Oversterfte juist bij jongere generatie, blijkt uit nieuw onderzoek

In a previous article I have shown how the use of the ASMR method dampens the excess mortality of an aging population. In short: you convert the mortality per age to a population that does not change. It is not growing or shrinking and there is no aging, no baby boom. Each age group maintains exactly the same size in ASMR. This means that with an aging population you remove many more elderly people at the end of a time series than at the beginning of a series of years. And therefore mortality - because mortality mainly affects the elderly.

The problem arises when 'alarmists' point to this graph: the 'crude' mortality in the Netherlands. Crude stands for 'rough': without corrections. Actual mortality probabilities per age, applied to the actual population structure. This results in the measured number of deaths.

The objection to this is that you include all kinds of factors: 'confounders'. After all, the line is rising while in reality we are getting older and healthier. How is that possible? This is due to population growth. With more people you also get more deaths. Plus the baby boom/aging population is exploding. People then say: you have to get that out, with ASMR, that explains everything. Then the mortality rate is really bad. Yes, quite crazy, I think, but those people do die, that is the definition of mortality. And therefore much more mortality than expected and that is the definition of excess mortality.

So if you apply ASMR to an aging population, you must by definition see less current mortality compared to the past - because fewer elderly people are taken into account than there actually are, or the elderly are being supplemented less than at the beginning of the measurement period, which of course has the same effect.

Simple proof: ageing is the sure not

Out of curiosity, I took a look at what NL looks like with ASMR. I have taken the population structure of 2019 as a reference (Yes, you can). 2019 is the last year of a long stable trend. That is Chart 2. Here you can see a downward trend: the population is no longer growing, there are no more elderly people and fewer and fewer people are dying: declining mortality rates.

Yet, contrary to expectations, due to the ASMR, excess mortality remains remarkably high. While you include fewer elderly people than there actually are, the mortality peak seems to remain intact. That's remarkable. This must mean that something special is going on: 80% of the mortality is not among the elderly, as is normally the case. In fact, on closer inspection the deviation from the trend appears to be even less if we do include the elderly! The upside-down world... That shouldn't be possible, but it is:

It was the last thing I expected to see: More mortality if you give the elderly less weight. Then only one conclusion is possible: This mortality is certainly not mainly among the elderly. That mortality is in younger age groups.

Concluding remarks

The earlier statement by CBS does not make sense. This headline is indicative of the reporting. Strictly speaking, of course, it just seems logical: with an aging population, mortality increases. But in the context of unexplained excess mortality, this headline is meant to be misleading. This is not a mere accident, as is also apparent from the text below.

Anyone who knows something about NLP and marketing will see what is happening here.

• Among the over-80s, we see that thousands of lake deceased.
• At 65-80 years: the increase was storage
• Other age groups: eventually too storage

(In 2019, by the way, CBS explained why ageing of the population not increased: because we're getting older... that trend has apparently stopped abruptly since 2020.)

Articles have regularly appeared showing excess mortality in small cohorts, including among people under 65. We see a flood of horror stories and peer-reviewed case studies about blood problems, DNA pollution, heart failure, cerebral infarction, turbo cancer (immune failure), spike production, and that's not counting the non-fatal conditions... It is considered case history and anecdotal because statistically, according to CBS, there is nothing wrong: we are looking at an aging population.

Counter-argumentation quickly becomes a Quite complicated story. With this relatively simple ASMR-like approach, all the pieces of the puzzle fall into place.

The mortality is NOT due to the increase in the number of elderly people, as Statistics Netherlands wanted us to believe. On the contrary: it is not in the elderly.

And what research was it? Well that's the article above 🙂

Receipt dates: ASMR-Nederland-virusvaria.xlsx

It's really not good what's happening, actually this was your job, Agnes...

With thanks to Herman Steigstra, who 'normalized' the Crude mortality in the last graph so that it is mathematically (and optically) comparable to the ASMR figures.

Afterburner: I was asked how it is possible that mortality increases when you take out the elderly. That's because the population is 100% in total. If you take out the elderly, the other age groups are given more weight. If their mortality rates have deteriorated, this is reflected in the difference between ASMR and Crude mortality. The fact that this difference is increasing is worrying.