Het Actuarieel Genootschap maakt tweejaarlijks een prognose waarop o.m. verzekeringspremies en pensioenen worden gebaseerd. Eerder signaleerden we al dat het AG de sterfteprognose (de zgn. "prognosetafel") AG2022 stevig heeft moeten ophogen in AG2024. Ze dachten in 2022 namelijk dat de oversterfte jaarlijks zou halveren. Op basis waarvan was niet duidelijk, ze noemen dat "de introductie van oversterftetermen". Dat pasten ze dus twee jaar later aan, in AG2024, toen bleek dat de oversterfte zich in 2023 bepaald niet had gehouden aan de beoogde daling van 50% per jaar. Maar nu?
The new assumption - even without new substantiation - was that excess mortality would now decrease by 25% every year. So their baseline was significantly raised towards the pandemic level (from the blue dotted line to the purple).
The AG also maintained a temporary increase in AG2024. Their justification for the annual decrease of 25% was as follows:
"Ook voor andere pandemieën zoals de Spaanse griep is op lange termijn geen blijvende impact op sterfte waargenomen."1The Spanish Flu is not comparable for several reasons, but that is beyond the scope of this article.
Ze vermoeden dus dat het wel weer ooit op het normale niveau zal komen, maar ja... Wanneer? Eigenlijk klinkt het alsof er maar een slag naar wordt geslagen. Nattevingerwerk - niks voor actuarissen, zou je zeggen!
If they then signal that this excess mortality continues, that it does not behave like the reference they had come up with in terms of post-pandemic excess mortality (perhaps a suggestion from Maarten Keulemans?2Zoek op X bij Keulemans naar "Spaanse Griep": https://x.com/search?q=from%3Amkeulemans%20%22spaanse%20griep%22&src=typed_query&f=live), dan zouden ze zich toch eens achter de oren moeten gaan krabben... Was het wel de pandemie? Waren er geen andere dingen die een rol zouden kunnen spelen?
Nee hoor, zo denken actuarissen niet. Althans - niet in de externe communicatie; daarvoor zitten ze te dicht op instituten en overheden. Hoe het binnenshuis gaat weten we natuurlijk niet. Ongetwijfeld zal ook daar gediscussieerd worden, net als in het OMT, in de zorg, in artsenverenigingen en bij het IGJ - nou daar dan misschien weer niet.
From 50% to 25% annual decline, these are nice round numbers. In any case, that 25% decrease does not appear to be sufficient, so what nice round number will AG2026 be? 15%? 10% decrease per year? And doesn't that gradually require some sort of explanation?
Let's see what other actuaries say about it.
Excess mortality in 2025: from 25% expected decrease to 42% increase
Sprenkels, a reliable and professional actuarial consultancy firm, maintains a mortality monitor. There is a status update every quarter. In their message from last month (Feb 2026) we read:
In het jaar 2025 zijn er circa 3,4% meer mensen (5.730) overleden dan op basis van de Prognosetafel AG2024 werd verwacht. De sterfte lag bij bijna alle groepen hoger dan verwacht. [...] Viewed in the year 2024, more people have also died than expected. In 2024, excess mortality was lower (2.4%) than in 2025 (3.4%). This has resulted in a further increase in excess mortality.3Source: Sprenkels mortality monitor February 2026
That's plain language. According to these actuaries, excess mortality has not decreased by 25% in 2025 compared to 2024 (from 2.4% to 1.8%), but has actually increased, from 2.4% to 3.4%. That is 1 percentage point, or - to use their own terms - a relative increase of 42% instead of a 25% decrease, at least compared to their own forecast. Their excess mortality is different from ours, so you get strange percentages.
Maar dat van die 'tijdelijke aard", hoe gaan ze dat in 2026 verkopen? Of als ze van die aanname terugkomen - waarom dan? Dan zullen ze toch wel iets van een onderbouwing moeten verzinnen. Is het wachten op de "introductie van een continuïteitsterm" die alles naar tevredenheid wegboekt of volstaat het om aan te geven dat de oversterfteterm nog enige bijstelling behoeft - en verder is er niks aan de hand?
The AG's RIVM-like approach boils down to adjusting expectations to the observed mortality level. A long-term health crisis is thus included in the expectations. That is also the goal for the AG: to predict.
Maar het RIVM, dat zich ook baseert op sterfteniveaus van voorbije jaren, verliest op deze manier de signaalfunctie van de 'baseline'. Niemand wil aan de Normsterfte4See our report Van verwachtingen naar normsterfte - de beste baseline die we op dit moment hebben omdat die de langdurige verhoging signaleert en niet voorspelt als 'te verwachten'.
Footnotes
- 1The Spanish Flu is not comparable for several reasons, but that is beyond the scope of this article.
- 2Zoek op X bij Keulemans naar "Spaanse Griep": https://x.com/search?q=from%3Amkeulemans%20%22spaanse%20griep%22&src=typed_query&f=live
- 3
- 4See our report Van verwachtingen naar normsterfte
DISGUSTING!
You would think that AI, with its danger of virtual reality, does not represent reality, false reality is not yet among us, only threatens as a future danger.
I fear that the above shows that we are already in the middle of it. That our politics is completely immersed in it.
Now take those plans, I believe in 2030, to increase the state pension age in line with increased life expectancy. A completely absurd discussion given the above. He should come down sooner, but this is not possible (I understood from Jan).
We are engaged in a discussion that is completely disconnected from the reality at hand.
Or could it be a strategy to divert our gaze as far as possible from the extra mortality that is taking place before our eyes so that the question of the cause remains out of the picture.
A devious way to appropriate all unspent AOW money?
Baudrillard already described such a reality.
See:
https://open.substack.com/pub/michelportier/p/2026-kantelt-al-aardig-met-ai-als?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1lysl7
This false reality has been there for a long time, through the media. In that respect, Ai is a new branch on the same tree. I have the translation of Shumer's piece here: https://virusvaria.nl/?p=34126&preview=1&_ppp=5de6535a3a
Interesting reactions to, among others, Shumer by John Rappoport.
Journalists as human AI 🙂
https://open.substack.com/pub/jonrappoport/p/ai-something-big-is-happening-how-big?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1lysl7
Get the public part via substack. (I'm not subscribed).
Me neither. A lot of people hitchhike on that part of Shumer. Lots of AI too. It is even claimed that Shumer does not exist at all.
People consider that very important. But it is not a game, it is not chess, where that distinction is crucial.
Would Anne Laning have a good explanation for this?
Surely so. Consisting of official reports and peer-reviewed studies that claim the opposite.
Does anyone know if this trend is present all over the world?
Surely there must be more life insurance companies that calculate and know these figures?
It's a bit like being in the ICU with Mr. Gommers. There are whistleblowers and investigations are being conducted. However, the research yields nothing, but anyone with a bit of common sense knows that it stinks like a (deaf)/cesspool.
Ed Dowd is an insurance specialist who has been sounding the alarm for a long time.
Indeed, Ed Dowd sounded the alarm very early. I remember this:
https://www.vigilantfox.com/p/smoking-gun-new-actuarial-report
And later his book: “Cause Unknown”: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022
You can read minds. I couldn't find the link anymore. If you search for his name on Rumble now, it is full of economic drama... I think a lot of reposts from Bitcoin promoters (same lettering, etc.)
Something like that! I think I saw that link here at the time, or another one that referred to that alarming table from American actuaries.
The recommended age for the syringe goes from 60+ to 70+. That's already a step in the right direction :(
And young(er) healthcare staff AND people under the age of 70 with conditions and their loved ones 😞 This morning conversation in the dog park: “Long time no see”. “I had the flu for almost 5 months straight, was in hospital with pneumonia and now still suffer from shingles, but it could have been worse without all the vaccinations.” Some unexpected (excess) mortality in the family, the man told us without emotion...
Nice piece by Bystrianyk on Substack:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-190297896
Titel: The Great Dumbing Down.
The number of sensible people is decreasing, partly because they reproduce less. The film is a B film but the concept is very funny of course. Actually quite disturbing and I think this column is worth reading. It doesn't make you any happier, but I'm trying to get over that.
Quote:
The core issue isn’t a lack of intelligence, but a lack of foundational knowledge. For decades, we’ve been told that in the information age, facts are at our fingertips, so memorization is obsolete. But cognitive science tells a different story. You cannot think critically about something you don’t know. You cannot connect ideas in a “knowledge web” when the web has no anchor points.
end quote
Relationship with your reaction? So the people you heard talking don't see any connections. It's also because we're in the middle of it. Most people 'think' that it is normal to get sick. Shouldn't health be the basis and diseases the exception? Or have 'we' always been this unhealthy?
Cees, There is something in it here and there because I also see some stupid screen addiction. A good example is good to follow, but with all the jobs via laptops, etc. in our family, that is difficult, so we talk a lot about what children, including teenagers, do on those screens. In addition, training is almost entirely based on disinformation from the government, so scanning quickly and achieving a passing grade has become the goal. Long before the corona period, a child of ours could start and win a case against a professor and the university, but that has now become impossible. Genuine interest and sincere attention, also for endless computer worlds. For me, a grandchild “manages” a team in a game so that we always have something to talk about and then we usually talk about what is bothering them (such as the propaganda at school from climate hysteria to willingness to die...). I don't have a monopoly on wisdom and it is certainly true that many cannot make connections and not everyone can reason logically, the level does not matter. The unwillingness to listen, herd behavior, disease gain, gossip in the media, etc. has always been there, but the fact that it has come to stand in the way of our freedom in all respects is shocking to experience and I do not want such a world for the generations after me! Prevention in the form of a healthy lifestyle instead of care WAS my life's work (mini steps have been taken, still are). Unfortunately, scientific research has become unreliable or even worse, the AG raises some lines here and there, as we can read above... what kind of (money) tongs are they in there?
Yes, the ignoramuses in The Hague don't want to know anything about the superior due to corona vaccination. They push every study into the negative consequences of the corona vaccination under the carpet or dismiss it as crazy talk, even silencing esteemed lawyers and scientists who want to demonstrate that the corona vaccine had side effects with fatal consequences. The government and agencies such as RIVM, GGD, and Lareb are pulling out all the stops to conceal the truth about the deadly vaccine. I speak from experience, I have been fighting a legal battle against the above authorities for 4 years in connection with the death of my wife, who died in the hospital in the ICU approximately 8 months after she was vaccinated, on May 27, 2022. My wife died of blood vessel infections throughout her body, the doctors who treated her could not or did not dare to tell me how she had contracted these total and fatal infections. The fact that they supposedly did not know arose from the fear of negative consequences for their skin, such as being fired and losing their BIG registration, with all the negative consequences if they had told the truth. A major criminal cesspool that will still be kept closed with all their might by the above authorities. But one day the perpetrators of this planned genocide will be tracked down and punished, no punishment for this is too high. If these people are tracked down and have to answer for themselves in court, I hope that an exception will be made for them as far as the punishment is concerned, I hope that they will all receive the DEATH PENALTY because they deserve no less!
Frans, my condolences on the loss of your wife. I understand your emotion and your desire to punish those responsible with a punishment that we do not know here and that I do not consider desirable. Your realization that it was caused by the corona shots is striking, as are your emotions. My experience is that most people with an unexpected and/or striking death in their environment tell their story without many emotions. There also seems to be a normalization of having or dying from very serious diseases in the mainstream media. People with jobs in healthcare, insurance, RIVM, etc, etc, seem jaded. Where are the whistleblowers?
Dear C.
I can understand that you react this way, from your story I can conclude that you yourself have not experienced any negative consequences from the murder weapon corona vaccine. My reasons for judging so harshly about the criminals who have deliberately caused death and destruction worldwide is that I have personally experienced what it feels like when, through agencies that have to ensure the safety of medicines and that you can rely on the medical world, your wife becomes a victim of criminals, resulting in death.
My wife and I took very good care of our bodies. I myself have not been vaccinated and never will be. My wife had to be vaccinated due to pressure from outside and the government, because of her profession.
If doctors do not dare to mention how blood vessel infections throughout the body can suddenly develop, it rings a bell. The vaccine, which contains spike proteins, attacks your blood vessels, causing irreversible blood vessel infections that can no longer be repaired by the body or medical interventions, resulting in death caused by the vaccine. I hope that the people who have caused this misery worldwide will be punished, and if there is no death penalty in the Netherlands yet, then I hope that the judges will make an exception for such criminals. And still sentence this scum to the death penalty. For they have taken many lives for profit.
Frans, what I mean is that far too few people react this way to a huge loss. Indeed incomprehensible! Good luck with your legal battle! Do you do that alone? There are lawsuits from fellow sufferers, but in my opinion far too few! You may want to inquire with the “The long shot” foundation. Stronger together! Wybren van Haga is also still working on it. It is also striking that people who have not been injected are also concerned about those who have been injected. What do you say to all those people who tell their misery, with but increasingly without emotions, and you are almost certain that it comes from the corona shots, but you are not allowed to say that research is at least desirable?
Terrible French, my condolences. It is tragedies like these that are behind those statistics that we have been drawing attention to for years.
Long covid, are there also non-vaccinated people who have this or should that distinction not be investigated?
A post-covid report was published last year. People could register spontaneously. 93% had been vaccinated. I have written two articles about it.
https://virusvaria.nl/over-welke-ziekte-gaat-het-post-covid-rapport/
https://virusvaria.nl/de-overgang-prik-en-virus-het-post-covid-rapport/
Post Covid, Long Covid, these are very varied complaints, as Anton already indicates. I've been reading the pieces of 'Lies are Unbecoming' lately, I think it's an Australian source. I don't agree with everything, but one of the problems with our medicine is that we try to label every disease. When I see the list of complaints in Anton's earlier piece, and when you also read that the diagnosis is made via answer forms, it becomes generic. From fatigue to concentration problems to menstrual pain and just about everything in between.
Anyone who contracts an infectious disease may experience symptoms in the long term. I don't think it has anything to do with Covid specifically. Especially if the complaints are so vague that almost everything is included.
My theory: When it became clear that Covid was not as deadly as originally suggested, something had to be devised to make it appear serious. I have had that discussion with people myself. Literally admitting that Covid might not have been so bad after all, but oh dear, long Covid. Anyway, get that syringe.
According to RIVM, 1 in 3 people in the Netherlands are chronically ill. Seems like an insanely high number to me. Was it always like that? I don't think so, but let's find out how we ended up in this situation. A very small percentage of these are labeled 'long covid'. I don't see it as a disease but as a label.
Key figures
About 5.3 million Dutch people have a chronic disease according to previous RIVM estimates.
In broader calculations (which also include milder or multiple conditions), this amounts to approximately 8.5 million people, almost half of the population.
Do we ever see articles about this in MSM? What's going on here? Long Covid makes the front page, but we consider the fact that a large part of the population has chronic conditions to be normal? Strange world.
It may all cost something... Of course I don't wish death on anyone, but Geert Vandenbossche, among others, saw/sees it bleakly. Is that what we now see with the massively vaccinated penguins in zoos against bird flu (vector)? Will research be conducted into why some penguins from the same group survive the serious intestinal infections or later die from them in another zoo? I don't expect an article about penguins here 😉 Very grateful for what I have already read and learned here!
Our country is doing well again, it really is
Well, the Netherlands anyway. Within the rich countries we are in the 'prolonged depression' group.
CBS, on the other hand, talks about an additional 2 months of life expectancy for newborns in 2025.
Attention is thus shifted on the one hand to the expected age to be reached by the currently zero-year-olds in more than 80 years and on the other hand to a short-term comparison with a previous year.
Excess mortality is also examined over short periods so that the multi-year trend (see the article below) remains out of the picture.
Do we not want or are we not allowed to see it?
A positive point: it seems to be dawning on MK that Covid in general has not given a 'shock' but a 'scar' (lasting effect).
Strangely enough, the potential negative role of the 'vaccines' is not mentioned in the article. MK does mention it, but of course in a positive sense (fewer vaccines, more mortality) in addition to fewer lockdowns and an unhealthier population (in my opinion it does not matter for changes in expected lifespan within a country), predictable weather, but not based on any grounds. (I think Hungary will win in terms of oversteft)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.02.25.26347112v1.full.pdf
Latest CBS data
https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2026/11/173-duizend-mensen-overleden-in-2025
Conclusion CBS (it's really there):
“More people are dying
And so…
Life expectancy is increasing!'
There is more to say about this, but not right now…
They explain it too. "Due to the growth and aging of the population, the number of deaths is increasing every year. In 2020, at the beginning of the corona pandemic, more people died than in previous years. After two fairly stable years after the pandemic, the number of deaths has been increasing again since 2024."
The rivm can also do something about it.
For example: “There was also less excess mortality in the last respiratory season than in the five seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic (on average 7,285 excess deaths per respiratory season from 2014/2015 to 2018/2019).”
They mean “before we raised the baseline.”
Should I write an article about this again...
Idk - no one there dares to say that it is their own. is a step function?
You mean like plateaus or something? That doesn't solve anything for them. This cannot be explained as a spontaneous phenomenon either. Never seen before.
It is a human reaction, “ostrich politics”, a psychological defense mechanism to deny, distort and/or ignore actual reality. They even go a step further by making adjustments and spreading disinformation with the help of the media. (AI uses roughly the same words but I might like to read that 😉). To my astonishment, I see similar behavior around me when it comes to the story about asbestos in play sand at many daycare centers, schools and at home. I immediately inquired because of my grandchildren (fortunately I had no contact with this sand). The lukewarm slow responses (because long term?) are incomprehensible in my eyes. Or has asbestos proven to be less dangerous? A lot of money has been made from it. People have actually died from it. Clear similarities with the reactions to excess mortality. I think that a lot of people can only be affected in their wallets... and that's where I saw the statement in the media, the war in the Middle East... so predictable! Half of Germany had long been at its worst... and things are deteriorating rapidly here too.
In February I took a closer look at long-term mortality figures and the excess mortality calculations. I do have some news to report about that, so I could provide some input for a critical re-evaluation. I am therefore in favor of 'another' article on this subject.
For example, in response to that RIVM comment about flu mortality in 2014/2015-2019, you could note that that mortality was actually an extreme 'flu excess mortality', because the average annual flu mortality in the 15-year period before that (2000-2015) was only approximately 2000 people. The latter can be deduced from previous research into the Mexican flu (1999-2010) and the actual figures for flu in 2010-2015.
In other words If we use realized mortality rates in 2015-2019 as basic material for estimating excess mortality in the COVID years, then you are in fact working with a 'stacked excess mortality problem'... Is that awareness there? and has that ever been discussed? What is the effect on the calculation of COVID-19 excess mortality?
Then realize that during the COVID period itself, CBS and RIVM also do a lot of juggling with the excess mortality and flu figures before and after vaccination in order to put the necessity and proper functioning of the vaccines in a favorable light as much as possible. See also the latest article by Herman Steigstra. This further adds to the confusion.
How should we deal with this, and can't we come up with something simpler and more transparent? Should we continue with CBS and RIVM, with their so-called 'black-box' models?
Good point. Then it may seem like a trend since 2000 that flu mortality is increasing... but the trend break in 2021 is undeniable.
How we should deal with it: you know our Standard Mortality? https://virusvaria.nl/de-noodzaak-van-een-normsterfte-notitie-voor-ria-de-korte-de-tweede-kamer/