De rivm-modellen worden vooralsnog maar mondjesmaat gevolgd. Of, zoals het de laatste dagen in de kranten staat: "coronapiek blijft uit". Die piek zat er eigenlijk ook helemaal niet in; de doemverhalen waren simpelweg Driven by fear and riskavoidance. Then a discrepancy arises, especially if every miscalculation can be blamed on the behavior of the people.
Look, you could already see a few weeks ago that the terrifying 'doubling per week' (by OMT members on Radio1) was absolutely wrong, people refused to get sick at the time, very disobediently. That prediction has now been reduced to a doubling every two to three weeks. That is quite a perspective to grasp now that summer is only two months away.
The previously reported 170,000 infections per day, on the other hand, turned out to be based on a calculation error (not from the RIVM - from the Ministry of Health and Welfare; that is a very reassuring thought!). But it must be said: We certainly did not pull out all the stops to achieve that 170,000. You have to do that together. Indeed, we are not really cooperating.
According to the new curve, which is now different from what was explained in detail a few weeks ago, we will be over 12,000 infections per day in 4 weeks, at the end of March. What is expected of us to achieve that?
Are we going to achieve that at all? Let's take a look.
How we can work together on 12,000 infections
More and more studies show that measures make little or no sense, except for strict quarantine of the sick and breathing fresh air. So that is promising. The third wave is indeed feasible; We have to do our best for that.
Worldwide, the virus is on the decline and summer is also coming to us. That curve will not go up by itself. We need guidelines to follow together, otherwise that third wave will never happen because . Fortunately, these guidelines have been provided by the RIVM. We can confidently follow the most important basic rules from
het "Basic document on prevention behaviour and well-beingn" van de RIVM Corona Gedragsunit. Het resultaat van een jaar lang voortknallende wetenschap en harde praktijklessen: Lees maar mee.
It's as simple as that. This, in a nutshell, is the basis on which the virologists work. I will explain the concise enumeration point by point so that it becomes clear why these rules are important for creating the next wave together.
Washing hands
Corona is a respiratory virus so it is hardly passed on through indirect contact. Unfortunately, we have now unlearned to shake hands, which could contribute a little bit but not enough for the desired increase. However, washing hands can do little harm and does help against, for example, norovirus that gives you diarrhea, very annoying. So just do it.
One and a half meters away
That is an ideal rule for the virus because it spreads preferably indoors. Thanks to the 1.5 meter rule, people think that they can be in the same room for a long time, as long as they keep their distance. Working from home is a good example of this. The virus therefore has every opportunity to spread through one or more rooms and mix with the breath of everyone present - including perhaps some susceptible people. Provide air conditioning or air heating so that the air dries thoroughly. Mechanical ventilation helps the virus to reach other rooms.
Calling a GP
Always good. The assistant can probably help you further because the doctor is not allowed by the RIVM to prescribe any of the drugs that can cure your corona. So don't worry. The most important first-line virus treatment is: getting sick. Wait and see, painkiller here, fever inhibitor there. In case of severe long-term symptoms: go to the hospital.
Staying at home with symptoms
Most infections take place at home. By staying indoors in case of illness and preferably keeping all doors and windows hermetically closed (after all, you don't want to get even sicker!), the chance that you will infect your housemates is greatest. Especially if someone comes to check on you every now and then. At some point, someone from the household will have to do some shopping. That is then the time for the unsuspecting - not yet really sick - infected roommate to sprinkle some virus in the supermarket under the false safety of a face mask. Or maybe there is an infected adolescent working there who would have been better off staying at home, you don't know. Cart can be cleaned, that doesn't do anything at all, we have known for almost a year. Someone else who picks up your virus (or that of the checkout) in the supermarket can transmit it to several housemates at home. Everyone is there, in the indoor air.
Staying healthy
If virologists do not get much further than these open doors in the top 3 of corona control, then we really need to help them. These are good general tips in themselves, and especially in an acute Sars-CoV-2 crisis they are useful during a lockdown... If we now focus our full attention on this, the third wave will certainly be fine.
- Healthy food. You know what that is and of course you've been doing it for a long time. After all, the average Dutch person accumulates corona kilos in this way on the way to dangerous obesity: You become an increasingly tasty snack for the virus.
- The last three points are dangerous for the virus, but don't worry: other rules offer sufficient resistance:
- Sufficient exercise - but you're not actually allowed to go anywhere, exercise or anything. And certainly not in the evening. Then go down stairs after stairs?
- Sufficient sleep - who is worrying about problems, business or domestic? Nobody, right? Tomorrow is another day!
- Sufficient relaxation and social contacts - you cannot meet anywhere and are hardly allowed to see anyone. Following this rule would therefore be a potential boost for the infection rates, but unfortunately - conflicts with other, more specific rules.
If we want to live up to the wave prophecy of the medicinal high priests, following their rules set in stone can do no harm. The basic measures have been unchanged for a year, which shows how good they are.
We'll see if it works. Who knows, maybe the number of infections will rise a little again. Next week will be exciting. After all, it is flu season and we still do nothing at all about ventilation and various other forms of (preventive) self-protection, so an increase should actually be possible, even if the superspread events are exclusively reserved for nursing homes.
What we do in any case not have to do, we know that exactly, I have described that before. If we did that, the third wave would never happen and seasonal deaths would be halved...
