For the time being, the RIVM models are only being followed sparingly. Or, as it has been in the newspapers in recent days: "corona peak is not happening". That peak was actually not possible at all; The doomsday stories were simply Driven by fear and riskavoidance. Then a discrepancy arises, especially if every miscalculation can be blamed on the behavior of the people.
Look, you could see a few weeks ago that the terrifying 'doubling per week' (by OMT members on Radio1) was absolutely wrong, people refused to get sick then, very disobediently. That forecast has now been reduced to a doubling every two to three weeks. That is quite a comprehensible perspective now that summer is only two months away.
The 170,000 infections per day previously circulated, on the other hand, turned out to be based on a calculation error (not from the RIVM – from the Ministry of Health and Welfare; that is a very reassuring thought!). But it must be said: We certainly did not pull out all the stops to reach that 170,000. You have to do that together. Indeed, we don't really cooperate.
According to the new curve, which is now different from what was explained in detail a few weeks ago, we will be over 12,000 infections per day in 4 weeks, at the end of March. What is expected of us to achieve that?
Are we going to achieve that at all? Let's take a look.
How we can work together on 12,000 infections
More and more studies show that measures make little or no sense, except for strict quarantine of the sick and breathing fresh air. So that is promising. The third wave is indeed feasible; We have to do our best for that.
Worldwide, the virus is on the decline and summer is also coming to us. That curve will not go up by itself. We need guidelines to follow together, otherwise that third wave will never happen because . Fortunately, these guidelines have been provided by the RIVM. We can confidently follow the most important basic rules from
the "Basic document on prevention behaviour and well-beingn" of the RIVM Corona Behavioural Unit. The result of a year of blasting science and hard practical lessons: Read along.
It's as simple as that. This, in a nutshell, is the basis on which the virologists work. I will explain the concise enumeration point by point so that it becomes clear why these rules are important for creating the next wave together.
Washing hands
Corona is a respiratory virus so it is hardly passed on through indirect contact. Unfortunately, we have now unlearned to shake hands, which could contribute a little bit but not enough for the desired increase. However, washing hands can do little harm and does help against, for example, norovirus that gives you diarrhea, very annoying. So just do it.
One and a half meters away
This is an ideal rule for the virus because it prefers to spread indoors. Thanks to the 1.5 meter rule, people think that they can be in the same room for a long time, as long as they keep their distance. Working from home is a good example of this. The virus therefore has every opportunity to spread through one or more rooms and to mix with the breath of all those present – which may include a few susceptible people. Provide an air conditioner or air heater so that the air dries thoroughly. With mechanical ventilation, you help the virus to reach other rooms as well.
Calling a GP
Always good. The assistant can probably help you further because the doctor is not allowed by the RIVM to prescribe any of the drugs that can cure your corona. So don't worry. The most important first-line virus treatment is: getting sick. Wait and see, painkiller here, fever inhibitor there. In case of severe long-term symptoms: go to the hospital.
Staying at home with symptoms
Most infections take place at home. By staying indoors in case of illness and preferably keeping all doors and windows hermetically closed (after all, you don't want to get even sicker!), the chance that you will infect your housemates is greatest. Especially if someone comes to check on you every now and then. At some point, someone from the household will have to do some shopping. That is then the time for the unsuspecting - not yet really sick - infected roommate to sprinkle some virus in the supermarket under the false safety of a face mask. Or maybe there is an infected adolescent working there who would have been better off staying at home, you don't know. Cart can be cleaned, that doesn't do anything at all, we have known for almost a year. Someone else who picks up your virus (or that of the checkout) in the supermarket can transmit it to several housemates at home. Everyone is there, in the indoor air.
Staying healthy
If virologists don't get much further than these open doors in the top 3 of the corona fight, then we really have to help them. These are good general tips in themselves, and especially in an acute Sars-CoV-2 crisis, they have their usefulness during a lockdown... If we focus our full attention on this now, the third wave will certainly be fine.
- Healthy food. You know what that is and of course you have been doing it for a long time. After all, the average Dutch person collects corona kilos in this way on the way to dangerous obesity: You become an increasingly tasty snack for the virus.
- The last three points are dangerous for the virus, but don't worry: other rules offer sufficient resistance:
- Sufficient exercise – but you are not really allowed to go anywhere, sports or anything. And certainly not in the evening. Stairs on stairs down then?
- Sufficient sleep – Who is grinding with problems, business or domestic? No one, right? Tomorrow is another day!
- Sufficient relaxation and social contacts – you can't meet anywhere and are hardly allowed to see anyone. Compliance with this rule would therefore be a potential boost for the infection rates, but unfortunately – contrary to other, more specific rules.
If we want to live up to the wave prophecy of the medicinal high priests, following their rules set in stone can do no harm. The basic measures have been unchanged for a year, which shows how good they are.
We'll see if it works. Who knows, maybe the number of infections will rise a little again. Next week will be exciting. After all, it is flu season and we still do nothing at all about ventilation and various other forms of (preventive) self-protection, so an increase should actually be possible, even if the superspread events are exclusively reserved for nursing homes.
What we do in any case not We know that exactly, I've described that before. If we were to do that, the third wave would never happen and seasonal mortality would be halved...
