the media. Articles in RTL Nieuws/AD were considered. Lareb has been helping to maintain vaccination readiness from the start (treachery of Agnes Kant, never sought after her) when the nature of that institution should be the opposite: to pay attention to whether everything is going well. Read for yourself the mind-boggling screenshots on the Substack van Cees van den Bos, this is one of them:
Slept in, democracy!
Government and media collectively mislead the population. The population votes on the basis of the information they have been inculcated: a false reality. The government-dependent, non-critical media outlets are thus steering voters in a clear direction. But, to quote Keulemans' list: the WEF does tinker with the foundations of sovereign democracies. The coronavirus policy has been a festival of errors with misleading messages that we cannot rule out as having led to deaths – and that has been put cautiously. Science no longer exists at government institutions. The climate is important, but that does not mean that you can use it as an instrument to achieve inhumane ideologies.
And then comes the moment when rivm flyerer Maarten Keulemans "slept out". Like "We're stronger because power just clumps together." There's no stopping it and he's proud of it. (He forgets Ukraine in his list, by the way.)
Democracy has "wiped out" BVNL and FVD because it has been deceived. Deceived by her own authorities in The Hague and by the docile media. With an effect not only on Jan with the hat but also on the actions of doctors, agents, decision-makers and judges. The media should have been the last lifeline for the now outlawed citizens.
What a wonderful feeling, isn't it, Maarten, that power. Maybe you can borrow Thierry's brown boots once, then you can ask Ruben how they look to you.
excess mortality of 485 or approx. 13%(!) or 69 in this week alone(!!!). Because this is very
Did you perhaps mean per day instead of per week?
Indeed! I'll adjust it. Thanks.
As for the elections, I still support the FVD, but I voted BBB anyway, because I really want something to change in this country now, this is no longer possible. And from the FVD you know in advance that Sat will be sidelined, then that is a lost vote. I chose BBB for that reason, so I would like to add water to the wine. But actually, you might as well not vote
Baudet has substance and vision, undeniably. He posed a threat to the incumbent. And that's why he was framed with the toughest political means imaginable: disseminator of disinformation, conspiracy theorist, right-wing extremist (read: Nazi). As you often see with highly intelligent people, Baudet also showed a certain naivety, in his actions and statements. And that played into the hands of his opponents.
Nevertheless, I voted FvD again. Because despite his shortcomings, Baudet is very often right. Few examples: In 2016, he predicted that Russia would one day retaliate against the provocations committed by the West in Ukraine. Has come true! In 2018, he predicted that climate policy would lead to an explosion in energy prices. He was laughed at in the Chamber, but it did come true! And after a hesitant start, he took a strong stand against all corona measures (lockdown, curfew, vaccinations). Here, too, he turned out to be completely in his right.
What I said, Baudet is a man with vision, a true politician with foresight. These are extremely rare in current politics.
It doesn't always pay to be Galilee or Einstein.
What Theo says about Baudet is 100% correct; with Caroline's word choices, he had made it a lot further, too bad. I don't know if he realizes it ("realizes" you have to say :) these days), but his loved ones should whisper it to him...
For the rest a great piece, Anton
Goed stuk, Anton! Geheel mee eens. Helaas staan de mainstream media volledig onder controle van de cabal, de verstrengelde elitefamilies die via allerlei kanalen hun machtswellust over ons botvieren. Daarbij horen, naast Klaus (WEF), Bill & Melinda, George (Soros), de Rockefellers, Vanguard, Blackrock, etc., ook hun paladijnen Mark, Sigrid, Hugo, Wopke, Justin, Rishi, Angela, Emmanuel, Joe en nog zo wat meer. De uitrol van de vaccins na de labontsnapping (na jaren van gevaarlijk werk met coronavirussen, o.a. door EcoHealth Alliance, Chapel Hill, en Wuhan) is, naar nu naar voren komt, georkestreerd ten behoeve van de cabal, de echte ‘makers’ van de pandemieperikelen. Dit ten koste van de vele duizenden doden, door hen veroorzaakt. Plus de vele immuun- en anderszins verzwakten. Baudet is inderdaad een man MET ruggegraat, die het beestje gewoon bij de naam noemt. Gewoon, zoals het is, geen rimram eromheen. Ik vermoed dat Caroline voor veel mensen ook zo’n persoon is die door mensen ‘geloofd’ wordt, in tegenstelling tot Mark, Sigrid, Wopke, en Hugo, maar ook Jesse en Attje (om maar niet te spreken over Judith, Wieke en Joba). Hoofdoorzaak van de huidige situatie van verwarring, wantrouwen en radeloosheid bij veel mensen: de explosie van huichelarij en leugens zoals die over ons uitgestort werden tijdens corona. Mensen zijn nu inderdaad meer wakker en zien de werkelijkheid, inclusief de vaccinatieleugens, van de afgelopen 3 jaar veel beter.
Thanks again, Anton. We have been thinking for some time that the narrative is going to collapse. It's really not true at all. From the cause (lableak was ridiculed as the cause, and still is), to the severity of the disease, to the idiotic measures and the experimental 'vaccines'. Even the former head of the CDC (Redfield) testifies that only one narrative was allowed. The WOB documents of Cees van den Bos.... How clear do you want it to be that we have indeed been cheated? That there was a conscious fear?
But there is still censorship. And that is very bad. Through blurry models, coercive measures are declared on the bastards. I never studied the details of the nitrogen story, but there is also a model behind that with only 1 solution. Anyone who doubts is dismissed as a conspiracy theorist or extreme right. Farmers are expropriated on the basis of a spreadsheet. Gee, polarization? Why would that be?
Let's just hope it ever gets through.
I am afraid of the course of the green stripe line towards the future. Given how Steigstra modeled it, I think it should drop again after a year after the last round of jabs. (right?)
However, I think that the long-term effects of the jab are not all over after 1 year. Such a spike factory can lead to weakening in a (stroke) vein that suddenly ruptures at moment x, does not have to be done within a year. And probably many factories here and there in the veins. Or suppose that such a spike factory has found a well-protected place and is not quickly demolished. This can continuously occupy the immune system, weakening it. Well, I'm just a layman. I'm sure I'm not right.
I mean, Steigstra's model assumes zero excess mortality after a year. So I don't believe in that. But I hope he's right :). (waener = were)
That long term was chosen at random. There were no dates to estimate at the time. It seems to be pretty constant now. If it turns out to deviate in a few months, that curve will be calculated and we will get a new forecast for the further future.
Nicely worded Anton:
Quote: "Nowadays, you only float up in the system when you talk along with what is considered mainstream within your bubble." This is exactly what is happening within the constituency of the ministries. A big mindless mush. So that ministers don't know is partly due to the average policy officer in The Hague. Executive officials, i.e. who often have contact with the citizen, are completely different and still have some form of empathy and thinking.
Strong piece. Well written too. More and more often I can't get through it. This is a relief. Thought it was down to age.