Scenarios and news

Looking at the increase in sudden deaths, ambulance rides and crowds in the funeral industry, in combination with low hospital/ICU occupancy, zou je van CBS niet de conclusie verwachten: "De belangrijkste oorzaken: griep en corona". Temeer daar de PCR-testen aangeven dat er vrijwel geen corona meer gevonden wordt. De rioolmetingen hebben geen voorspellende waarde meer.

Het nieuws van vanochtend was in elk geval: "De sterfte was volgens CBS toch 170.000(!) en niet de eerder geschatte 155.000." Door corona en griep, volgens het CBS...

As we know, the average age of Covid deaths is around life expectancy. It is therefore not surprising that our attention is constantly focused on this: in that age group, especially those over 80 years of age, the vast majority of deaths occur, either 'with' or 'because of' corona or neither. The same applies to flu in the elderly.

But what do we see in 2022: 7% excess mortality at 50-65 years. (In 2021 even ten percent!). And also in 2022: 13% excess mortality in the age group under 50 years! This is particularly alarming. THIRTEEN percent!? These are not the age groups in which the typical flu or corona deaths can be found.

So: more than 1 in 8 of all deceased under the age of 50 would have been alive under normal circumstances.

50-65 years: 1 in every 13 deaths should not have occurred.

All this could possibly have been prevented - if the cause had been found and addressed in time. No search was made.

(Needless to say, it's about percentages of ALL deaths in those age groups, not just corona mortality.)

Numbers then? Let's do the math...

A total of 21,927 65-year-olds died in 2022 (CBS). Based on historical figures (CBS) is about one-third (7,236) of these 0-50 years and two-thirds (14,472) 50-65 years.

7,236 including 13% excess mortality. That's 6,404 + 832 excess mortality
14,472 including 7.2% excess mortality = 13,500 + 972 excess mortality. 832 + 972 = 1804.

The absolute aboutmortality among people under 65 will therefore, only for 2022, amount to approx. 1,800 Dutch in the age groups that have little or nothing to fear from flu and/or Omikron. 1,800 might not sound like much? They are people under 65. These are, for example, 100 amateur football teams with their reserves, coaches and some supporters (some children, for example). One hundred. Imagine that. If one of those football teams falls from the sky with a Boeing, the country will be turned upside down and we will be in mourning. Now no one notices two planes a week, except the relatives who do not realize that they are part of a national disaster. Or rather: an international disaster. I can see a day of remembrance for the CTB dead one day, although they will call it something different.

The graph also shows how long people have been refusing to release data for independent research. We still understood the 2020 figures, but the first question marks arose in the summer of 2021. It won't be long before two years of persistent unexplained mortality will be ignored, meaning that people may continue to die unnecessarily - because the cause is unknown. Families are destroyed, children lose their parents, uncles, aunts. Don't start calculating in QALYs, it will make you sad.

So those were the 65-miners, with the shortest bars...

In any case, it is certain that the total numbers are in the many, many thousands. The above only concerns the 'younger' age groups for a period of only 1 year (2022). What will it look like if we include the truly vulnerable, people who fall over on the cheap and then also consider the entire crisis period, from summer 2021 to summer 2023? Persistent excess mortality has been on an increasing trend since mid-2021; We are heading for an unprecedented period of two years of uninterrupted excess mortality.

Als het CBS schrijft "In the first three months of 2022, there was no excess mortality" klinkt dat net zo onzinnig als het ten tijde van een oorlog berichten: "Vannacht was er geen oorlog". Om die onzinnigheid te zien hoef je maar een klein beetje verder uit te zoomen.

Statistics Netherlands also reports that there was excess mortality in the third quarter of 2022. That reminds me of a fire chief who reports a broken window after a building has burned out. It may be true, but it is not an adequate description.

And now? Coffee grounds watching.

Disagreement on the editorial board: statistical advisor Herman Steigstra does not foresee under-mortality and sees no reason to believe that daily excess mortality will be lower than before the flu wave: approximately 50 deaths per day. The polka dot line is therefore extended from the current point.

The virus varia editors do not consider that to be realistic. There will certainly be some under-mortality, after all, it was the flu that we suspect caused the whole bump. Then there is always some under-mortality.

After that, it becomes uncertain. I, as the virusvaria editor-in-chief, do not expect the structural excess mortality to suddenly disappear. Most likely, we will at least get above the red line of 2021. Even if we fall back to a slight unexplained excess mortality that we hope will wear off further and further. It may be against my better judgment, but then I hope we might go to 15/day Sinks, or is that too optimistic? It's still awful, because what's the reason?

And if it is indeed mainly because I fear it is coming, then it has been stopped, so will the undesirable effects decrease somewhat? And surely it won't get worse in the long run? We'll see 😉

We raadpleegden Prof. Dr. Akkermans van het Eucalyptisch Genootschap Sub Rosa: "Kan, kan. Kijk, het hangt allemaal af van de veronderstelde oorzaak. Zou je denken aan uitsluiten psychische verstoringen, dan verwacht ik dat de oversterfte er sneller uitgroeit. Misschien hebben we dan de top al gehad. Hoe lang het nazeurt kan niemand vertellen, het is nog te kort en we weten helemaal niets van de effecten van alles wat er over de bevolking is uitgerold. Psychologische manipulatie, injecties,... Blanco zijn we, geen idee. Is het genetisch? Dan kunnen carcinogene factoren een rol spelen, waardoor het daggemiddelde verder gaat oplopen. Tot hoe hoog? Joost mag het weten; er is nooit onderzoek gedaan daarover. Er wordt wel schertsenderwijs gezegd "de proefdieren gingen dood"maar in welke hoeveelheden op welke termijn weten we niet. Als je denkt in een schaalgrootte van acht muizen is dat wat magertjes. "Is het injectabel? Ja? Mooii, dan kan het de markt op. Haal die muizen maar door de shredder." Dat idee. Dan zou de curve pas gaan dalen als alle aangedane personen er niet meer zijn. Hoeveel zijn er dat. Weten we niet, er wordt geen prospectief onderzoek gedaan naar bijvoorbeeld de aanwezigheid van mRNA of spikes. En, voordat u ophangt: Er is ook sprake van mRNA-belaste baby's die het van hun moeder hebben doorgekregen. Virus- of vaccin-gerelateerd, dat hangt af van de onderzoekende partij. Dus al zijn dat er maar weinig (4%, denken we), we zijn er nog niet vanaf!"

I admit, it is not rational, but I actually do not want to assume that the excess mortality of 2023 in this seasonal graph will be higher than 2022, as Herman argues. And his predictions were always awfully close to the truth... I can't rule it out, but I just can't believe that our health institutions just let such a tragedy happen, that our institutions and governments actually created such a disaster, knowingly and consciously. Because I happened to be very early with my 'summer deaths', but at the end of 2021 there was no excuse for anyone, unless incompetence or disinterest is an excuse. This applies to anyone with pretensions: talk show guests, journalists and everything that has to do with policy.

Snack: typical Google weather. Left misspelled, right correct. Then Google understands better what they have to show from the government. See also a previous post on manipulating the suggestions.