When we wrote about unexplained excess mortality in August 2021, it was a world first. In that article, we pointed out that corona was no longer the main cause of excess mortality. That was easy to see: we subtracted the covid mortality from the total mortality and then there was still considerably more mortality than expected. In the summer.
- Mortality minus expected mortality = excess mortality
- Excess mortality minus Covid mortality = unexplained excess mortality
As a result, there were differences between CBS and RIVM, because if you looked at the CBS figures, covid mortality was sometimes two or three times as high as total excess mortality. Of course, that wasn't possible. There are several reasons to prefer the RIVM figures. We (Herman Steigstra and I) explain that in an article on Researchgate, but that is not the most important part of that article. What really matters is that the deductions just described do not take into account expected under-mortality. How this can be calculated is also stated in that article.
Based on a reliable mortality forecast, an excess mortality period is always followed by under-mortality.
Simpel gezegd: Je verwacht minder sterfte dan je eerst verwachtte, omdat je net oversterfte hebt gezien. De verwachte sterfte (de baseline) zou dus tijdelijk omlaag moeten na een periode van oversterfte. Alle sterfte die boven die nieuwe 'sub'baseline ligt, wordt dan oversterfte. Dat betekent voor de voorbije jaren dat er flink wat oversterfte bij komt.
How much and for how long depends very much on the age composition of those who have died extra. The older they are, the sooner the under-mortality will be over. Based on experiences with flu epidemics, Herman made a plausible calculation to determine what undermortality you can expect after excess mortality.
Nut: Dit is niet omdat we alles bij elkaar willen harken wat tot meer oversterfte leidt maar omdat we nog nooit eerder zo'n lange periode van aanhoudende oversterfte hebben gezien. Dat werpt nieuwe vragen op. En het wordt nog ernstiger dan dit.
In de grafiek wordt de reguliere verwachting aangegeven door de rechte 100%-lijn (lichtblauwe vlak ter verduidelijking). De onderste zwarte lijn geeft de aangepaste verwachting, de 'sub'baseline. Na elke coronagolf zakt die een stukje omlaag om daarna weer langzaam te normaliseren naar 100%. Het gearceerde gedeelte is de totale onverklaarde sterfte, na aftrek van Covid.
The shaded area in the blue area is what has been added due to the missing under-mortality. If you look closely at the line, you will see that the unexplained excess mortality has less effect on the under-mortality line than the corona peaks. This is because there were relatively fewer deaths among the elderly. As a result, future excess mortality will be spread over a much longer period of time, and then there will be no clear dents in the undermortality expectation.
Years of life lost due to excess mortality
De ondersterfte-berekening is gebaseerd op wat we doorgaans na griepepidemieën zien. Griep, "old man's friend" of "het laatste zetje" veroorzaakt vooral sterfte onder mensen die toch al niet zo heel lang meer hadden. Dat levert een beperkt aantal verloren levensjaren op.
Noot: We spraken in het RG-artikel over QALY's: Quality Adjusted Life Years, een bekende en veel gebruikte afkorting. Eigenlijk is LYL (Life Years Lost) in dit geval een betere term, omdat QALY-berekeningen ook het kwaliteitsaspect meenemen van de resterende levensjaren, bijvoorbeeld bij blijvende invalidering of arbeidsongeschiktheid. Wij kijken echter alleen naar (over)sterfte. In het RG-artikel mag je dus LYL lezen waar QALY staat. Als er nog een revisie komt, nemen we dit mee.
The covid mortality was no different from flu mortality: just as age-discriminatory. Healthy young people were spared, the very elderly and vulnerable were disproportionately affected.
When covid disappeared and excess mortality continued, this profile changed. This graph clearly shows how the mortality rates were among various age groups in the excess mortality years 2020-2023.
There are two ways to look at it:
- Someone aged 80 had a 50% chance of dying in 2020 (red line). In the following years: approx. 70%.
- The colored lines are 5 years more to the left than the red ones. After corona, people died 5 years earlier than average.
The younger a person dies, the higher the number of years of life lost.
If you calculate the two graphs above, you will come up with:
- Meer onverklaarde overledenen dan we tot nog toe dachten (correctie op 'vergeten' ondersterfte)
- More years of life lost (LYL) post-covid than during covid (deaths younger on average)
A rough estimate for the number of years of life lost due to corona, taking into account the displacement of mortality, is 23,000.
For the years from 2021 onwards, it is about 240,000.
More than 10 times as many as in the years after 2021. 3x as many years of life lost per year.
These are all roundings to emphasize the order of magnitude. In the article on Researchgate it's all more precise.
Where to, what for?
Hopefully, everyone is wondering how this tragedy was caused. Is there anything that can be done about it at all? Can it be prevented, next time? Then you should know something about the cause. Because this article is hopefully also easy to follow for those who have not yet delved into the matter, we will answer the most obvious questions.
"Could it be an aging population, the baby boom?" In de verwachting zijn demografische ontwikkelingen meegenomen. Dat kan dus eigenlijk niet de oorzaak zijn.
"Could it be due to delayed care?" We weten dat urgente zorg niet is uitgesteld. In een ZonMw-onderzoek is berekend dat een verlaging van dotterdiagnoses en/of -behandelingen geleid kan hebben tot 2.153 extra overlijdens (bedenk dat er jaarlijks 40.000 overlijdens zijn aan hart- en vaatziekten). Dotterbehandelingen worden soms acuut na diagnose uitgevoerd en in die zin is het urgente zorg, met een behandeling die onmiddellijk resultaat heeft.
In the meantime, the postponed care has long since been overtaken. People who have felt pain in their left arm since 2020 have had every opportunity to seek treatment. It is good that this has been mapped out, but it does not give reason to see deferred care as the cause of a structural mortality increase of 10%.
"Could it be related to vaccination?" Dat kan natuurlijk, waarom niet. De introductie van de covidvaccins en de afzonderlijke campagnes zijn qua tijdstippen goed te koppelen aan oversterftecijfers en -pieken, zowel op korte als op lange termijn. Steeds meer studies signaleren zeer ernstige bijwerkingen. Die gaan over het effect van de mRNA Covidspike injecties op allerlei cellen en systemen, waaronder ook levensbedreigende:
- bloedproblemen (trombose, stolling, aneurysma's, hart- en herseninfarcten, hersenbloedingen)
- respiratory system (lung problems, respiratory diseases)
- weakened immune systems (cancer, inflammation in multiple organs)
mRNA is everywhere, including in the most protected parts of our body such as the brain and reproductive organs.
"Is the excess mortality really that serious?" Kijk zelf naar de sterftecijfers van het CBS. Per seizoen weergegeven van zomer tot zomer.
Research into the link between vaccination and excess mortality
Initially, I had high expectations of the Parliamentary Inquiry. That enthusiasm has plummeted. Not only because the report will only be published in 3 years' time, when everyone has already gone back to business as usual. They also stop at 2022. As if we are back in normal waters in 2023 and 2024. Seen in this light, it is a formality that is being fulfilled.
It has also become clear to me that the parliamentary inquiry will focus on protocols. Have we followed all the rules correctly? Here are the main points:
- Goals, strategy and crisis organisation;
- Overwegingen, dilemma's en proportionaliteit;
- Role of advisors and dealing with social groups and criticism;
- Communication of the government and crisis organisation;
- Role of the House of Representatives;
- Learning capacity and lessons for the future.
In eerste instantie dacht ik: "proportionaliteit", dat is een mooie insteek. Maar dan zullen de experts getuigen dat de politici met 5% van de kennis toch 100% van de besluiten moesten nemen. Rookgordijnen te over. Verder is proportionaliteit (en subsidiariteit) al heel vroeg in de coronaperiode door de rechter beoordeeld. Dat zat allemaal snor "want het OMT..."
Willem Engel and Jeroen Pols didn't stand a chance with their elaborate accusations. So there is case law on it, the judge has ruled. Check.
Dan punt 3: de "rol van adviseurs" misschien? Die was natuurlijk uitmuntend. Die hebben keurig geadviseerd naar eer en geweten. Er was zelfs heel slagvaardig meteen een OMT in stelling gebracht! En die hebben vaak plichtsgetrouw de koppen bij elkaar gestoken om het land te beschermen. Check.
"Omgang met kritiek"? Het waterkanon waarmee de schedel van die vrouw tegen het beton werd geschoten op het 18 Septemberplein in Eindhoven, dat was niet zo handig maar daar staat tegenover dat Maurice de Hond wel eens in een adviespanel is uitgenodigd. Toegegeven, dat had misschien beter gekund. Plusminnetje, verbeterpuntje.
Over de rol van de Tweede Kamer - ik verwacht niet dat die zichzelf naar huis stuurt. Ze hebben alles gedaan wat in hun vermogen lag, Attje Kuiken wilde zelfs saboterende artsen naar huis sturen, hoe krachtig wil je het hebben. En bovendien: zo werkt de democratie nu eenmaal. Check.
In short, not much can come out of it. I wonder whether Pepijn van Houwelingen, whom I consider to be the most knowledgeable in the field, will have a decisive voice, and to what extent Rosanne Hertzberger will be able to denounce the failing academia is another question. To the extent that that is in the scope of the committee at all.
Des te meer zie ik uit naar het Rapport van Ronald Meester en Marc Jacobs. Die zitten in de afrondende fase van hun onderzoek, dat eind augustus zal worden gepresenteerd. Het wordt voor de virusvaria-redactie, de Maurice-auteurs en vele andere zolderkamer-analisten een spannend moment: hebben we er helemaal naast gezeten of...?
De grote disclaimer is natuurlijk: het blijft uiteindelijk statistiek. Aan de andere kant: buitenlandse alarmerende medische studies stapelen zich op maar zoals Jaap van Dissel als eens treffend opmerkte "dat is geen Nederland". Obducties hebben nooit plaatsgevonden in Nederland dus als zulk hard bewijs wordt geëist, dan wordt dat een teleurstelling.
The biggest disappointment will be that the parliamentary inquiry does not put the functioning of the EMA, Health Council, Health and Youth Inspectorate (IGJ), National Health Care Institute (ZIN), medical scientists and doctors' associations such as Medisch Contact, academia, etc. on the filleting board. This means that the pharma lobby will be able to put half the world in a bind the next time there is yet another lab accident during research that is carried out for the same pharma.
Covid is not over, I have not been vaccinated for 76 years, now have it for the third time. The virus mutates and then it keeps coming back.
By Covid I mean the original dreaded disease that caused a cytokine storm, from which a good percentage of those infected died and where, in desperation, a kind of experimental chemotherapy or gene therapy was deployed in the entire world population.
Annoying for you! Are you very sick of it? I've had it twice. The last time was in 2021, I think: shivering for a day or two.
Are you trying to do something about it?
Wasn't it precisely the (flawed) treatment that caused those Cytekine storms?
Mvg, Arnoud
Here's another unvaccinated person. I am 70 years old and have also had it for the third time (apart from maybe even more often) an infection where I did not get sick, but did get shortness of breath that disappears after sometimes months and comes back every time. May 28 again sick for 12 days (same as flu) 1 time I woke up in the morning after a Covid infection with enormous stabbing pain and it would be Ichias. I believe that too, but I suspect the result of that contamination. Couldn't sit on a chair for 2 months and saw someone at post Covid.nl, (vaccinated by the way, although he doesn't think it can come from that, he thinks of the disease itself) who had the same, only many times worse, because with him it had not improved after 2 years and the man could only lie down instead of sitting. For me, it has healed, although I still feel that spot in the back from time to time. Now I have huge joint complaints again after the infection right in the weak spots. Never bothered by my hands that barely have any cartilage left in them and after the infection regularly pain out of nowhere. Especially in bed Also in the shoulders. It is hard for me to know that this will continue year after year. Always slept well and now not anymore and see that with the last infection at Post Covid.nl more people have suffered from sleeping problems. It is now clear to me that you cannot build up immunity. Presumably, those scientists who said that the virus always escapes immunity are right. I'm starting to see the black.
Good luck, Do. Not nice to hear and I understand very well that you want to share your story. Make sure you have enough sun, fresh air, exercise, mingling with people, eating well... I don't know either: supplements, ivermectin? I'm sure you've thought of that too. I wish you a speedy recovery!
That is Transverse Myelitis and is an inflammation that comes from your tailbone and lower vertebrae, so you cannot sit or lie on it for weeks or months. Taking anti-inflammatory drugs and painkillers. Physiotherapy in particular helped me well.
A known vaccine side effect.
I've had it too.
Get well soon!
Thank you for your compassion. Anna, I have not been vaccinated and I certainly believe it could be a side effect of the vaccine, but apparently the virus also does something. Things are going a lot better now and it was very difficult when I typed it. Everything is getting better, but it will most likely not be 100 percent anymore. Occasionally strange complaints that disappear after a while. Such as a tooth that hurts and no inflammation is visible after taking a photo. Hot and cold hurt, but chewing them didn't hurt at all. It seems to be getting less and less now. I suspect that the virus does something to the nerves. I also think that my shortness of breath is partly due to the virus and pollen together. I was already short of breath and noticed that when the pollen season started the shortness of breath got worse. Last year I didn't really notice that. I suddenly hear a lot of people who suddenly start to suffer from pollen. I suspect that the virus and that sudden outbreak of people with pollen allergies have something to do with each other. I am not a scientist, but I still strongly lean towards a connection between the two and it could be that the vaccine could make the complaints even worse.
Dear Eggink, you may find this useful:https://1drv.ms/w/c/13426ae541632a0a/EVroGjhK0TxJizchQeEuMQcBTrsPSDwcciBoZoyJM9TmqA
For example, I use it when my grandchildren have stayed with us.
Thank you Anton,
For much longer than Covid I have been using supplements such as quercetin, D3 zinc, and natto kinase. I live a very healthy life. Don't smoke or drink and also look very healthy. That makes it even more difficult. However, I'd love to try ivermectin, I don't know how to get it. Also don't know the dose in my case.
Perhaps most poignantly: people have been pricked ("for the greater good"), still pricked, died and their death is then also concealed.
Cowardly, vile, disrespectful behaviour from agencies and government that this is downplayed and barely investigated and from most media that they are as quiet as they were in the first Covid year noisily.
We are in complete agreement, also about the disastrous role of our low-quality media. The columnists of the Telegraaf, they made themselves heard from time to time. Furthermore: inferior intellect or corrupt gajes.
Or hares, overcome by fear......
Their responses are about the fact that social measures, face masks, vaccinations, censorship, prohibited medication were proven to be harmful. Keulemans mentions a few things under the motto 'I was also critical'. His grandfather must have been in the resistance. But that's not the point. They didn't know exactly how harmful some things were. That was no reason to be cautious either. ("We're going to throw a bomb." – "Oh? What kind of damage is it going to cause"? – "I don't know, but maybe we'll win the war. It might just help.")
They also quickly knew how serious Covid really was (severe flu) and for whom. Despite this, they continued to disrupt society. What matters is that they knew everything and did it anyway. They knew that the potential damage posed a high risk or was a certainty. They knew there was no certainty that anything would work. They knew - I am convinced - that they did not prevent aerosols in this way, at most as a side effect of group bans. There simply wasn't a shred of substantiation. That's the point, not that WE already knew, no, THEY knew!
Excellent article, also about the eroded parliamentary inquiry. I also look forward to the findings of Meester et al. and foreign researchers, while more whistleblowers are always welcome. Because in government circles there are fears about liability and personal career, while omerta is inherent in the medical sector, because of the same fears.
Personally, I have the idea that these vaccines make things worse and, in the best case, do nothing at all. It's a shame that people don't want to do proper research on the disease itself and the vaccines. Very special and you would think there is something that cannot stand the light of day.
Hi Anton,
a small correction for your text: where you are talking about the woman whose skull was shot against the concrete with a water cannon, was not on the Museumplein (A-Dam), but on the 18 Septemberplein in Eindhoven.
Otherwise, another excellent analysis!
I am also looking forward to the report by Ronald Meester and Marc Jacobs.
Corrected, great, thanks! Misremembered.
It's great that you're all figuring this out.
I think the number of deaths FROM Covid is even lower. The way in which the protocols were adapted to the unreliable PCR tests led to large numbers of erroneous treatments. See also interview of Willem Lijfering with Wybren van Haga (youtube).
Above all, I see a huge system failure as the underlying cause. So apart from all the madness. Face masks were pointless, pure scaremongering. The unreliable PCR test that was used as a diagnosis. Keep your distance, close borders. All based on models (which never came out). And in all "highly developed" countries the same patterns. Hastily developed(?) Roll out 'vaccines' en masse. The WHO finally got the pandemic they've been waiting for for so long. These kinds of institutions become too big and end up looking for reasons to ensure their right to exist.
The same goes for the approval bodies such as EMA, FDA etc. We all know here that they are to a large extent sponsored by the pharmaceutical industry. A very sick system that should really be tackled by politicians. Neo-liberalism gone too far? There are no more control mechanisms. This 'pandemic' was a logical consequence of the developments of decades. Easy to say that retroactively, of course. Who can still regulate these bodies? National governments can hardly be called democratic anymore. But that's a story in itself.
That's why it's so incredibly frustrating that so few people see what (among other things) you're reporting here. I think it's the canary in the coal mine. Because of this self-inflicted 'pandemic', (some) people have come to see what is wrong in our current structures.
This weekend another death. 62 year old healthy man. ex-colleague. Sudden heart failure. Used to happen too. Certainly, but now very often. I keep my mouth shut, it's not appropriate to start shouting what you actually think at such a moment.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, its probably a duck.
I also had another unexpected death, in an app group of former fraternity mates, mostly medics. "Far too young" is what they say. I don't say anything because I only get scorn about me, totally pointless in such company.
Last week my 44-year-old cousin passed away suddenly. Has not been discovered in the house for 4 days. Lived in assisted living (autism) and didn't live too healthy (no alcohol/drugs). I can't talk to anyone about it (I don't either) because the jabs are sacred.
Peter Gilles' son, Mark, recently came to the ICU with pneumonia, latest reports that attempts with yet other antibiotics seem to be working. Happy and I wish him a speedy recovery and strength for him and his family. The young man is obese and all that together would have been deadly, especially with the protocols during corona. No antibiotics and on a ventilator on his abdomen. Obese people on their stomachs can be fatal anyway and more than 80% of covid patients, Gommers said, during the first wave were obese patients with multiple conditions. My contacts with two ICU doctors had already told me that... It is incomprehensible that all those family members always emphasize "the good care(s)" while the first 5 most common causes of death are due to medical care anyway. And then all those "unexplained" deaths. And another terrified cyclist without fitness who is afraid of "infecting" others who dismounts in the tour. They are still crazy.
Excellent but also sad article, for example about the hollowed-out parliamentary inquiry. While hope remains for the independent research results of Meesters/Jacobs at the end of August; will Tijs van den Brink dare to dwell on that in a significant way? Anyway, luckily Maurice is there too.
Covid with or without vaccination... It remains a vague stream of symptoms and can therefore hardly be referred to as a new disease. I continue to suspect that something else is going on here and refer to the book by Arthur Firstenberg (invisible rainbow). As a population, we are creating a new balance, where some adapt easily and others don't. The new forms of radiation (many installed on homes for the elderly) will be added at the beginning of August when the new transmission frequencies (now really like microwaves) will be switched on. What kind of wave is going to come from that?
Beautiful work by Anton Theunissen on Excess Mortality. But what should I do with it?
In August 2022, my wife was admitted to the hospital with vascular problems after being vaccinated against corona in 2021. She died on August 27, 2022 from vascular infections throughout the body, even in the brain. Before the vaccination, my wife was a very healthy woman, did a lot of sports, cycled and walked a lot. Didn't smoke, didn't drink, didn't take medication and rarely went to see a doctor.
Until she was vaccinated, she suffered from everything. In the hospital they do not dare and do not want to give a definite answer as to what caused her death, but it was said that this phenomenon of so many vascular infections was also a new phenomenon for them. They operated on my wife twice more to repair the blood vessel damage, but without a good outcome. So excess mortality is plentiful, but it is criminally denied by all kinds of agencies and covered up with lies. I have been in court against the hospital and the Dutch state for more than two years to get the truth out, but you are opposed everywhere, even by agencies such as GGD, RIVM, LAREB and the hospital, not to mention the government itself. But I won't give up, the bottom stone will come out. And the guilty will be punished. So how that excess mortality should be described in the archives will be a sausage to me, THERE IS EXCESS MORTALITY and it is caused by the so-called vaccine which is not a vaccine. In my family, 3 people have died from cardiovascular problems after being vaccinated. And one has been in the hospital for a long time with a pericardium infection. I myself have not been vaccinated and never will.
Terrible. My condolences and I wish you a lot of strength in your fight for recognition.
Condolences for the loss of your wife. How the powers that be have damaged society enormously. Strength.
On behalf of Dorothee (because you may not have received the notification):
Condolences for the loss of your wife. How the powers that be have damaged society enormously. Strength.
An acquaintance of mine lost her daughter-in-law (59 years old) in September last year. Cancer throughout the body and there was something like 2 months between the discovery and death. Liters of fluid had to be sucked out. Her abdomen was abnormally large with fluid. She asked for and received euthanasia. Another friend of mine lost her sister-in-law and a friend of hers. Also cancer in a few months. This friend doesn't link it to the vaccine and neither does the knowledge. I myself have stopped pointing this out to them. Another one here in the building already had a few stents and the last one was 11 years ago and in those eleven years everything was fine. After the vaccination I fell twice and at the beginning of January a blood clot in the vein, where no stent could be placed. Then two women, 1 of whom I know, because she sometimes came to drink a cup of dementia in a very short time. I think the vaccinations and maybe the disease, but I don't know. Needs to be investigated. I don't know the other one and maybe he was already demented. I don't know. Last week I was with this friend who lost two people and she got a call from someone who teaches sports with her. If she wanted to take over, because his brother-in-law had died suddenly. Then a woman, who had suffered an eye attack. Then a woman who got a blood clot in the brain and fell unconscious. She was lucky that the clot dissolved on its own, otherwise she would have had to rehabilitate. Her husband a week later also thunders to the ground and had something wrong with his hip and had to be in the wheelchair for 6 weeks. All vaccinated people. My brother fell a day after the vaccination and then had to go to a nursing home and was bedridden for months. Is now in a closed ward. I don't dare to say whether his dementia has anything to do with the vaccine, but I strongly suspect that he does. A woman here in the flat fell dead from the bike. Just like that, without it being an accident with another vehicle. They don't know why and assume a heart attack. Also vaccinated. A hiker (vaccinated three times) that I know has about the same as what I have, but she feels a bit better after 2 years, but climbing and yoga are no longer possible. And she can't drive a taxi anymore. Yoga also hurts me. Rather not at all. Before corona manifested itself, I saw occasional illness and death and since the rollout of the vaccine on an assembly line. It's to cry that you can't say it, because then it's: yes, people are getting older, aren't they!! In 3 years' time. Suddenly. In 2020, I heard 1 time that someone had died of corona. Hearsay, in other words. Not in the area.
Considering that:
1. The number of deaths in the Netherlands in 2023 and 2024 will be at the same level as in 2020, 2021 and 2022 and the word "excess mortality" in 2023 appears to be out of favor with the MSM, RIVM and CBS.
2. At the request of the House of Representatives, a number of scientific studies have been started into the causes of excess mortality. In 2023, hardly anything has been heard about these studies and the results of the studies into excess mortality have not been forthcoming.
3. The expected scientific studies into the effectiveness of the various Covid-19 vaccines are not forthcoming.
4. Parliamentary investigation into the Covid-19 pandemic by the government and the House of Representatives is frustrated. In any case, the investigation does not get off the ground.
5. The well-known critical science journalists of the renowned newspapers in 2023 remain silent on these topics.
6. Billions of euros have disappeared for which the minister in charge refuses to account.
7. The misinformation and forgery surrounding corona produced by CBS and RIVM.
8. Soon after the emergence of the coronavirus, many pharmaceutical companies managed to develop a vaccine that, according to the makers, would combat the coronavirus. The vaccines were sold/purchased for around $20 per dose. If you see the short time in which these companies managed to develop a "working" vaccine and produce large quantities of vaccines, you can conclude that it is a fairly easy to develop product that could be produced on a large scale without significant investments. Then a sales price of around $20 per dose is downright ridiculously high. In this context, the gigantic profits made by some of these pharmaceutical companies in recent years are no surprise.
Is het zeer aannemelijk dat we met de hele Covid-19 pandemie zwaar belazerd zijn.