Heavily vaccinated New Zealand is a country that is often cited as proof that the vaccines do not cause excess mortality. After all, there is undermortality there. That turns out not to be the case, as I will show. Whether this is a case of mistakes or scientific fraud, you can decide for yourself after reading this article. It actually comes down to this: If the best boy in the class suddenly gets 6 minuses and the rest gets threes and fours, then you can't say that it can't be the new teacher's fault because that kid still gets passes, can you?
New Zealand is one of the countries that is mentioned over and over again as proof that it cannot be the vaccines (along with Sweden that less bad batches seems to have had).
ASMR for dummies
De samenstelling van een bevolking verschilt per land. Een van de verschillen is de leeftijdsopbouw. Weinig ouderen of juist veel, of een baby-boom die langzaam de groep tachtigers binnenschuift: het zijn trage processen maar wel van invloed op de sterftecijfers. Om landen onderling toch te kunnen vergelijken is ASMR bedacht (Age Stratified Mortality Rate). Deze laat zien hoe de sterfte zou zijn als alle vergeleken bevolkingen dezelfde 'model-opbouw' zouden hebben qua leeftijd. Er is voor dat doel een soort doorsnee-bevolkingssamenstelling gekozen (in feite twee; vaak wordt die van WHO 2019 gebruikt en die is backwards compatible). De sterftekansen voor elk land worden toegepast op die model-bevolking. De bevolking wordt dus vervangen door een fictieve, jongere bevolking - et voilá, we kunnen landen vergelijken. De vuistregel voor een normale ASMR-sterfte is 750 per 100.000 mensen (100k). Een soort van internationaal gemiddelde.
Using the ASMR calculation, the graph with excess mortality comparison below, by @dobbsi at X. New Zealand actually has a slight under mortality in this graph in the 2020-2023 period. The only one in the world.
As for vaccines, it is surprising that 2020 is included. In that year, there was no jab. On the contrary, measures then put society on hold which may have led to less activity and fewer accidents. So we zoom in on that New Zealand block 2020-23.
Per 100K, no ASMR
Indeed 2020 pulls the average down but even 2021-2023 still remains below the ASMR standard of 750. Even if we include 2024 (estimated).
How is that possible? On OurWorldInData there is a completely different graph. At least around 10 to 15% excess mortality post-vaccination. (And Covid also came there post-vaccination, so those vaccines didn't really work well anyway).
Now there is something to be said about that baseline of OWID. It works with averages and therefore does not take into account rising or falling trends. If you extend a downward trend from 2015-2019 to 2024, it comes out very different from a horizontal average. So I made a baseline for NZ myself, based on mortality per 100K (Crude Mortality Rate) since 1996.
Op Twitter liet ik een paar grafieken zien maar die werden afgeserveerd door Pieter Trapman en Dobbsi omdat het geen ASMR-grafieken waren. Dat maakt eigenlijk niet zo heel veel uit maar ja - dat moet je dan eerst weer laten zien want die experts geloven je toch niet en argumenten helpen niet.
You should ALWAYS look at ASMR, say the real statisticians. Only. Otherwise you're just messing around.
Are we too easily bluffed by a bit of mystification? Why does ASMR matter so much, if you only compare consecutive years of 1 country. Then the accrual differs at most a few tenths of a percent per year, and that is completely irrelevant for this story.
New Zealand's ASMR graph
OK - I threw in the age-stratified source data.
- Population data Summary-figures-for-the-NZ-population-1991-2023.xlsx (2024 I estimated myself based on this and some other sources)
- Age-stratified population data
- The mortality data are also there, age-stratified to 2021. The 2022 and 2023 totals are already there, though, and the 2024 total is pretty much there as well. So based on those totals and the trends by age cohort, there is an estimated age structure as of 2022, in line with previous trends. That is this file.
Nu wil ik best aannemen dat ASMR, waarmee je alle landen dezelfde bevolkingsopbouw geeft, 'accurater' is of zo, in wetenschappelijke zin. Als je de sterfte onder bevolking van 30 jaar geleden wil vergelijken met die van nu moet je uiteraard heel goed naar de bevolkingsopbouw en -grootte kijken. Als je landen onderling vergelijkt dan is het zelfs necessary om óók naar ASMR te kijken. 'Ook', zeg ik met nadruk, niet 'alleen maar'.
If you do that, it turns out that New Zealand is simply an exceptionally healthy country with excellent health care, a younger population (on average 5 years younger than NL), possibly a cleaner environment, more sports, less densely populated, better weather, you name it. And that healthy country has suddenly become a lot unhealthier post-vaccination. But then you shouldn't just look at the ASMR standard in a given year. Then you have to look at the past.
De ASMR-grafiek lijkt qua verloop wel op de 'crude' per 100K grafiek maar wat gedraaid en de schaal is anders, de getallen zijn natuurlijk anders, het is immers niet de bevolking van Nieuw-Zeeland waar we naar kijken. De enorme groei van met name de oudere cohorts (70+) is dus niet meegenomen in deze fictieve bevolking. Ga met je muis over de grafiek om in te zoomen op de laatste 15 jaar.
Als we nu geen fictieve bevolkingsopbouw nemen maar de werkelijke, ziet het er als volgt uit. De groei van 60-plussers verhoogt de sterfte per 100K. Dat draagt bij aan de oversterfte, als jet het tenminste niet weg-ASMR't.
Met die 100K-grafieken op Twitter was dus niet zoveel mis. Als je 2021-2023 vergelijkt met de 750K baseline die de WHO heeft voorgesteld (grijze lijn), kun je inderdaad zeggen: In Nieuw-Zeeland zien we geen oversterfte. Maar dan vertel je er niet bij dat Nieuw-Zeeland met zo'n baseline al 25 jaar een enorme ondersterfte heeft, rond de -10%. Die gezondheid zijn ze in 2022 in één klap kwijtgeraakt.
De oversterftepercentages ten opzichte van de trendlijn worden na 2021 plotseling 4x zo hoog als in de afgelopen 25 jaar...!? Tien procent boven de NZ-baseline! Maak er desnoods 8% van als je de opkrullende baseline accepteert. In decennia niet vertoond en nu 3 jaar achter elkaar.
Als je dat 'ondersterfte' noemt, vergis je je dan of lieg je?
Why?
Een grafiekenmachine als @dobssi die bezig is met 'de coronaperiode' en niet specifiek interesse heeft in een eventueel effect van de vaccins, daar kun je wat van denken. Maar dat Prof. Dr. Pieter Trapman, universiteit Groningen mij naar hem doorverwijst: "kijk zo doe je dat"... Ik snap het niet.
And Prof. Dr. Ruben van Gaalen mouthpiece of CBS 1Numerical Confirmation of State Lies, or Maarten Keulemans, onze wetenschapscrack van kwaliteitsmedium De Volkskrant... Dat die Nieuw-Zeeland aanhalen als lichtend voorbeeld van vaccinatieveiligheid; die hadden hier toch allang doorheen moeten prikken!?
Do they really think they can get away with these excuses in the long run? Or are they just really bad at their jobs?
Ik vraag me werkelijk af wat er aan de hand is in de media en in de wetenschap - en waarom.
Footnotes
- 1Numerical Confirmation of State Lies
It remains silent (still) on these questions. I think there are many reasons and in my opinion all irresponsible. We will be even more surprised when "answers" go and/or will come. As a child I lived in a sect and from a very young age I resisted the bizarre rules and dress codes. Despite the heavy punishments, I remained in resistance. Years later, apologies would come and I went to the conversation full of hope. "Sorry you had to wear those itchy clothes, but we didn't know it bothered you." Nothing else, not even when they broke away from the sect themselves. I expect something like that on a global scale now but keep hope for more! Thank you for continuing to ask these questions and all the work!
I have forwarded this to X. The penny has to drop that mRNA and Vector technology is dangerous.
Ward, do you understand that statisticians throw that ASMR argument into the fray? Then you expose yourself as either a liar or a charlatan, don't you?
It's ridiculous. Surely they must realize that if there are extremes in mortality per age that you don't see them with ASMR?
This is all going to come true. Time is only in favor of the charlatans and snake oil sellers. That is actually hard to swallow.
Nice to see that you don't focus on one method Anton! I tried to teach you this a year ago..... 😀
It is the combination of several methods, which provides a good insight.
ASMR is really not the holy grail. It is a tool to 'easily' compare several countries.
But for real analytics, you need to drill down.
For example, the mortality rate of Sweden is mainly so favorable (ASMR method) because ten years ago they had a remarkably high mortality in the 30-50 year olds. This has now dropped back to normal values, while higher mortality can now be seen among 60+.
This results in a 'flat' line across the board.
Certainly, I will also keep an eye on both you and Hans Verwaart. I can best defend Herman's own approach as you know.
I have never seen ASMR as the holy grail, but I have always respectfully taken a step back when statistical experts started waving it. I thought that was enough for a while. The New Zealand ASMR was the last straw the provaxxers had left, that's why. The fallacies are now really gone.
The problem is also that it is not over. I just read that in Alberta, Canada, babies are injected with a flu/Covid shot. At least 1 has already died. At John Campbell that there are now tests with mRNA-based RSV injections. Trials on children up to 2 years of age. Cancelled because there were too many side effects. And we are the crazies?
Facilities are being built at various locations around the world to make mRNA products on a large scale (Canada, UK, Australia).
Your last sentence seems like a kind of cry of despair. I recognize it.
Great analysis, thank you!
I searched for the discussion on Twitter/X but strangely enough couldn't find it. Can you post a link to the discussion there?
https://x.com/PieterTrapman/status/1867596758160749029
Also hidden under that big graph of dobbsi.
One of the regulars here invariably leaves a "Not OK" thumbs down. Sometimes I can understand that too. But I would like to hear what is wrong with this article. I'm not saying anything strange, I'm not speculating here, am I?
I, as a layman, immediately thought, yes but what was the mortality per 100K in NZ for 2020? The ASMR standard is useful for comparing mortality between countries at a certain point in time, but otherwise it says nothing about the course of mortality over time. What does the same graph look like from 2017-2019, for example? New Zealand has even higher undermortality as you have already shown of course, but other (high vaccination rate) countries?
And if 2020 had not been included, New Zealand would not have undermortality I suspect.
"I really wonder what's going on in the media and in science – and why. "
The White Coats Faith?
My own working definition of a "faith" (as a casual religious scholar) is "predatory ingroup" here.
The ingroup members get a bigger share of the cake than the outgroup, which is why they constantly drive each other to the middle of the school: Less risk, more cake.
By the way, the bird flu outbreaks are now breaking out, just in time for Trump 2. What a coincidence.
It's amazing how since the CRISPR research that is supposed to keep us 'safe' against unexpected zoonoses, new diseases keep breaking out – for which fortunately there are already patented drugs.
My own conspiracy rule of thumb? The profit machine comes in 2 flavors: war and disease. When vested interests are in power, it is up to the war industry. As pesky populists, then a new disease. Time for some Pfizer blood money shares. (not with me)
Great piece of work, Anton! At the ASMR for dummies, I immediately got the feeling: "But you can't tar all countries with the same brush, can you?!" Population structure is one thing, but living habits and conditions and health care are at least as decisive. That is why your perseverance on this point is very important and enlightening. Thank you for that.