Last week a tweet appeared on Inquiries from reliable sources confirmed this picture for the Netherlands. Unfortunately, we no longer find weekly or monthly statistics at the NICE Foundation. Reason to verify for yourself whether this trend also occurs here.
This article can also be read on Herman Steigstra's site.
According to Alan, the flu season in England would start 4-5 weeks earlier than before and so the flu vaccinations are now given earlier there (if I understand correctly, to students!).
In England, the annual booster injection has been administered since October 2022, so one month later than in our country. The advice in England is now to take a booster every 6 months. Wonderful!
At the same time, we hear reports that the ICUs in the Netherlands are filling up much earlier in the season. We will soon see that this is indeed reflected in the CBS figures. So it's good to take a closer look at that now. So let's take a look at the weekly excess mortality figures.
Before corona
Let's first take a look at what it looked like here before corona. This is the weekly excess mortality since the 2015/2016 season for the total population in the Netherlands.
So we are looking here from July-July, so as not to have to split the flu season into two parts at New Year's. This concerns the weekly excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants. The thin lines are the excess mortality for 4 seasons. We see two years with flu (orange and gray) and two years without flu. The thick green line is the average of these 4 years.
From spring to late autumn this line is on average slightly below zero, from January to March it is above it. It will disappear again in April. This is also the pattern you would normally expect. The flu season starts at the end of December, when the sun shines less and the days become colder. When spring arrives in April, the flu disappears again.
cow
But now let's see what that pattern looked like after corona. We will skip the corona season itself, because we mainly want to know what the mortality pattern will look like after corona has virtually disappeared in the summer of 2021.
It is immediately noticeable that the appearance has completely changed. Since 2021, we have only seen a flat stretch from May to early September, which no longer drops below zero.
But most importantly, what we might call a flu season is now starting in September and lasting until May. So no less than seven months, while previously there were only three.
What do the doctors say?
The medics are silent. There is no “alarm phase 1”. Excess mortality that now starts in September, where it used to only occur in the last weeks of December. So we have to look for “something” that takes place in mid-September.
But could this be flu, corona or another viral infection that comes along in September? We have now heard from a reliable source that hospitals and especially ICUs have started to fill up since September, but these are not respiratory complaints. Foreign.
What does the RIVM say?
The RIVM is also silent in all languages. But not completely, because they know! Just look at what they haveRIVM mortality monitornow shows.
The graph for 80+ still looks normal: the bandwidth is a neat sinus that follows the seasons just like before and the top is in mid-January. Mortality at this age is mainly determined by seasonal viruses, which have their peak in January-February, as we also see in this graph.
But at the age of 65-79 we see a remarkable progression. A strange curvature and a clear shift to the left. The top is already in mid-November and that is a difference of almost 3 months compared to the bandwidth of the elderly. The RIVM also sees this! Extra mortality that is three months ahead of the flu that is yet to come.
Now it is time to project this RIVM bandwidth on the actual mortality. And indeed, the RIVM bandwidth follows the same picture as mortality since 2021. The RIVM is therefore aware of this shift, but is again not sending any signals that something is wrong. The mortality pattern has changed significantly and the baseline is neatly adjusted by the RIVM.
The “Flu season” has been extended from 3 months to 7 months, which led to the introduction of vaccinations in schools in England. But is this really the flu?
What about 80+?
In the oldest generation, the mortality pattern is most influenced by the seasons. In winter, 20% more elderly people die than in summer. But has that changed since 2021 due to “the great unknown”?
This graph clearly shows the change.
The blue line is the average mortality over the two flu seasons preceding the corona episode. A clear bump in January and February, undermortality in the surrounding months. The average excess mortality is therefore approximately zero, because flu is a “last push disease”.
In the years after corona (the green line), we see this increase already occurring in mid-September. The peak is at the end of December, when the flu season normally only begins. We even see a short decline before the real flu season starts. The protective effect of the vaccinations during the flu months is not visible, but in the autumn there is an increase in mortality. Bare CBS figures, we can't make it any better...
And at 65-80 years?
Finally, the same figures for 65-80 year olds. Partly the same picture as with the 80+ group, but there is an important difference here. Although there is also a seasonal influence of 10% at this age, we see virtually no influence of the flu waves on mortality. Until 2020, virtually no one under the age of 80 will die from flu.
But that will change from 2021. There too, just like with 80+, we are now seeing an increase in excess mortality from September. We see from the mortality for 2020 that there is hardly any influence from flu among those under the age of 80, but from 2021 there will be an early wave from September. We also see here that there is an increased mortality throughout the summer. That is “the excess mortality”, added to the wave in the autumn, that is the 8% that we have been seeing since 2021.
Is this bad?
Yes, that's bad! Deniers of excess mortality and the possible relationship with vaccination usually argue that the calculation of the baseline should be different. The RIVM takes the cake by stating that excess mortality has disappeared (this statement has now been abandoned). It is then assumed that the decline in the mortality rate will have come to an abrupt halt by 2020. Although there is no substantiation for this, there is also no evidence that the decline in mortality would have continued at the same pace if there had been no corona, but it does seem likely that the trend from 2000-2019 would have continued.
But what we have seen since 2021 is that the seasonal wave suddenly lasts 7 months compared to 3 months previously and that cannot be explained by a stagnation in the decline in the mortality rate. “Something” has ensured that this wave starts in September and not only at the end of December. It is extremely unlikely that postponed care will cause such a wave in the spring of 2020. Corona also disappears, because respiratory diseases come in compact waves from December, as soon as the season creates the conditions for this.
With the exception of vaccinations, this essentially sweeps aside all plausible explanations. But the government does not want to investigate that last obvious possibility and that is really bad! In the meantime, the ICUs will be filling up again from September...
That 65-80 graph is quite alarming.
Just read this article by Hart on Substack:
https://hartuk.substack.com/p/superflu-is-flagellistic-expialidotious
The NHS is doing an old-fashioned job of spreading fear with a 'super flu'.
I don't see that in the Netherlands yet, but maybe I'm missing things. Coincidentally, I was in the hospital yesterday and had a bad cold. I called just to be sure, I don't necessarily want to worry people, but no one made a fuss about it. Not even the doctor. He said 'if we have to refuse everyone who has a cold, it will be very quiet here'.
So seems very different to the UK. Flu vaccines seem completely nonsensical, but of course it keeps the stove burning in the pharmaceutical industry. Spoke to someone who I consider to be a sensible person, but who had taken a flu shot. No idea whether you will also receive a Covid mRNA as a bonus. But he literally said that he knew it was pointless, but he took it anyway.
I continue to be amazed.
Advised someone last year not to take coronavax and that a flu shot does not work. So I took the flu shot and then became very ill. This year I had another flu shot and was very ill again. When does the light come on?
It's too complicated and too unpleasant I think. I had a cold for a few days, and that almost never happens. Really years ago. It was over quickly too. Colleagues know that I have not been vaccinated and then joke about Covid vaccines that might have helped. Lame one-liners. But I can't hit back with one-liners. If one does not take the trouble to delve deeper, it will never become clear.
It is actually very disturbing if 'we' are right (and it seems so). People are warned about PFAS, about alcohol consumption, wear helmets on their bikes, they worry about what is happening in Gaza, but in the meantime they allow themselves to be poisoned. Cognitive dissonance. They may know, I already knew it in 2020. But then you have to dare to look beyond NRC, NPO and Volkskrant.
“…… (that statement has now been abandoned)……” Do you have a RIVM source for that? Does RIVM suddenly find that there is excess mortality?
RIVM now says that it does not have the right tools to determine this. So they are not saying that there is NO excess mortality, but only that they lack tools. Our model is therefore very necessary, we read between the lines.
All this in response to our report on Norm Mortality, which is of course not mentioned by RIVM, but can be read between the lines. Anton and in have written an article about this, which has been posted on both this site and mine.
https://steig.nl/2025/10/rivm-benadrukt-noodzaak-van-normsterfte-model/
OK, but idk. no recognition of excess mortality. I just read that from your text.
That would be “big news”.
It is strange that RIVM (and CBS) do not recognize this, because the actuaries [who are extremely good calculators] “know” all too well that the old situation is far from returning.
Purely phenomenological, but diseases in primary schools also seem to be much more rampant in recent years than before Covid. Throughout autumn and winter.
If many more people become symptomatically ill due to VAIDS than before, I think you will get such an epidemiological picture (i.e. a greater risk of infection due to more intrusive spread from the adult population).
Something else, from the RSB substack (Robert Scott Bell). I was shocked by the difference in the numbers of fentanyl deaths (in the US) versus those caused by regular medications...
https://thersbshow.substack.com/p/if-fentanyl-is-a-weapon-of-mass-destruction?isFreemail=true&post_id=181842629&publication_id=1889783&r=c96xe&triedRedirect=true
(sigh, it asks me to follow on substack, but I don't have a presence there)
“symptomatically ill” seems like a pleonasm to me…
Infected without obvious symptoms. More clear this way?
Crystal clear 😉
A must read! Thank you for the link, really shocking: 48,000 vs 250,000 in 2024.
What would the real numbers be in the Netherlands? I don't find much concrete, only that it is difficult to determine (estimate 1,000 per year, previous estimates (much) higher).
Bell: “Medicine already accepts that smoking, environmental toxins, and chronic stress contribute to disease. It is not radical to suggest that chronic pharmaceutical exposure could do the same.
The absence of definitive proof does not mean absence of effect. It often means absence of investigation.”
Unfortunately, I have already lost several family members in November after having previously had a Covid injection. Who is suing the government?
Nuremberg was politics for the stage. Here they become the Queen's Commissioner.
“According to Alan, the flu season in England would start 4-5 weeks earlier than before and so flu vaccinations are now being given earlier there (if I understand correctly, to students!).”
Alan suggests that the early flu season is a result of the early vaccinations; that vaccinations are the cause of the flu. In a response to his own message, he writes: “Especially given that we know the flu nasal spray can cause post-vaccination fever…”
Why give students a flu vaccine? According to the MSM, there is a new variant of flu that makes people sick weeks earlier... The figures are clear, I will use the graphs (again) after a summer full of aggressive questions and lame jokes about whether we were going to take those autumn shots. Absenteeism has already exploded in my area.