300 scientists have published a letter calling for a stand against politicians who "make unsubstantiated accusations and suspicions against scientists". Apart from the language, do these politicians have a point? Does the minister speak on behalf of "science"?
A blog by Herman Steigstra and Anton Theunissen.
Without Ernst Kuipers probably being aware of it, he sketched Thursday evening at Beau In a few minutes (from minute 21) the controversy between science and politics. We first give a brief summary of his statements:
"Until January 2022: 3 million infections in 1.5 years. From January measures were lifted in 4 steps and that meant another 4.7 million infections in 3 months. Not everyone had been tested, so "it is not unrealistic to assume that 6 million have been infected". It is wise to assume that the virus will emerge again in the autumn. We have to take into account a multiple of that: 10 million in 7 months from September. That is why RIVM/GGD continues to monitor the virus.
Then we have to ask ourselves how well the vaccines still working. So: offer vaccine again this autumn, GGD can scale up in a very short time. From 300,000 per week to 1.5 million per week.
Everyone wants the educate no longer close. Covid has high mortality rate, long-term hospitalization and then one is seriously weakened and a long rehabilitation is needed. Maybe next autumn face masks, 1.5m and also school closure belong to possibilities."
So far Beau. Here, Kuipers names all kinds of things and connect them without scientific substantiation. In addition to being a minister, Kuipers is also a scientist who is now taking this into his mouth, but are they scientific or political statements? This is exactly what is now creating the dichotomy in society. Let's pick a few.
- Infections Keeping track is essential with an A-List virus because it poses a threat to public health. However, SARS-CoV-2 has been granted A status to make it easier for politicians to intervene, not because of health-threatening characteristics. This is in anticipation of any dangerous mutations. This does not happen with other recurring viruses such as influenza or rhinovirus. So no scientific consideration.
- Face masks. Both scientist pur sang Van Dissel and ministers Van Ark and De Jonge have stated that face masks have no effect. But they do have a signaling function. A political choice, not science.
- One and a half meters. There is no scientific basis for this. Not even a clue. A single passenger in an airplane did not infect the closest neighbors, but it did infect passengers who were dozens of meters away. It is more like sticking to original choices that are enforceable.
- Measures. Several scientific publications have shown that measures hardly make a contribution, at most a "flatten the curve”. Nevertheless, Kuipers links the tripling of infections since the beginning of this year to the lifting of measures. Not science, a political observation.
- Effect of vaccines. Science is strongly divided and is the subject of discussion on this. Publications from the Pfizer camp tell us that the vaccines are safe and reliable. However, more and more international publications show that vaccinations may even be counterproductive and also harmful to our health. By offering vaccination to us again next autumn without any reservations, the government is therefore opting for the "scientific" line of pharmacy: it is safe and protects us. The scientific discussion is being concealed, a political choice. The fact that South Africa has a booster rate of only 5% at the same rate is concealed by "our" scientists.
- Schools close? We have not yet seen any scientific evidence that closing schools leads to fewer infections. On the contrary, our own figures show an increase in infections in the age of 0-29 years as soon as schools close due to measures or holidays. So it seems more like a political statement.
- Mortality rate Covid. Kuipers recently stated in the Senate that the mortality rate is 0.9% after infection, while publications mentioned 0.1% to 0.25%. It is now 10 to 20 times lower after the arrival of the Omicron variant and a very mild course compared to the original Wuhan variant. We are curious to know which publications Kuipers is referring to.
It is therefore not surprising that an increasing part of the Dutch population is rebelling against this. Choices are political choices and politicians try to keep up the appearance that they are the results of scientific research.
That in the House of Representatives words like "corrupt" and "unreliable" is of course reprehensible, but if the call for open scientific substantiation is ignored, this dissenting voice will only become stronger. The certainty with which Kuipers once again presented the choices of politics in the media as "Science" makes us think about the intentions of our government.
New variant: BA.5
In the meantime, a new variant is starting to rise. Kuipers does not expect this until next autumn and he may expect 10 million infections then, but we can already see him coming in when we look at the PCR figures. It seems that this is the BA.5 variant. Not yet to be seen from the hospital admission figures, but from the PCR, just take a look at this graph from the growth rate Compared to the number of hospital admissions:
Growth rate PCR
Hospital admissions
The R has risen to 1.1 if we calculate it based on the PCR. Should we be worried now? Installing splash screens, wearing face masks, closing schools? None of that. We take a look at the figures from South Africa and then we are immediately reassured:
Exactly according to the calculations for extra infectiousness and built-up immunity, the number of cases, admissions and deaths is about a third of the BA.1 wave we had here in January/March. That means around 50-100 admissions per day. There is a catch: in South Africa it is now winter and here it is summer. This means that we are now benefiting from the seasonal effect, which will disappear again next autumn. The second half of the BA.5 wave will follow in November, put it on the calendar!
And oh yes, in South Africa only 5% of the population has been boostered and yet there is only a minimal bump to be seen. If it were to become more intense in the Netherlands, it would make you think about the efficacy of the vaccines!
