At Virusvaria we also keep an eye on foreign countries. Bulgaria has been mentioned repeatedly, Australia has already come several times emphatically over. What is the current situation, how does Dutch compare with those two extremes? Herman Steigstra also has experience with Bulgaria and Australia and reports on the standings. (Of course also available at steig.nl.
Five years after the outbreak of the corona epidemic, it is interesting to compare a number of countries that have attempted to combat the epidemic in completely different ways. In this article we will compare the Netherlands with Australia and Bulgaria. Both countries were discredited. Bulgaria because it had a very low willingness to vaccinate and Australia because it had a very strict corona policy. Which country was the most successful in combating it and thus emerged as the “winner”?
Netherlands
Let's first look at the Dutch figures, without going into too much detail. We can show the accumulated excess mortality for each year and try to recognize patterns in it. These are the Dutch figures:
The black line is the accumulated excess mortality in 2020. An S-shaped curve that is typical of a seasonal epidemic. This reaches its peak in week 18, after which a number of months of under-mortality causes a decline during the summer. From week 40 onwards we had the second wave and excess mortality continued to build up again. In order to be able to compare properly with other countries, the accumulated excess mortality is calculated per 100,000 inhabitants. By the end of 2020, this had grown to 65 per 100,000 inhabitants.
We see a much more erratic development in the following years, but the total accumulated excess mortality is always above 50/100,000. In the first year of vaccination even 75/100,000. We may conclude that vaccination has not been able to prevent this death. The total excess mortality up to and including 2023 was 251/100,000.
But how did the other countries do this? We use the figures from OWID, which will be available until the end of 2023.
Australia
Australia was characterized by a very strict policy: Zero-Covid. Strict border closures, mandatory quarantine and lockdowns. Face masks were mandatory. Perhaps thanks to these measures, there was virtually no corona until they were relaxed in September 2021. We see that in this graph:
In 2020 (black) there was indeed no excess mortality, even some undermortality, because other viruses did not stand a chance. And yet, from 2021 (the red line), we have already seen excess mortality increase, long before the measures were relaxed. From September 2021, corona will also contribute to the excess mortality and Australia will have a comparable excess mortality in 2021 as the Netherlands.
In their summer of 2022 (January-April), excess mortality increased extremely quickly. By the end of 2022, excess mortality will have risen to above 130/100,000, double what we saw in the Netherlands. A sum of corona and what was officially “unexplained”. This unexplained excess mortality started in March 2021, six months before corona got its chance and vaccinations had started. But officially that is still “unexplained”.
In 2023, excess mortality was virtually the same as in the Netherlands. There too only “unexplained excess mortality”. Calculated over 4 years, the total excess mortality was 239/100,000, virtually the same as in the Netherlands, despite the very strict policy in Australia and the enormous vaccination pressure.
Bulgaria
The mortality in Bulgaria in 2021 was long cited by the pharmaceutical industry as proof that vaccination was doing its job in the countries that were repeatedly vaccinated. After all, Bulgaria was by far the worst in the class, with a vaccination rate of barely 20%. These are their numbers:
Bulgaria had declared a state of emergency and the catering industry and schools were closed. Quarantine for incoming travelers there too. The first thing to notice is that in 2020, excess mortality due to corona only started in the autumn. However, healthcare there is at a much lower level than in Western countries, which ultimately caused corona to spread violently. The result was a huge increase in excess mortality in 2021 to as much as 330/100,000.
From the spring of 2022, corona disappeared (the Omikron variant replaced the Delta variant) and the accumulated excess mortality stagnated around 100/100,000.
From 2023 onwards we will see that Bulgaria will be the only country in Europe to have under-mortality. While other countries still struggle with persistent excess mortality of around 50/100,000, Bulgaria actually has an under-mortality of 50/100,000. The total excess mortality over these four years was 515/100,000. So double compared to the Netherlands and Australia. On the other hand, there is now under-mortality in Bulgaria.
OWID
On OWID we can also find these numbers. In this graph we see the summary.
Total excess mortality percentage since 2020
Australia has been overtaking the Netherlands since the end of their zero-covid (September 2021) and mortality in Bulgaria is actually decreasing significantly. At this rate, Bulgaria will now have a lower mortality than the Netherlands.
Conclusions
We see in two of the three countries described that there appears to be an effect of strict measures. However, it is nothing more than a postponement. There was hardly any corona in both Bulgaria and Australia in 2020. But from 2021 onwards, corona will still strike. In Australia we see no difference in total mortality from corona compared to the Netherlands: healthcare there is on an equal footing with that in the Netherlands. Bulgaria has been hit hard in 2021 and this seems to be due to a much poorer health system. We already saw this emerge at the end of 2020. On the other hand, Bulgaria is now experiencing structural under-mortality.
These figures do not contain any indication that vaccination has made a beneficial contribution to our health. The winner from this comparison really seems to be Bulgaria, despite the high price they had to pay in corona deaths in 2021. Bear in mind that mortality from corona is almost always associated with old age and underlying suffering, while unexplained excess mortality also affects the healthy and younger age groups.
How does the Covid mortality in Bulgaria at the end of 2020 compare to a year with a lot of flu?
And has there been a lot of vaccinations in Bulgaria in 2021? After all, the latter also happened in Sweden, even though there were hardly any measures there and there was less pressure to vaccinate. There was enough fear among the people.
The mortality is clear, thanks for that, now everyone has to see IT. The conclusions about health care in the various countries do not seem to me to be substantiated by reality. It was the WHO guidelines that were implemented almost worldwide, primary care was thrown overboard, pulmonary embolisms were not treated and even denied, etc. Today, the good doctors are in court and are even convicted for properly treating people with corona. I don't know exactly how that happened in Bulgaria. One must also always take into account other circumstances such as smoking and drinking alcohol, poverty, etc. In Australia they were even more off track than in the Netherlands. What caused people to die during the corona period is also very unclear and today the completed forms are incorrect...
Without really good independent research that Wybren van Haga, for example, continues to tirelessly ask for, it is clear. The measures have worked because they are?
So a binding agreement is now being put together through the WHO whereby as a country you must follow what the WHO dictates if another virus comes along.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7WyJE4FyzM
In passing, Wybren also discusses the way in which Mrs. Arib was jilted.
It is clear to me that there are winners, such as Bill Gates.
But ordinary citizens are in serious trouble wherever they live.
Sorry. I'm really sorry for replying off topic.
To my great sadness, I have not read this article or the previous one. While I am a fan of your critical articles! The moving icons on the right making letters unreadable, taking my focus away, moving all the time, right in the reading area, making it impossible for me. I understand the need to share, but is there no other way? Do you need a continuously present banner at the top or bottom?
I'm going to change it!!! Sorry!
The total mortality is the area (integral) under the graphs. I cannot escape the impression that it will take many more years before mortality in Bulgaria is at the same level as that in the Netherlands and Australia. Then isn't this more proof that Bulgaria's policy (or rather practice) was not that good at all? Unless the 2024 and 2025 graphs [which are preliminary] will look very different.
Or am I seeing it wrong?
The article also contains a cumulative graph. Anton has visually added trend lines. These will be cut at the beginning of 2025. That would mean that Bulgaria is better off from now on.