• Excess mortality
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HvE for dummies

by Anton TheunissenandHerman Steigstra | 9 Nov 2024, 10:11

← A statistical fallacy: unvaccinated excess mortality in Italy and at Nivel A Midwestern Doctor: It's Time for COVID Accountability So This Can Never Happen Again →
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In the Virusvaria series '... for Dummies' 'HVE for dummies' should of course not be missed. My short 144-letter explanation on X seemed sufficient to me to understand the phenomenon. But Herman is not so easy with that and built an article with a surprising practical case at the end.

No: HVE effect means (ih briefly) that
a) sick people are less likely to be vaccinated, which means that vaccinated people are by definition healthier on average with lower mortality rates, and
b) that people who are nearing the end of their lives do not vaccinate and therefore die unvaccinated.

— Anton Theunissen (@Anton_Th) November 7, 2024

If you understand my concise X-description, it is still worth reading Herman's article. He doesn't just explain the phenomenon step by step using simple calculations with easy example figures.

It only gets really interesting when he then tests it against 'real world data' from Italy. What do you think? Unbelievable Mike: it's exactly right!

This strengthens the underpinning of the previous post in which I suggested that Nivel has turned the HVE to vaccine safety. Actually, that's a fact now. So where is that security now?

Below is Herman's full post, taken live from his new site steig.nl

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Related reading pleasure:
Another HVE study, this time by the UMC More Nivel worries A statistical fallacy: unvaccinated excess mortality in Italy and at Nivel
13 Comments
  1. jan van ruth
    jan van ruth the 09/11/2024 at 12:36

    And now with real figures from England : https://jdee.substack.com/p/primary-clinical-outcomes-for-a-single-90d?utm_campaign=email-post&r=ug3ao&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

    2
    Answer
    • Anton Theunissen
      Anton Theunissen the 09 / 11 / 2024 to the 12: 59

      Ja dank! Ik ben daar mee bezig dankzij de vorige link die je stuurde. Kijken of ik er iets van kan maken.

      1
      Answer
  2. Lou
    Lou op 09/11/2024 om 12:56

    Zoals ik het nu begrijp als leek:

    1 Miljoen mensen Verw. sterfte In Procenten
    1,000,000 2,500 0.25%

    Zonder HVE effect Verw.Sterfte
    Gevaccineerd 90% 900,000 2,250 0.25%
    Ongevaccineerd 10% 100,000 250 0.25%
    1,000,000 2,500 0.25%

    Veroorzaakt door HVE effect (Ernstig Zieken NIET gevaccineerd, Gezonde WEL i.v.m. vrijheid)

    Gevaccineerd 90% 898,750 997 0.11% =0.4×0.25% = 0.4 x 0.25%
    Ongevaccineerd 10% 101,250 1,503 1.48% =5.9×0.25% = 6 x 0.25%
    1,000,000 2,500 0.25%
    (Ongevaccineerd lijkt nu 10x zoveel overlijdens, 1.48% tegen 0.11%, te hebben door de ernstig zieken)

    Statistische correctie? De 1250 overlijdens van ongevaccineerden bij gevaccineerden tellen?
    Gevaccineerd 90% 900,000 2,500 0.278%
    Ongevaccineerd 10% 100,000 250 0.25%
    1,000,000 2,500 0.25%

    This then gives a kind of unpolluted 0 position?
    (Doesn't apply to a vaccination rate of e.g. 50% in my opinion)

    So the seriously ill who have died should be counted among the vaccinated anyway,
    Simply because they would have been vaccinated in a healthy state given the politics.

    Then you are going to add the non-seriously ill Covid deaths to the vaccinated and unvaccinated?

    Or would it not be better to exclude all seriously ill people?

    1
    Answer
    • Anton Theunissen
      Anton Theunissen the 09/11/2024 at 13:04

      "So we have to count the seriously ill who have died among the vaccinated anyway, simply because they would have been vaccinated in a healthy state given politics." That's a strong one indeed.
      Exclusion is another possibility. According to Nivel, mortality will then be HIGHER! See the last post by Maurice. It's a mess.

      1
      Answer
      • Pyotr
        Pyotr the 12 / 11 / 2024 to the 13: 24

        I proposed more than three years ago as a compromise that this exclusion would therefore lead to a more credible calculation of the 'vaccine' effectiveness. I then offered an article about this to the Volkskrant, among others. Three minutes later I was told that they were not going to post it.

        P.S. Also (younger) people who take/use certain drugs (chemo) against cancer in particular were not vaccinated or were vaccinated much later (if they were still alive)
        They also have a greater chance of dying unvaccinated.

        Answer
  3. Lou
    Lou the 09/11/2024 at 13:01

    I had made a nice overview in Excel and I had made the same visual with spaces in my comment, but all spaces have been removed and it becomes a mess. Unfortunately I couldn't post a picture with my presentation. I find math in online text very difficult and in states it comes across much better visually to me. If you want, I can email it to you.

    1
    Answer
    • Anton Theunissen
      Anton Theunissen the 09/11/2024 at 13:07

      yes go ahead. You can also include the HTML in the comment, if you know how HTML works. See, for example, https://tableconvert.com/excel-to-html

      Answer
      • Lou
        Lou the 09/11/2024 at 14:28

        here's an HTML attempt 🙂

        Statistical Analysis of Mortality Rates

        table {
        width: 100%;
        border-collapse: collapse;
        font-family: Arial, sans-serif;
        }
        th, td {
        border: 1px solid #ddd;
        padding: 8px;
        text-align: center;
        }
        th {
        background-color: #f2f2f2;
        font-weight: bold;
        }
        .subtitle {
        background-color: #e8e8e8;
        font-weight: bold;
        text-align: left;
        padding-left: 8px;
        }
        .note {
        font-size: 0.9em;
        color: #555;
        padding-top: 8px;
        }

        Statistical Analysis of Mortality Rates

        1 Million People
        Expected mortality
        In percentages

        1,000,000
        2,500
        0.25%

        Without HVE effect

        Group
        Population
        Expected mortality
        In percentages

        Vaccinated 90%
        900,000
        2,250
        0.25%

        Unvaccinated 10%
        100,000
        250
        0.25%

        Total
        1,000,000
        2,500
        0.25%

        Veroorzaakt door HVE effect (Ernstig Zieken NIET gevaccineerd, Gezonde WEL i.v.m. vrijheid)

        Group
        Population
        Expected mortality
        In percentages
        Computation

        Vaccinated 90%
        898,750
        997
        0.11%
        0.4% = 0.4 x 0.25%

        Unvaccinated 10%
        101,250
        1,503
        1.48%
        5.9% = 6 x 0.25%

        Total
        1,000,000
        2,500
        0.25%

        Statistische correctie? De 1250 overlijdens van ongevaccineerden bij gevaccineerden tellen?

        Group
        Population
        Adjusted mortality
        In percentages

        Vaccinated 90%
        900,000
        2,500
        0.278%

        Unvaccinated 10%
        100,000
        250
        0.25%

        Total
        1,000,000
        2,500
        0.25%

        So the seriously ill who have died should be counted among the vaccinated anyway,
        Simply because they would have been vaccinated in a healthy state given the politics.

        Then you are going to count the non-seriously ill Covid deaths among the vaccinated and unvaccinated?

        Answer
  4. Cees Mul
    Cees Mul the 09/11/2024 at 13:25

    I am still missing an important factor that seems to have disappeared in the violence. Or maybe it's been repaired in the meantime. The 'vaccinated' status was only granted weeks after (usually the second) vaccination in all countries involved. Everyone who died within a few weeks after vaccination was therefore unvaccinated. Norman Fenton said that this is how you can make the biggest poison appear effective.
    This was already clear in 2021 in the statistics of ONS (which at the time provided more insight than the Dutch authorities). It was just in there.
    It seems to me that this factor makes the HVE pale in comparison.

    2
    Answer
    • Anton Theunissen
      Anton Theunissen the 09/11/2024 at 13:27

      These studies, with those Kaplan-Meier graphs, are really from the puncture date.

      2
      Answer
      • Willem
        Willem the 10/11/2024 at 09:00

        The explanation can be found in the Meester/Jacobs report. HVE is (also in my opinion, I agree with Cees) peanuts compared to the following (quote report Meester/Jacobs)

        'Another possible factor, we know, is that some people have not given permission for their vaccination records to be included in central research registers. As a result, they are logically not included in CIMS, even though they have indeed received a vaccination. These people are therefore counted as "unvaccinated". It is unclear exactly how often this has occurred (reported, but not precise, figures speak of ±7%); The large mortality spike among unvaccinated people suggests that this has happened disproportionately and remarkably often in people who died shortly after vaccination.'

        Answer
      • Anton Theunissen
        Anton Theunissen the 10/11/2024 at 10:25

        Die ontbrekende 7% is door Nivel grotendeels aangevuld vanuit hun patiënten databases. Die hadden kennelijk geen probleem met de non-consenters. Zie eerdere artikelen of kijk op https//steig.nl voor meer cijfermatige info.

        Answer
  5. Miranda
    Miranda the 15 / 11 / 2024 to the 13: 21

    Regarding the pollution of the NIVEL data:

    The unregistered have also not had a vaccination passport.
    When the QR code was introduced, these people could still register in CIMS. That was necessary to get a vaccination passport. Apparently a fairly large group did not make use of it. Why not? Were they so principled or were they already dead or almost dead by then?
    This group must be disconnected from the unvaccinated. Any research that lumps these two groups together is in fact pointless.

    2
    Answer

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