Heavily vaccinated New Zealand is a country that is often cited as proof that the vaccines do not cause excess mortality. After all, there is undermortality there. That turns out not to be the case, as I will show. Whether this is a case of mistakes or scientific fraud, you can decide for yourself after reading this article. It actually comes down to this: If the best boy in the class suddenly gets 6 minuses and the rest gets threes and fours, then you can't say that it can't be the new teacher's fault because that kid still gets passes, can you?
New Zealand is one of the countries that is mentioned over and over again as proof that it cannot be the vaccines (along with Sweden that less bad batches seems to have had).
ASMR for dummies
The composition of a population differs per country. One of the differences is the age structure. Few elderly people or many, or a baby boom that slowly moves into the group of octogenarians: these are slow processes but do affect mortality rates. In order to be able to compare countries with each other, ASMR (Age Stratified Mortality Rate) has been devised. This shows what the mortality would be like if all the populations compared had the same 'model structure' in terms of age. For that purpose, a kind of average population composition has been chosen (in fact two; often the one from WHO 2019 is used and it is backwards compatible). The mortality probabilities for each country are applied to that model population. So the population is replaced by a fictitious, younger population – et voilá, we can compare countries. The rule of thumb for normal ASMR mortality is 750 per 100,000 people (100k). A kind of international average.
Using the ASMR calculation, the graph with excess mortality comparison below, by @dobbsi at X. New Zealand actually has a slight under mortality in this graph in the 2020-2023 period. The only one in the world.
As for vaccines, it is surprising that 2020 is included. In that year, there was no jab. On the contrary, measures then put society on hold which may have led to less activity and fewer accidents. So we zoom in on that New Zealand block 2020-23.
Per 100K, no ASMR
Indeed 2020 pulls the average down but even 2021-2023 still remains below the ASMR standard of 750. Even if we include 2024 (estimated).
How is that possible? On OurWorldInData there is a completely different graph. At least around 10 to 15% excess mortality post-vaccination. (And Covid also came there post-vaccination, so those vaccines didn't really work well anyway).
Now there is something to be said about that baseline of OWID. It works with averages and therefore does not take into account rising or falling trends. If you extend a downward trend from 2015-2019 to 2024, it comes out very different from a horizontal average. So I made a baseline for NZ myself, based on mortality per 100K (Crude Mortality Rate) since 1996.
On Twitter I showed some graphs but they were dismissed by Pieter Trapman and Dobbsi because they were not ASMR graphs. That doesn't really matter that much but yes - you have to show that again first because those experts don't believe you anyway and arguments don't help.
You should ALWAYS look at ASMR, say the real statisticians. Only. Otherwise you're just messing around.
Are we too easily bluffed by a bit of mystification? Why does ASMR matter so much, if you only compare consecutive years of 1 country. Then the accrual differs at most a few tenths of a percent per year, and that is completely irrelevant for this story.
New Zealand's ASMR graph
OK - I threw in the age-stratified source data.
- Population data Summary-figures-for-the-NZ-population-1991-2023.xlsx (2024 I estimated myself based on this and some other sources)
- Age-stratified population data
- The mortality data are also there, age-stratified to 2021. The 2022 and 2023 totals are already there, though, and the 2024 total is pretty much there as well. So based on those totals and the trends by age cohort, there is an estimated age structure as of 2022, in line with previous trends. That is this file.
Now I am willing to assume that ASMR, with which you give all countries the same population structure, is 'more accurate' or something, in a scientific sense. If you want to compare the population mortality of 30 years ago with that of today, you obviously have to look very carefully at the population structure and size. If you compare countries with each other, it is even necessary to also look at ASMR. 'Also', I say emphatically, not 'just'.
If you do that, it turns out that New Zealand is simply an exceptionally healthy country with excellent health care, a younger population (on average 5 years younger than NL), possibly a cleaner environment, more sports, less densely populated, better weather, you name it. And that healthy country has suddenly become a lot unhealthier post-vaccination. But then you shouldn't just look at the ASMR standard in a given year. Then you have to look at the past.
The ASMR graph resembles the 'crude' per 100K graph somewhat, but twisted a bit and the scale is different, the numbers are of course different, after all, it is not the population of New Zealand that we are looking at. The enormous growth of the older cohorts (70+) in particular has therefore not been included in this fictitious population. Hover your mouse over the graph to zoom in on the last 15 years.
If we do not take a fictitious population structure but the real one, it looks like the graph below. The growth of people over 60 increases mortality per 100K. That contributes to excess mortality, at least if you don't ASMR it away.
So there was not much wrong with those 100K graphs on Twitter. If you compare 2021-2023 with the 750K baseline proposed by the WHO (gray line), you can indeed say: In New Zealand, we do not see excess mortality. But then you don't mention that New Zealand has had a huge undermortality rate for 25 years with this baseline, around -10%. They lost that health in one fell swoop in 2022.
The excess mortality rates relative to the trend line after 2021 suddenly become 4 times higher than in the past 25 years...!? Ten per cent above the NZ baseline! Make it 8 per cent if need be if you accept the curling up baseline. Not seen in decades and now 3 years in a row.
If you call that 'undermortality', are you mistaken or are you lying?
Why?
A graphing machine like @dobssi concerned with 'the corona period' and not specifically interested in any effect of vaccines, you sure can think something of that. But the fact that Prof. Dr. Pieter Trapman, University of Groningen refers me to him: "look this is how you do it"... I just don't get it.
And Prof. Dr. Ruben van Gaalen mouthpiece of CBS 1Numerical Confirmation of State Lies, or Maarten Keulemans, our science crack of quality medium De Volkskrant... The fact that they cite New Zealand as a shining example of vaccine safety; they should have punctured this a long time ago, shouldn't they?
Do they really think they can get away with these excuses in the long run? Or are they just really bad at their jobs?
I really wonder what's going on in the media and in science – and why.
References
- 1Numerical Confirmation of State Lies
It remains silent (still) on these questions. I think there are many reasons and in my opinion all irresponsible. We will be even more surprised when "answers" go and/or will come. As a child I lived in a sect and from a very young age I resisted the bizarre rules and dress codes. Despite the heavy punishments, I remained in resistance. Years later, apologies would come and I went to the conversation full of hope. "Sorry you had to wear those itchy clothes, but we didn't know it bothered you." Nothing else, not even when they broke away from the sect themselves. I expect something like that on a global scale now but keep hope for more! Thank you for continuing to ask these questions and all the work!
I have forwarded this to X. The penny has to drop that mRNA and Vector technology is dangerous.
Ward, do you understand that statisticians throw that ASMR argument into the fray? Then you expose yourself as either a liar or a charlatan, don't you?
It's ridiculous. Surely they must realize that if there are extremes in mortality per age that you don't see them with ASMR?
This is all going to come true. Time is only in favor of the charlatans and snake oil sellers. That is actually hard to swallow.
Nice to see that you don't focus on one method Anton! I tried to teach you this a year ago..... 😀
It is the combination of several methods, which provides a good insight.
ASMR is really not the holy grail. It is a tool to 'easily' compare several countries.
But for real analytics, you need to drill down.
For example, the mortality rate of Sweden is mainly so favorable (ASMR method) because ten years ago they had a remarkably high mortality in the 30-50 year olds. This has now dropped back to normal values, while higher mortality can now be seen among 60+.
This results in a 'flat' line across the board.
Certainly, I will also keep an eye on both you and Hans Verwaart. I can best defend Herman's own approach as you know.
I have never seen ASMR as the holy grail, but I have always respectfully taken a step back when statistical experts started waving it. I thought that was enough for a while. The New Zealand ASMR was the last straw the provaxxers had left, that's why. The fallacies are now really gone.
The problem is also that it is not over. I just read that in Alberta, Canada, babies are injected with a flu/Covid shot. At least 1 has already died. At John Campbell that there are now tests with mRNA-based RSV injections. Trials on children up to 2 years of age. Cancelled because there were too many side effects. And we are the crazies?
Facilities are being built at various locations around the world to make mRNA products on a large scale (Canada, UK, Australia).
Your last sentence seems like a kind of cry of despair. I recognize it.
Great analysis, thank you!
I searched for the discussion on Twitter/X but strangely enough couldn't find it. Can you post a link to the discussion there?
https://x.com/PieterTrapman/status/1867596758160749029
Also hidden under that big graph of dobbsi.
One of the regulars here invariably leaves a "Not OK" thumbs down. Sometimes I can understand that too. But I would like to hear what is wrong with this article. I'm not saying anything strange, I'm not speculating here, am I?
I, as a layman, immediately thought, yes but what was the mortality per 100K in NZ for 2020? The ASMR standard is useful for comparing mortality between countries at a certain point in time, but otherwise it says nothing about the course of mortality over time. What does the same graph look like from 2017-2019, for example? New Zealand has even higher undermortality as you have already shown of course, but other (high vaccination rate) countries?
And if 2020 had not been included, New Zealand would not have undermortality I suspect.
"I really wonder what's going on in the media and in science – and why. "
The White Coats Faith?
My own working definition of a "faith" (as a casual religious scholar) is "predatory ingroup" here.
The ingroup members get a bigger share of the cake than the outgroup, which is why they constantly drive each other to the middle of the school: Less risk, more cake.
By the way, the bird flu outbreaks are now breaking out, just in time for Trump 2. What a coincidence.
It's amazing how since the CRISPR research that is supposed to keep us 'safe' against unexpected zoonoses, new diseases keep breaking out – for which fortunately there are already patented drugs.
My own conspiracy rule of thumb? The profit machine comes in 2 flavors: war and disease. When vested interests are in power, it is up to the war industry. As pesky populists, then a new disease. Time for some Pfizer blood money shares. (not with me)
Great piece of work, Anton! At the ASMR for dummies, I immediately got the feeling: "But you can't tar all countries with the same brush, can you?!" Population structure is one thing, but living habits and conditions and health care are at least as decisive. That is why your perseverance on this point is very important and enlightening. Thank you for that.