Throughout the Western world, Excess mortality for months: more people also die in the Netherlands than was expected by Statistics Netherlands. At the end of September, the Eucalyptic Society calculated that 23% of this was due to corona. Excess mortality continues to rise: at the time it was about 100 per week, but the 200 mark has now been reached. The share of corona-related deaths lags behind that development. The causes of the rising mortality rates remain guesswork because CBS has not reported any causes of death since 1 July, which used to happen monthly. It is still unclear what the stagnation is due to.
The figures from the Netherlands (CBS and RIVM) per week are as follows:
In an earlier article a number of suggested scenarios were calculated and assessed as unlikely, such as the often mentioned 'postponed care'. Deferred care - which took place from March/April last year - is, apart from the numerical inconsistencies, also difficult to reconcile with the normal mortality pattern (and even under-mortality) earlier this year.
Since June, excess mortality excl. Covid looks like this:
Enlarged (middle piece torn out):
With covid, "only" 627 people died in that period. In addition, 2,570 more people died than expected, the cause of death of which is unknown. The excess mortality of people with a cause other than covid is therefore about 4x as high as the excess mortality with/due to covid.
It follows that if even 25% of the unknown excess mortality (i.e. 642 deaths) could be attributed to the vaccinations, the vaccinations would have a negative effect on balance.
More people will die during this period from vaccination than would die without vaccination. And maybe even younger people too, which would mean a lot more lost QALY.
The Eucalyptic Society trots on
It is obvious to generalize these findings. The Eucalyptic Society continues to calculate and, well-founded even up to a break-even of 18%. So if more than 18% of excess mortality is vaccine-related, more people have died than saved by vaccinations.
However, the Society ignores the fact that it is only about the summer period. In the summer, vaccinations against a seasonal disease have little effect. As admission and death rates rise again, so will the 'saved' lives – provided vaccinations continue to do their job. You could argue that most deaths are prevented in the winter months so that the debt is then repaid.
All in all, vaccinations are in a danger zone. There should have been very close monitoring. That is Not happened. Especially in the younger age groups, where few deaths can be prevented because they do not occur often, things are not looking good for the vaccines.
Critical statements
- A 'break-even' calculation is irrelevant with a vaccine. The NNTV must be comparable to conventional vaccines.
- It is absurd to have to weigh in on a gold scale. A vaccine must have a much safer profile of virtually ZERO deaths from side effects, except for a few very exceptional cases at most. Previous vaccines have been discontinued for less.
- It is abnormal to knowingly make so many sacrifices, regardless of any outcome. After all, the sacrifices continue, even if on the other hand, lives of the elderly in particular are saved.
- It is unjust to make sacrifices in age groups that have nothing to fear from the disease.
It is of course true that the balance will turn the other way again in the winter, but if the rising mortality trend 'without Covid' continues, the vaccinations will have to work really well to achieve a net positive result. Among younger age groups, this seems almost impossible. One very outspoken approach relies on VAERS data with a multiplier of 40, to compensate for the known underreporting. Calculating with such an assumption does outline a possible scenario, but offers too few anchor points for a convincing argument.
But even if you calculate with a multiplication factor of 20 or even 10, the damage remains at a level that would never have been accepted before for a disease from which 98.5% of the infected have little to no symptoms and from which a maximum of 0.15% of the infected worldwide died, while the treatments are constantly improving and there may be effective drugs available. These are kept off the market for a while in favor of the pharmaceutical companies (Merck itself has now submitted a pill for approval).
Waning protection does not cooperate
Looking at Israel and the UK, it will be a challenge for the vaccines to keep the balance positive. They are clearly losing their effect there, not only in terms of infections but also the protection against disease is waning. Among Covid patients in hospital, the distribution of vaccinated and unvaccinated is sometimes already comparable to the non-sick outside. The infection rate among vaccinated people is even higher in the US than among the unvaccinated, can be read in a pre-print study. In the Netherlands, too, there are noises from various sides that vaccinated people are starting to end up in hospital to a considerable extent. Here directly from the source (Maastricht UMC) where about 8 out of 10 Covid patients have been vaccinated.
Overheden en gezondheidsinstanties zullen een slimme exit-strategie moeten bedenken. We wachten de persco in spanning af, eens kijken wie de schuld gaat krijgen.
[also read the erratum op de vorige post over de 55% gevaccineerd in ziekenhuizen]
