The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) determines policy on the basis of incomplete knowledge and keeps the door closed to specialist knowledge that external experts could use to supplement their ignorance. This is evident from the concerned words of KNMI Research Scientist Jos de Laat in conversation with Ad Verbrugge. Wrong assumptions are not corrected and that has enormous consequences. Aerosolists have seen this happening for a year, but it now appears that even a fellow National Knowledge Institute does not get a foothold at the rivm. The KNMI has been trying to talk to its colleagues from the rivm for a year – in vain and now rings the (emergency) bell.
[edit: see also this later article on rivm's violation of scientific integrity]
The standard model used in virology and epidemiology is based on assumptions that are simply not physically correct.
Jos de Laat, KNMI researcher on research results
The biggest concern, also according to KNMI member Jos de Laat, is that science is violated in this way. There can be no open debate. It has been clear for more than a year that the tunnel vision of rivm and omt should not be questioned in any way. The media positions itself as a front that has to keep the knowledge within that tube, so even from below there is in any case no pressure possible that could improve the situation.
The KNMI vision offers no further news: it corresponds to what Professor Jimenez also told about the WHO in April last year: the virologists simply cannot handle the scientific conversation, but aerosols are crucial in the spread of respiratory diseases.
KNMI: it's the aerosols
Knmi researchers have traditionally been experts in the field of atmospheric domains such as temperature and humidity. Aerosols are also a natural and essential part of this (think of particulate matter and allergy reports). The KNMI endorses that the behaviour of aerosols is determined by temperature and humidity, a link with infections that Maurice de Hond made very early on. He also receives these credits explicitly from Jos de Laat. The knmi knowledge institute therefore knows, in contrast to the rivm, to value its efforts.
The rivm - as is confirmed again in this conversation - simply has no idea about the physics of air particles and how they can act as virus carriers. As well as Prof. Jimenez at the WHO observede when among his interlocutors there appeared to be not one expert with knowledge of aerosols. "Is also not necessary, is not accepted", professor Voss of the omt would say.
In fact, everything we see happening fits within the image that it is the aerosols that play a crucial role in the spread of respiratory diseases.
Jos de Laat, KNMI researcher on research results
I try to summarize the main message of the video in the box below, for the "I only read" people. The conversation itself lasts 52 minutes.
Paraphrased the real problem
"We try to evaluate existing knowledge as broadly as possible for each research theme: what is relevant to know? Who should we bring in? I don't know why that doesn't happen at rivm. Aerosol research is a totally different field than virology, we are hard betas. We just can't talk to rivm about it with regard to mistakes they make in our field.
It is a dynamic that you mainly see in subjects that are close to politics and concrete policy. The scientific interest then goes into the background. That doesn't create a pretty picture of science. Science doesn't work that way.
The Academy's guidelines on scientific integrity indicate that scientific institutes have a duty to create an environment in which people can present their points and express criticism without regard for the person. The way I'm sitting here now, can I actually do that? Am I not going to stand on toes? But it is important: I still see a scientific community that is unable to meet that integrity requirement. It is not for nothing that we record this in documents.
We want to present our knowledge and talk about it to take steps – and that just doesn't work."
If hard, indisputable, scientifically thoroughly substantiated factual knowledge is already non-negotiable in that community, what about evaluation of research results that are at the core of medical science: vaccines, for example? How selective is one there with accepting knowledge, integrating criticism, exercising control, interpreting research?
Jaap van Dissel will receive the "Academy Medal" of the KNAW. "Van Dissel will receive the prize for the way in which he scientifically advised the Minister of Health, Welfare and Sport and the government crisis team on the fight against COVID-19 during the corona epidemic." What a wasp's nest, difficult though... The Academy may have dug in too deeply to be able to go back. It would be understandable if they would postpone the award ceremony until a good sort of research has been done.
It's worse than feared
If a National Knowledge Institute does not find its way into another National Knowledge Institute, then I cannot understand that this situation will be tolerated any longer, nor by the House of Representatives (which should have intervened a long time ago), nor by the Media – which have allowed themselves to be used in a reprehensible way.
Verbrugge and de Laat also speculate briefly about the possible reasons for the fearful reluctance at the rivm, which is highly unscientific behavior. I will not contribute to that because before I know it I will be pushed into the conspiracy corner. Valid, sensible reasons are hard to come up with. So I'm just sticking to an unprecedented incompetence and improbable obstinacy – without suggesting punitive measures. If you are so unaccountable, you can get away with everything. At least with the right judge, but that may be arranged. That's how bad it is now thanks to the excuse of necessity.
I can already hear the objections:
- "Rivm has always paid attention to ventilation!"
- "The predictions of KNMI are indeed not much more reliable than those of Maurice de Hond, hahaha"
- "You see, distance is indeed important."
Etcetera. And if that doesn't have the desired effect – then come the ad hominems:
- "Does such a weatherman think that he suddenly knows everything?"
- "Does the gentleman have a medical background?"
- "He took 9 years to complete his studies, so he is not that light"
Etc. etc. Here's the video:
References in the conversation with Jos de Laat (can be found on YouTube under "SHOW MORE").
- interview kimberly prather in EOS (newspaper of the American Geophyiscal Union, one of the largest publishers in my field). [31 March 2021] – https://eos.org/articles/aerosol-scientists-try-to-clear-the-air-about-covid-19-transmission...
- Frequently Asked Questions on COVID aerosol transmission (referred to in the EOS article) – https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fB5pysccOHvxphpTmCG_TGdytavMmc1cUumn8m0pwzo/edit
- Wikipedia and Univ. San Diego (SCRIPPS) web pages Kimberly Prather –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimberly_Prather
https://kprather.scrippsprofiles.ucsd.edu/ - Article The Lancet "Ten scientific reasons in support of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2" [1 May 2021] –
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2821%2900869-2/fulltext - Article Science "Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2" [16 October 2020] – https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6514/303.2
- News item Nature "CORONAVIRUS IN THE AIR" [23 July 2020] – https://media.nature.com/original/magazine-assets/d41586-020-02058-1/d41586-020-02058-1.pdf