"Not wanting to be vaccinated goes against all common sense." A fact check.

Ze maken me wat paraat, die academische intelligentsia. "You can say what you want about those vaccines, but they've done a lot of good!" hoorde ik dit weekend van een niet nader te noemen Prof. Dr. in de geneeskunde. Een mooi haakje om de laatste analyses van Hans Verwaart aan op te hangen.

However, writing this post, I saw Jan Bonte on Twitter railing against Femke Nijboer. Well, not only against Femke Nijboer, but yesterday it was her turn. The reason was this column in which she not only asked for hate mail at the end of 2021 (there so Jan still complied with) but in which she also says about critical students:

"Het vaccin zou onvoldoende getest zijn. Als je pot-ver-drie een wetenschappelijke studie wilt gaan doen, maar je gelooft niet in de wetenschap, wat doe je hier [op de universiteit] dan überhaupt? [...] Geen vaccinatie willen druist in tegen elk gezond verstand."

Femke Nijboer

A firmer hook than a personal experience. So that became the title.

What the vaccines have indeed done well can be seen from the first of these Q-graphs by Hans Verwaart. But then you have to look at the other one as well.

A Q-graph works as follows: Two groups are compared, in this case they are Covid deaths of vaccinated people with unvaccinated people. For example, if 4% of the vaccinated have died and 5% of the unvaccinated, the Q is: 4/5 = 0.80. If the percentages are the same, the Q is equal to 1. Below 1 means that relatively fewer vaccinated people have died. Above 1, on the other hand, more vaccinated people have died.

Covid mortality: the vaccines reduced the risk

First the Covid deaths, according to the official figures from UK. All values are below 1: vaccinated people were less at risk of Covid mortality than unvaccinated people.

Unfortunately, we see that this advantage decreases sharply over time. The small advantage of the end of 2022 was very little in absolute terms with the low Omikron mortality.

Those who accept this graph can also see a lot from the following graph. According to the same method, it is shown here how the vaccinated fared in other causes of death, i.e. all deaths except those from Covid.

Mortality from anything other than Covid: the vaccines increased the risk

After June 2021, the values are only above 1, and rising. You could see a stabilization or a slight decline from May 2022. The wish here is perhaps the father of the thought because the Q remains clearly above one for the time being.

Mortality overall: the vaccines increased the risk (and that's not over yet)

All things considered: the ACM, All Cause Mortality of vaccinated people compared to that of the unvaccinated. Rising from May 2021 to May 2022, then more or less stable.

If the vaccination rates are still adjusted, remember that the line as a whole can shift slightly up or down. However, the upward trend will continue.

Ultimately

Based on the data analysed, around 63,000 deaths from Covid-19 have been prevented in the UK. If it had been 100% vaccinated, there would have been more than 68,000.

However, since April 2021, there have been approximately 165,000 more non-covid deaths than expected if no one had been vaccinated.

Thus, makes a negative balance of more than 100,000.

Voor de kleinere Nederlandse bevolking moeten alle aantallen door 3,78 worden gedeeld. Vanwege onze lagere vaccinatiegraad moet daar zeker nog eens 10% vanaf. Dan worden die 100.000 er zo'n 24.000. Dat zijn er aanzienlijk meer dan er overlijdens door CBS als "covid" zijn gelabeld. Ook als de vaccinatiepercentages in Engeland nog enigszins worden gecorrigeerd. Of er moet werkelijk geen bal van kloppen, dat is dan weer een nieuw probleem.

Dit nog zonder naar QALY's om te rekenen. De gemiddelde leeftijd van covid-overlijdens zal hoger zijn dan non-covid. Het aantal verloren levensjaren kan zó een aantal keer over de kop. Uitrekenen gaat niet omdat de data worden achtergehouden door de beleidsmakers.

Final Verdict

Virusvaria beoordeelt de uitspraak van Femke Nijboer "Geen vaccinatie willen druist in tegen elk gezond verstand." als FALSE AND UNSCIENTIFIC. Because of the social implications, we add the predicate there DANGEROUS to.

Virusvaria beoordeelt de uitspraak "Je kunt zeggen van die vaccins wat je wil maar ze hebben wel een hoop goed gedaan!" als FALSE AND UNSCIENTIFIC. Such a conclusion deserves a thorough consideration between advantages and disadvantages.

In the academic world, people apparently only listen to what they say to each other and consider it to be scientific because of an academic level. This is how trust degenerates into credulity. One believes.

By age group

De Prof. Dr. legde mij overigens ook uit dat SARS-COV-2 hetzelfde virus is als SARS. Dat klopt natuurlijk ook niet, ze zijn voor 80% hetzelfde zoals zoveel coronavirussen maar ze verschillen op belangrijke punten. Daarbij: spraken virologen niet altijd over een 'novel' virus waar ze nog niets van wisten...? Waarom zouden ze hebben voorgewend dat ze het virus helemaal niet kenden?