As a Christmas present, we received a substantial reduction in excess mortality rates last week. We recall a similar previous attempt from May 2022, when the bandwidth was suddenly increased without notice.
Dat bleek een ongelukje dat niemand was opgevallen bij RIVM/CBS. Het grootste deel van de oversterfte leek toen heel even verdwenen. Het is nu grondiger aangepakt zoals te zien is in onderstaande grafiek. De bandbreedte is bijna een constante geworden: In de zomer is nu net zoveel zorgeloze extra sterfte toegestaan als 's winters. Bij oversterfte in de zomer lijken alarmbellen gevoeglijk achterwege te kunnen blijven.
Ook zien we een sterk stijgende tendens: de 'baseline' wordt jaarlijks opgehoogd. In juli 2022 zien we een knip: vanaf dat moment 'mogen' er plotseling 112 mensen meer overlijden dan daarvoor, elke week opnieuw. Dat zijn op jaarbasis ca. vijf-en-een-halfduizend extra overlijdens die we als normaal kunnen accepteren. Als dat door de vergrijzing wordt veroorzaakt, dan zet die die wel héél plotseling in. In juli 2023 opnieuw een soortgelijk knipje, maar veel kleiner. Stopt de vergrijzing daar weer?
De maatschappelijke relevantie van zo'n ingreep behoeft geen betoog. Wat we accepteren aan extra sterfte is niet alleen een statistische overweging. We hebben de openbare discussie daarover echter gemist. Mogelijk is het ook in het Staatsbelang dat de oversterfte zo snel mogelijk aan de horizon verdwijnt, inclusief de verdeling wel/niet gevaccineerd. Dat gaat wel lukken op deze manier: aan de grijze lijn zie je dat de verwachte sterfte in feb22 nog lager is dan de ondersterftegrens van 2 jaar later. En wat in feb22 nog als oversterfte gold, ligt in feb24 gewoon rond de verwachting.
Let's hope that this new approach will not distract attention in the upcoming excess mortality debate, nor in the evaluations of the past corona period, when corona policy was based on different principles. Surely we cannot classify these methods that have been used and tried and tested so far as unreliable, especially when the government wants to regain trust?
Kortom: de baseline stijgt, zo is nu verordonneerd, en we zullen er nog wel achter komen waarom daartoe is besloten. Het bepalen van die 'baseline', de verwachte sterfte, kan immers op allerlei manieren. We hebben daar al eerder aandacht aan besteed en scharen ons achter de berekening die door Herman Steigstra et al on Researchgate has been worked out.
Other calculators sometimes think differently. In the coming days, we will give space to two contributions, one by Bonne Klok and one by Bert Oosterhout. Bonne, who Previously pointed out op een mogelijke overschatting van de oversterfte, geeft met name commentaar op de wijze waarop de cijfers steeds zijn gepresenteerd, Bert betoogt dat de oversterfte aanzienlijk te hoog is ingeschat - al blijven de cijfers zelfs in die zienswijze verontrustend.
I would now like to wish all readers a pleasant ending and a transparent and combative 2024!
Thanks to statistics, everything will be back in order and we don't have to worry about anything. The fact that everyone gets sick and dies suddenly is just a matter of feeling. What genius they are at the RIVM and CBS.
Anton, best wishes too. Hang in there!
A word about excess mortality. I may sound like a skipping record, but I still want to mention it again. If you look at each week, there is a risk that we will dive too much into the details. Must also be done to monitor the trends. But the moment you look at annual figures, it's blindingly simple, and impossible to hide the huge increase. I have added up the numbers up to week 48 for the years below.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
134.348 138.073 135.978 148.84 1 149.910 150.288 150.655
I don't have access to decent excel for a while, so graphs are difficult now. This is just coming from all the cijfers.nl that make it from CBS in my opinion.
So 2023 is not lower, and there is no question of a gradual increase. Assume that people like Steigstra, Meester & Jacobs will also take this with them. The above list leaves nothing to be desired in terms of clarity. Compared to 2019, this is a consistent increase of around 10%.
Well, just wanted to say this.
Agree Cees, but you have to show right away that it is not about aging, migration or other population growth. Then it automatically becomes more complex.
It offers hope for future 'pandemics': they are becoming less and less deadly thanks to this measure!
With the expected mortality figures from the RIVM, the mortality monitor of their total becomes worthless. These expected values are so high that it doesn't really mean anything.
The table below shows the following quantities;
– actual mortality per year.
– the expected mortality based on a linear rule from 2009 to 2019
– 95% upper limit of the margin of uncertainty of the above linear regression.
– the expected mortality of Statistics Netherlands (CBS)
– the expected mortality of the RIVM, where 2021 and 2024 have been extrapolated
————————lin.regr.—–lin.regr.
———–mortality—2009-2019–bov.grns——–CBS——RIVM—
2020—-167167—–155102—–160279——156667———–
2021—-170322—–157024—–162201——154890—151943—
2022—-169762—–158945—–164122——155496—158616—
2023—-170262—–160867—–166044——156666—165743—
2024——————-162789—–167965——————168402—
Best wishes for the New Year to all visitors of this site.
Mike, I reserved the URL sterftemonitor.nl. Let's see how we can fill them, because we can't expect much more from the government institutions.
Good action!
I would suggest that we at least show the figures from my previous response;
– actual mortality per year.
– the expected mortality based on a linear regression from 2009 to 2019
– 95% upper limit of the margin of uncertainty of the above linear regression.
– the expected mortality of the CBS (they are probably not going to continue this)
– the expected mortality of the RIVM
In addition, perhaps life expectancy and an international comparison with Germany and Belgium.
To me, their deliberate cheating for the purpose of deception alone indicates that there must be a consciousness of guilt on the part of higher-ups, that this is a coordinated, knowingly cover-up.
This also means that there must be potential whistleblowers with the relevant authorities.
Or is our Dutch society so totalitarian that they are removed in a timely and effective manner?
If you continue to reason, you really end up in a stinking corrupt hole where they are about corpses. There is no other way.
Our government... The fish rots first at the head.
Just an afterburner. We had a house built in the middle of the Covid period. Construction began in March 2021. So that was in the middle of the time of lockdowns, working from home etc. etc. Quite difficult because hardware stores are closed and so on.
But... I realized later. The construction workers themselves did not participate in all these situations (neither did we). They just went to the construction site in their van. Nix face masks, nix keep your distance. Just with 4 men in the van back and forth. Turn on the radio, sing along, eat together.
Yet, as far as I know, there have not been huge waves of deaths among construction workers. The house was also completed according to plan. Might be an interesting target group to dedicate a little research to.
Excess mortality exploded in the week before Christmas. More than 750 more deaths than in the week before. Not only in the Netherlands, but also elsewhere in the Western world, much higher mortality rates are reported. The scientists already know the cause: coronavirus variant JN.1.
https://www.gbnews.com/news/covid-scientists-warning-new-variant-global-heart-failure-pandemic
Hi Anton. Did you read the article in the Volkskrant of Thursday, December 28, by Maarten Keulemans? This is the story of a man with vacuum damage. “Shaking and spinning after corona vaccination: does post-vaccination syndrome exist after all.”
Has the penny finally dropped or is it a matter of no longer being able to ignore it? A day later in the same newspaper in 'letter of the day' a moving response from Wendy Dix. 'Not feeling your body, losing yourself, who are you then?'
Hallo Thera,
There's something about that in my post from three days ago (Goede voornemens).