I sorted a month ago for an article in which I wanted to view remarkable adjustments to RIVM data. I already did that a bit 2 weeks ago, but my wildest expectations were still exceeded afterwards; I now keep it at the last two weeks to make the point. In any case, view the slider with the pictures.
15 mei 2021I gave My correction to the prognosis of OMT member Ernst Kuipers. The indicated amazing lower limit was 1.1. The last value is 0.87. I also predicted an R value between 0.5 and 0.8 for next week. We are already there now.
On TV we now see pleasantly surprised OMT people and other care officials about the prosperous withdrawal of the virus. They don't understand much of it, according to quotes such as "That we can leave that hard lockdown behind us is very beautiful. We are now going into the final phase." (AD) and "Maybe people stick to the measures now that there is some perspective again". (Radio 1, don't know who anymore).
The data is public
The RIVM publishes a kind of excel file with columns "lower limit 95% confidence interval", "estimated reproduction number" and "upper limit 95% confidence interval" on R-value. The lower and upper limit of the last two weeks in the Excel are prognoses based on their model. Shifts can still take place for the last week: the tire becomes a little closer or wider, an upper or lower limit can be adjusted.
The prognosis for the lasting week should be fixed, which will be punished by the realized R value the following week. The remarkable now is that if the R-value does not adhere to the last forotized margins, those margin prognoses are simply adjusted afterwards. That happens to three (sometimes four) weeks ago.
The intrinsic quality of the forecasts is also debatable. The RIVM provided for weeks in a row, until week 19, another steep jump up of the R-value (which they always pushed ahead in the absence of Corona), in week 20 that suddenly became a steep fall. As if somewhere in the model a plus accidentally became a minus. Were they forgotten that it was summer?
If there was already a model under the forecasts, then that can be called quite cramped. The original minimum value turned out to be higher in one week than the new maximum value. That is not adjusting, that is just completely wrong. Then you do something. Also let it penetrate the period in which people look ahead. Society is directed on the basis of this foresight.
Specifically:
- From minimal value for week 19 was estimated at 1.1; A week later the maximum value for week 19 Suddenly at 0.8. That is a huge difference.
- The week-17-under limit was in week 19 estimated at 0.95. In week 20 the estimate for the week-17-lower limit is still being reduced to 0.90. A correction of 0.5, three weeks later. (The purple and the black line in slide 5).
Also in pictures
It is somewhat confusing because the most recent date of the calculated R value is always two weeks old. If a final prognosis appears not to come out because a limit value is exceeded by the R value, the prognosis simply changes with the R value. As if you correct your toto form afterwards.
Probably the spin is given that it then displays a "uncertainty margin". But even the uncertainty margins of a week fall outside the later uncertainty margins of the same week. Even the uncertainties are therefore misjudged. Tests of the prognoses against the realized values ​​thus becomes quite a search, especially if only the last updated Excel is available.
But it is understandable that RIVM, looking back at the graph of, is very satisfied with its own predictions.
Click through the slides (and back), then the shift becomes more visible.
... or view it as a video, for fast readers (pause if things go too fast).
Virographics – The Movie 🙂
Another great prediction. The outgoing Prime Minister Rutte has undoubtedly let himself be whispered by the OMT ... But what does he mean:
"This summer it will be a bit of a bit, but towards the autumn/winter the pandemic is really over. Then everyone can just sit together in the office and the mouth caps can all be thrown on the street!"
Or is it more in the direction of:
"Everything will close again in the autumn/winter. And then we continue to work from home and use mouth caps, so we have decided to continue that during the summer."
No, it is really the first interpretation, given the follow -up "Letting go of as much work as possible from home is planned for the last step of the opening plan. Then all other measures, including keeping one and a half meters away and wearing a mouth cap, expire."
So after the summer they will implement the last relaxation, right ...
Never again!
I recently saw someone on the street on her own in the car: not only mouth cap but also the windows open! Crazy, because before she did not take it so closely with Corona; Sick people were a bit of losers and she was never sick.
Later I heard when asked that she really had very much Corona, much worse than other people had said the doctor. She had learned her lesson!
Get afraid of Corona after you have become immune ... the human mind and viruses; It doesn't go well together in one way or another.
