Anyone who wants to know about the effect of corona vaccinations, for better or worse, must look for circumstantial evidence. The key data that contain all the answers are certainly not being shouted from the rooftops. People have even abandoned scientific principles to avoid revealing the data. As a result, Science™has become as unreliable as government communication. Its own policies are promoted and evaluation is out of the question.
This is why everyone turns to public data to infer something. Lately, therefore, we often see the effectiveness of vaccines "proven" through all kinds of graphs based on public data.
Negative effects that many countries struggle with are negated by pointing to other countries. Or even to just one other country. Bulgaria is also often cited: a country with very low vaccination rates and high excess mortality.
How convincing is this comparing of countries?
At first glance, this point cloud of countries presents a convincing picture. The lower down the graph, the lower the excess mortality. The further to the right, the higher the vaccination coverage. (Imagine here that if the line were horizontal, excess mortality would be the same everywhere, regardless of vaccination coverage.)
This chart is what vaccination advocates like to see: a line from top left to bottom right. That means: the lower the excess mortality, the more vaccination was done. A causal relationship is then easily read from that.
But is what we think we see here correct?
Chart B shows the same thing, filled with data from OurWorldInData. The units are chosen a bit differently to get a better spread across the axes. The picture is similar: a descending line. Again, we find Eastern European countries at the top left.
But anyone paying close attention will see on the left axis that here we have taken the excess mortality rates from before the vaccination campaigns, to be precise April 2020-March 2021!
Mortality as a predictor of vaccination coverage
De toen nog uit te rollen vaccinatiecampagnes konden onmogelijk al invloed hebben op de oversterfte – en toch zien we hetzelfde verband. Dat zou toeval kunnen zijn maar het is toch zinvol om ook na te denken over andere factoren die mogelijk leiden tot zowel hogere oversterfte als een lagere vaccinatiegraad: een minder efficiënt zorgsysteem? Armoede? Ontwikkelingsachterstand? Geografische ligging, cultuur & lifestyle? Voeding?
Whatever the connection: you might expect the post-vaccination excess mortality rates to lead to a steeper line from top left to bottom right. From that, you could see that vaccines are having at least some effect on All Cause Mortality.
This is the graph showing the excess mortality rates Aug. 2021-July 2022. Here the vaccinations have had a chance to prove themselves. Again, we see that countries with higher vaccination rates have lower excess mortality rates.
So what can we learn from these graphs?
No effect of vaccination on ACM
The steeper the line, the stronger the correlation that could indicate positive vaccine efficacy. To compare the trend lines, we superimpose the graphs: blue is before vaccination, red is after. The difference is negligible. There appears to be NO correlation between vaccination coverage and improvement in mortality.
Of the claimed positive effect of vaccinations, nothing at all is seen when comparing European countries.
The differences before and after are miniscule. In any case, of the claimed positive effect of the vaccinations, nothing at all can be found.
And now 2022...
Because not all data from 2022 are yet available, we have chosen a smaller time frame in order to compare the years as purely as possible. Therefore, the trend lines of 2020 and 2021 run slightly differently from each other here than in the earlier graphs.
What is particularly noticeable is that in 2022 the dashed line rises for the first time. The corona mortality has all but disappeared with Omikron. What remains is unexplained excess mortality. It appears that this is increasing as the vaccination rate increases.
When the data from the last months of 2022 are also known, we will see how that purple dotted line evolves, although it will not change very much. As far as we can judge from recent excess mortality levels, the line is more likely to steepen than flatten.
BOVENSTAANDE IS VERDER UITGEDIEPT IN OVERSTERFTE IN 34 LANDEN, FALENDE VACCINS?
Even more convincing: an American insurance expert, Josh Stirling:, explains, using similar graphs, that highly vaccinated areas show higher mortality in 2022 than in 2021. He, too, looks at the shifts in mortality.
The countries with the highest excess mortality later had the fewest vaccinations. This did not increase the differences in excess mortality. Thus, vaccination is not the determinant of lower mortality, as suggested by Chart A .
There are undoubtedly people who endured Covid better thanks to their vaccination(s). That none of that is reflected in the ACM is very worrisome. Earlier, the rivm still bragged about 80,000 prevented corona deaths. How that can be reconciled with the still rising excess mortality was not explained. Despite those 80,000 lives saved, the balance is not positive. Also: if 80,000 deaths were prevented by 2.5 times vaccination, similar results were achieved in other countries with 0.5 times vaccination.
One more country comparison
Another picture that could convince us of the vaccines' effectiveness: Chart E, in which the countries are listed in order of excess mortality. What period this is about is not clear to me, in any case it does not match the current state of affairs. The zigzag line above it indicates the vaccination rate of each country.
Italy is the country with the highest excess mortality rate in this cutout. There are 19 countries with lower excess mortality rates. Of these, as many as 13 have lower vaccination rates. So not even one-third of the countries have been able to combine higher vaccination rates with lower excess mortality rates, compared to poor performer Italy.
Or take Sweden: of the countries with higher excess mortality, only THREE have lower vaccination rates, the rest all higher (or equal). Italy has a higher vaccination rate and over three times higher excess mortality.
Vaccination rates are between 65% and 85%. This should somehow lead to the huge differences in excess mortality. Note also that Italy and Denmark have nearly equal vaccination rates - Denmark even a fraction lower. Yet in Italy, the excess mortality rate is eight times higher. In short ... there is no line in it.
Of the 19 countries with lower excess mortality rates than Italy, as many as 13 have lower vaccination rates.
Chart E is a cutaway from Chart F, which includes Latvia, Croatia, Slovenia, Greece and Hungary. These Eastern European countries are around the 60% vax rate and have the highest excess deaths. The trend line is sloped by those countries. Thus, correlation between higher vaccination coverage and lower excess mortality is suggested.
More about 'confounders'
After what we have seen in the first set of graphs, we know that the mortality differences between countries were there before vaccination. There are countless other factors that may play a role in this, as mentioned, factors such as geography, demographics, lifestyle, wealth. An insight into the mechanisms that affect our vulnerability (including against artificially induced spikes) is provided by the study COVID-19 Spotlights Connections between Disease and Multiple Lifestyle Factors – PMC (nih.gov). The summary:
Because of the widespread effects of SARS-CoV-2, it is necessary to understand how lifestyle choices affect disease severity. This review summarizes the evidence for the involvement of chronic, nonresolving inflammation, disruption of the gut microbiome (dysbiosis with loss of beneficial microorganisms) and impaired viral defenses, all associated with unbalanced lifestyles, in severe disease manifestations and post-acute consequences of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC). The physiological propensity of humans to uncontrolled inflammation and severe COVID-19 is briefly compared with the low propensity of bats to inflammation and their resistance to viral diseases. This insight is used to identify positive lifestyle factors that may work in synergy to rebalance the immune response and gut microbiome, and thereby protect humans from severe COVID-19 and PASC. It is suggested that physicians should consider recommending lifestyle factors, such as stress management, balanced diet and exercise, as preventive measures against serious viral diseases and PASC.