The current mortality rate 2019-2020 is slightly below that of the 'strong' flu season 2017-2018, including Carnival. "So nothing is wrong" you can read here and there. What is forgotten in that comparison is that that flu season lasted 18 weeks. Corona has had free rein for about three weeks. After that, superspread events were abolished (that didn't even happen in '17-'18, nor did extra hand washing) and a little later spring arrived. The latter is always the signal for viruses to go on holiday, every year. With a return ticket for the autumn.
So you can say that corona is 6 times as dangerous as the flu: in 3 weeks almost the same excess mortality as a severe flu took 18 weeks to achieve. It is certainly not 'nothing'. But on the other hand, countries without a strict lockdown followed the same pattern. [edit: The death rates appear to be serious worst case interpreted because many 'corona' deaths had co-morbidities: they died from a combination of diseases, including corona. With flu it is called a 'natural death', but not with corona because otherwise the fear of the disease would not be great enough.]
Anyway: Corona is not done with us yet. We will only be 'rid of corona' when sufficient immunity has been built up. It remains to be seen whether a vaccine will achieve this. There is no vaccine or cure for the common cold (also a corona variant). That may not have been serious enough, but it did not work for SARS and MERS either. The effectiveness of the regular flu vaccine is also very good relative. So all the balls on the vaccine? Bad call. Herd immunity then, we have to do something.
From 60% immunity, the virus gets problems spreading. What percentage are we actually at? That's going to be estimated, because we just don't know the current immunization rate. The estimates range from say 6% to 20% of the Dutch. They would then have had corona and therefore built up a certain immunity that is expected to offer protection for at least six months and, in case of later reinfection, at least a better immune response and lower mortality.
What can we expect in the coming seasons?
We are now at a total excess mortality of about 9,000. The lockdown itself has also caused deaths, but let's be mild and say that 8,000 of the 9,000 have died from the corona disease. [edit: this has now been estimated much lower due to the aforementioned co-morbidities and the lockdown itself has more dramatic health effects than the known figures that have not been taken into account.]
Best case: 20% immunity
If we currently set the immunity percentage at 20%, we will have to pass through a total of three times as much infection to reach 60%, that is 3x20% = 3x8,000 = 24,000 deaths, so 16,000 more to go. After all, we have had the first wave.
Worst case: 6% immunity
If we set the current immunity percentage at 6%, we still have to kill ten times as much, a total of 10x6% = 10x8,000 = 80,000 deaths, so 72,000 more to go... wow, that's a lot. (I really hope I'm wrong about the vaccine.)
Dream case: 30% immunity (hope brings life)
If it is 30%, then we have had half of it... but then we will have a risk of similar outbreaks again next year, although the virus will have a more difficult time spreading.
Looking forward
The coming flu seasons will therefore mean something. It will depend on our behavior (washing hands, ventilation, hygiene, dealing with events - hopefully no lockdowns) how many seasons are required - but those deaths are inevitable. A vaccine will hopefully have a dampening effect, but will spread the process over more seasons. Corona as a cause of death will not disappear unless we simply classify it as the flu. That means: slightly heavier flu seasons. That trend was already there. It actually indicates that we are increasingly able to help people live longer, despite the fact that they are becoming increasingly vulnerable.
Some of the people who have now died from corona might also have been felled by a severe flu or another cause. There will undoubtedly be an overlap between those two groups. So it will certainly not be a hard addition of flu + corona, it will be one of the two for each individual. But it will undeniably result in additional deaths.
Carnival 2021 is actually just not in it
Next autumn and early next year, we will certainly still be facing increased seasonal mortality. Carnival would mean a guaranteed repeat of the past period with unmanageable outbreaks. Assuming that we still want to combat immunization and cannot reshape care and ICU policy, it could be that carnival 2021 will not take place. Make it a face mask/outdoor event! (Provided aerosol theory is not criminalized.)
FEATHER CELEBRATE CARONAVAL!
Spring goan noa fine tow
feather goan noa fine tow
feather loate us neet höbbe!
Ver junt noa fine toe
Ver junt noa fine toe
See more you need now!
Veer kleje us good werrem oan
With scarves and break and cap
Corona blew mer tasty doa
Feather loate us neet infected!
Spring goan noa fine tow
feather goan noa fine tow
feather loate us neet höbbe!
Ver junt noa fine toe
Ver junt noa fine toe
See more you need now!
Meh! Fine hosse gèt hiel gutter!
That's mich werrem in the kaw
Mien pilske bleif och lekker keul
And that of heur gèt sjus zoe gow
- of lang....zaaam:
Spring goan noa fine tow
feather goan noa fine tow
feather loate us neet höbbe!
Ver junt noa fine toe
Ver junt noa fine toe
See more you need now!
What zowwe veer noe inne do
Stoon Zwète and Stoon Dringe
Hej fine brent dit joar the lamp
Hej kinne ver vol-oet zinge:
Spring goan noa fine tow
feather goan noa fine tow
feather loate us neet höbbe!
Ver junt noa fine toe
Ver junt noa fine toe
See more you need now!
© Anton
