I thought I had finally gotten rid of that virus thing, we are going to get monkeypox. WHO's Tedros declared a state of emergency on Wednesday. Exactly the kind of no-brainer that the new Public Health Act is waiting for in the Netherlands. We can only hope that this time the average right-minded politician succeeds in suppressing the power-grabbing instinct.
Voor wie het heeft gemist: Marion Koopmans trekt al enige tijd op X aan de bel over alles waar het woord "virus" en "aap" in voorkomt, met of zonder broodje. Soms wat alarmistisch, soms relativerend. Maar uit de laatste berichten in diverse media begrijpen we dat de toestand in Afrika toch wel bar en boos is.
A quick look at OurWorldInData.
Worldwide, the number of monkeypox cases reported over the last two years 👇 looks like this
(Those regular blocks are presumably caused by monthly administration, where one enters the date of administration, not the date the disease was diagnosed.)
The urgency is not exactly apparent here. But in Africa, according to the WHO, the situation is now extremely worrying. So let's compare some continents, what has happened there in the past year in terms of infections per million inhabitants? That's the next graph. (Those good Australians, what are they doing!? That must be a mistake.)
Ga met je muis over het woord "Africa" (rechtsonder in de grafiek hierboven) om te zien wat zich daar afspeelt. Daar kan de paniek toch niet vandaan komen. Het klinkt weer alsof een Sales Exec zijn jaartarget niet gaat halen.
Even hoveren met de muis over de lijntjes leert ons dat we in Afrika nu op een aantal 'cases' zitten van 0.01 per miljoen... oftewel 1 ziektegeval per honderd miljoen inwoners. En er lijkt geen groei in te zitten.
Wat we ook horen uit de hoek van de experts: "ja maar deze variant is veel dodelijker! 10%!". Dat is tenminste een getal, daar kun je wat mee. Dat zouden we moeten kunnen zien. Even kijken naar hoeveel doden dat dan de afgelopen tijd heeft gekost, in Australië bijvoorbeeld. Totaal overlijdens aan mpox, per miljoen inwoners. Hé, dat is gek, Australië staat op nul. En het grote probleem lijkt ook niet in Afrika te liggen...
het wordt wel steeds gekker maar het ziet er nog steeds niet echt dreigend uit, niet "exponentieel!" bijvoorbeeld.
So there is only one remedy here: a test campaign with fine-grained registration protocols that expose many more infections and infected deaths. Or manufacture, it doesn't matter, as long as the willingness to vaccinate goes up. In any case, for a bit of a pandemic, the way it is now doesn't look like anything. And of course: there PCR tests are already authorized due to the emergency conditions(!).
The circus is set up again. Substacker James Lyons-Weiler wrote a open letter to the FDA (summary below) to advocate for reliable testing. He wants to prevent tests from being used again as a driver of fear, resulting in vaccination compulsion, among other things.
Summary of James Lyons-Weiler's Open Letter (click to open)
In de brief uit hij zijn ernstige bezorgdheid over de huidige normen voor PCR-testkits die zijn goedgekeurd onder noodgebruiksvergunningen (EUA's) voor MPOX (Monkeypox-virus) en H5N1-griepvirus.
In addition, he regrets the decision of the World Health Organization to declare a state of emergency without evidence of a real emergency. (He also condemns the decision to declare H5N1 bird flu an emergency.)
It's a long letter with a lot of repetitions, you can't be clear enough for those agencies. The key points:
- Mandatory negative checks: It calls for the mandatory inclusion of negative controls in all PCR test kits for monkeypox and H5N1 to ensure accuracy and reliability. This should be done under the supervision of the FDA.
- Consequences of missing controls: Without these checks, there is a significant risk of false positives, which can lead to an overestimation of the number of cases. This can result in unnecessary anxiety, improper allocation of health resources, and undermining trust in health authorities.
- References to COVID-19: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of PCR tests with high cycle thresholds led to false positives and widespread public confusion. This serves as a warning of the possible consequences with monkeypox and H5N1.
- FDA's Current Policy: The FDA has so far only informed the CDC of the need for negative controls in their PCR test kits, which is considered insufficient. This requirement should be extended to all providers as a matter of urgency.
- Broader impact: The lack of consistent negative controls can lead to inconsistency in test results, unnecessary public health measures, and broader societal disruption, such as economic disruptions and the loss of trust in health authorities.
Conclusion: The FDA must act urgently to mandate negative testing in all PCR test kits for monkeypox and H5N1. This is seen as essential for the accuracy of diagnostic tests, maintaining public trust, and preventing harmful effects on public health and society.
Reference: EUA letters from the FDA and information on MPOX and H5N1 PCR test kits:FDA EUA Page.
"Er is helemaal geen vaccinatiedwang!" I hear you in my mind objecting indignantly. No, that's right, really only for people who want something. For example, Kamala Harris, the dream president of our exemplary ally America, makes no bones about it when recruiting her campaign staff:
https://jobs.lever.co/BFP/a3db8c48-0d22-4863-8ee1-b43b8d0d1a95
How do you get infected with monkeypox?
Direct skin-to-skin contact with the rash, blisters or scabs of someone who is infected. So be careful when grooming.
Contact with contaminated materials, such as bedding, clothing, or towels that have been in contact with the rash or bodily fluids of an infected person. A little nurse knows all about this. Standard hygiene rules are sufficient.
Droplet infection by inhalation of large droplets emitted when coughing or sneezing by an infected person. However, this usually requires prolonged face-to-face contact. Yes, we know that song.
Kortom bij zieke mensen afstand houden, de boel schoon houden, een mondkapje helpt, ventileren kan nooit kwaad - aerosolen weglachen is al eerder riskant gebleken.
Transmission from animals to humans, usually through biting or scratching by infected animals, or by preparing and consuming undercooked meat from infected animals.
Men who have sex with men: During the recent outbreaks in several countries, including in Europe and the United States, a significant number of cases were found to occur in men who have sex with men. This does not mean that the virus spreads exclusively in this group, but the close physical contacts within certain social networks have led to a higher incidence in this group.
Het lijkt erop dat je besmette mensen beter niet kunt knuffelen en dat je in een hygiënische omgeving ongelooflijk weinig risico loopt op besmetting. En als je al wordt besmet, is de kans op een ernstig ziekteverloop miniem. Mensen krijgen soms maar 1 pok. Op een vinger of zo. Ik ken zebrapaden die gevaarlijker zijn - in ieder geval voor mensen met een functionerend immuunsysteem.
DID YOU KNOW: Monkeypox for the first time was found in monkeys kept in a laboratory.
The virus was given the name "monkeypox" because it was first found in monkey colonies kept in laboratories in the late 1950s. It wasn't until 1970 that the disease was discovered in humans. So it comes from nature to the lab and there it jumps from hairy monkey to bald monkey. Pure zoonosis!
It should be clear by now: a vaccine is the only way out. Hence the animal experiments.
Or is it? Effective medicines stand in the way of the roll-out of vaccines and medicines against mpox are indeed available in the Netherlands. At least that's what the information site writes soaaids.nl yet. On the RIVM website, that information about the monkeypox medicine has already been removed (Source: Robin de Boer). That almost has to be in preparation for the upcoming (already purchased?) vaccines. A drug, especially if it works well, would only reduce the chance of a broad vaccination rollout, as ivermectin threatened to do with the Covid vaccines.
The African problem: the DRC
Let's be honest: the number of mpox cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo is increasing worryingly. Fortunately, they are not yet at the number of cases per capita that we have here in the Netherlands - let alone in the US, which is much higher - but still: it is rising.
If we look at the deaths, it seems that the healthcare system in Congo does not know what to do with mpox as well as we do. Or the Swedes, where this week een teruggekeerde Afrika-reiziger besmet bleek met de ernstige 'Clade I' variant. He is treated and sent home; de experts achtten het risico voor de volksgezondheid 'zeer laag'. (Source: APNews). Is it the same with Ebola? I don't think so! What were we going to test against? And vaccination?
You may wonder whether it is actually a variant that has suddenly become deadly. Let's take a look at mpox mortality (as a reminder: the Netherlands had almost 3 times as many cases per million people):
Betere zorg? Minder getest? 'Normale' hygiëne?
Of zou er iets met de immuunsystemen van de Congolezen aan de hand zijn? ik kan het niet nalaten toch even te checken... De mpox-symptomen lijken erg op die van waterpokken. Nu is dat een ander virus, dat bij reactivatie gordelroos veroorzaakt, maar daar was Also something with it regarding the injections. I'll give this chart the same start date as the one above. They started vaccinating there very late.
Another problem in DRC was that healthcare workers there did not want to take the vaccines. Only 27,7% of Health Care Workers said they would accept a COVID-19 vaccine if it was available. They felt they didn't need those jabs or they didn't trust them. It didn't really make any progress.
But then again: correlation is not yet causation, unless the number of covid infections decreases after vaccination or measures, then it does. I've combined the two graphs. Nice and suggestive, because nothing is done to protect people from medicines they don't need.
It must be a coincidence again, who knows. In any case, I am not worried for the time being. People are testing and vaccinating to their heart's content! Have a good weekend!
Let's start calling it MONKEYPOX; sounds good
Oh well, they're just trying to push monkeypox through again. The previous attempt failed, it was too soon after covid. People have now put that behind them (the average citizen I mean) and now they apparently hope that it will work now. And hey, otherwise we also have the bird flu up our sleeve. But the jabs will and must come. Whoopee. I'm going to make an appointment...
Nice overview again. DRC is highlighted as a worrisome African country where the "confirmed cumulative deaths per million" is almost 0.1. That is about 5 times higher than in Africa as a whole. If that has anything to do with Covid vaccination, is it true that Covid vaccination in DRC was higher than in many other African countries? Or could it be due to other, deadlier virus variants in DRC?
The confirmed cumulative deaths per million in the US is higher than that in the DRC, namely 0.18. In itself, this 'fits' well with the hypothesis that Covid vaccination may have something to do with the severity of the mpox infection. Vaccination rates in the U.S. are, of course, higher than those in the DRC.
Good and clear article. Glad that there are still down-to-earth people who counteract the culture of fear. If there's one thing we've learned from the corona period, it's that people who are afraid are easy to deceive. H
Nice piece of weather, Anton. I always think of Louis van Gaal when I read things like this. "Are you that stupid or am I that smart?" (to journalists).
I responded a little more extensively on Maurice's site. It's great that he takes over your piece like that.
Zoals we met het Coronavirus hebben gezien, kiest een virus één verspreidingsroute. Blijkbaar is die bij dit virus dus fomite transmission/transmissie via oppervlaktes. Dat betekent dat in dit geval de aerosole route dus geen gevaar oplevert.
Rogier always said that too. I'm not much of an orthodox. I distinguish between driving a pandemic (indeed via the dominant transmission route) and 100% ruling out being infected. Aerosols can precipitate, droplets can evaporate. Moreover, you must ALWAYS respect hygiene rules (also with regard to breathing). If you start neglecting that, you are like someone who crosses a road without looking: "There will never be a car here."
And before you think: I'm not comfortable and take a vaccination against it, first read this blog by Dr. Kevin Stillwagon:
https://drkevinstillwagon.substack.com/p/do-not-get-an-mpox-shot
Not a second of vaccination considered. But useful publication. Didn't know this gentleman. This piece 100% supports Stabell-Benn's findings in Africa with live vaccines.
In my opinion, the biggest problem with vaccines is that there is complete uncritical trust among most people (including doctors). But this is only based on marketing. If you read the history of vacccins, it's a completely different story.
Moreover, there are all kinds of vaccines. But most people think it's all fine apparently.
Even the influenza vaccines have never undergone an RCT.