The current death rate 2019-2020 is slightly below that of 'solid' flu season 2017-2018, including carnival. 'Nothing to worry about' can be read here and there. What is forgotten in that comparison is that that flu season lasted 18 weeks. Corona has had free rein for about three weeks. After that, superspread events were abolished (that didn't even happen in '17-'18, nor did extra hand washing) and a little later spring arrived. The latter is always the signal for viruses to go on holiday, every year. With a return ticket for the autumn.
So you can say that corona is 6 times as dangerous as the flu: in 3 weeks almost the same excess mortality as a severe flu needed 18 weeks. It's certainly not 'nothing'. But on the other hand, countries without strict lockdowns followed the same pattern. [edit: In addition, the mortality rates appear to be very worst case Interpreted because many 'corona' deaths had co-morbidities: they died from a combination of diseases, including corona. With flu it is called a 'natural death' but not with corona because otherwise the fear of the disease would not be great enough.]
Anyway: Corona is not done with us yet. We are only 'rid of corona' when sufficient immunity has been built up. Whether a vaccine will achieve that remains to be seen. For colds (also a corona variant) there is also no vaccine or medicine. That may not have been serious enough, but it didn't work out for SARS and MERS either. The effect of the regular flu vaccine is also very relative. So all the balls on the vaccine? Bad call. Herd immunity then, we have to do something.
From 60% immunity, the virus gets problems spreading. What percentage are we actually at? That's going to be estimated, because we just don't know the current immunization rate. The estimates range from say 6% to 20% of the Dutch. They would then have had corona and therefore built up a certain immunity that is expected to offer protection for at least six months and, in case of later reinfection, at least a better immune response and lower mortality.
What can we expect in the coming seasons?
We are now at a total excess mortality of about 9,000. The lockdown itself has also caused deaths, but let's be mild and say that 8,000 of the 9,000 have died from the corona disease. [edit: this has now been estimated much lower due to the aforementioned co-morbidities and the lockdown itself has more dramatic health effects than the known figures that have not been taken into account.]
Best case: 20% immunity
If we currently set the immunity rate at 20%, we will have to go through a total of three times as much infection to get to 60%, which is 3×20% = 3×8,000 = 24,000 deaths, so 16,000 to go. After all, we had the first wave.
Worst case: 6% immunity
If we set the current immunity rate at 6%, we still have ten times as many, in total to 10×6% = 10×8,000 = 80,000 deaths, so 72,000 to go... Pooh, that's a lot. (I hope I'm wrong about the vaccine.)
Dream case: 30% immunity (hope brings life)
If it's 30%, we've had half... But then we will have a risk of similar outbreaks again next year, although the virus will already have a more difficult time spreading.
Looking forward
So the upcoming flu seasons are going to mean something. It will depend on our behaviour (hand washing, ventilation, hygiene, dealing with events – hopefully no lockdowns) how many seasons are needed – but those deaths are inevitable. A vaccine will hopefully have a dampening effect but will spread the process over more seasons. Corona as a cause of death will not go away unless we simply classify it as flu. That means: slightly heavier flu seasons. That trend was already there. It actually indicates that we are increasingly able to make people live longer despite the fact that they are becoming more and more vulnerable.
Some of the people who have now died from corona might also have been felled by a severe flu or another cause. There will undoubtedly be an overlap between those two groups. So it will certainly not be a hard addition of flu + corona, it will be one of the two for each individual. But it will undeniably result in additional deaths.
Carnival 2021 is actually just not in it
Next autumn and early next year, we will certainly still be facing increased seasonal mortality. Carnival would mean a guaranteed repeat of the past period with unmanageable outbreaks. Assuming that we still want to combat immunization and cannot reshape care and ICU policy, it could be that carnival 2021 will not take place. Make it a face mask/outdoor event! (Provided aerosol theory is not criminalized.)
FEATHER CELEBRATE CARONAVAL!
Spring goan noa fine tow
feather goan noa fine tow
feather loate us neet höbbe!
Ver junt noa fine toe
Ver junt noa fine toe
Four loate os neet ha'n!
Veer kleje us good werrem oan
With scarves and break and cap
Corona blew mer tasty doa
Feather loate us neet infected!
Spring goan noa fine tow
feather goan noa fine tow
feather loate us neet höbbe!
Ver junt noa fine toe
Ver junt noa fine toe
Four loate os neet ha'n!
Meh! Fine hosse gèt hiel gutter!
That's mich werrem in the kaw
Mien pilske bleif och lekker keul
And that of heur gèt sjus zoe gow
– or lang....zaaam:
Spring goan noa fine tow
feather goan noa fine tow
feather loate us neet höbbe!
Ver junt noa fine toe
Ver junt noa fine toe
Four loate os neet ha'n!
What zowwe veer noe inne do
Stoon Zwète and Stoon Dringe
Hej fine brent dit joar the lamp
Hej kinne ver vol-oet zinge:
Spring goan noa fine tow
feather goan noa fine tow
feather loate us neet höbbe!
Ver junt noa fine toe
Ver junt noa fine toe
Four loate os neet ha'n!
© Anton
