The covid blueprint on the Russia-Ukraine conflict laid

Guest blog by Guido Versteeg

Since the invasion of Russia in the Ukraine, Covid has disappeared from the front page of the newspapers or from the live blogs of the internet pages. Face masks, infection rates, ICU admissions or booster campaigns: they don't seem to matter anymore. However, I quickly got the feeling that the same dynamic that caused a huge division in society during the Covid crisis is again causing the same kind of split of the population in the Western world and therefore also in the Netherlands.

If you have been critical of the Covid measures taken by the government over the past two years, you will undoubtedly recognise the mechanism. For others, I will try to describe how the polarization in society during the corona crisis came about and try to sketch parallels with the current way in which the war in Ukraine is experienced.

Phases in the Covid crisis

During the covid epidemic, a dichotomy has arisen due to the following phases:

1. The media reports on an impending danger that is advancing from abroad: a virus makes victims in first China and then Italy. The threat is portrayed with dramatic photos and moving images of people who suddenly fall over, emergency workers in protective suits and overcrowded hospitals;
2. The government is taking measures that are far-reaching for the population. They call for solidarity and the closing of ranks to face this threat;
3. The media only brings news about the virus. In newspapers and in talk shows, corona is the only theme that gets attention;
4. Heroes are created by the government and the media: the people in the hospital and care homes are the heroes of this epidemic and a 'applause action' is set up for them;
5. The population responds by all complying with the measures, and also showing that they are participating. There will be posters in front of the windows with 'heart for care', 'together against corona' and there will be massive applause;
6. Citizens, experts or journalists who seek nuance and write or tell stories that go against the narrative of 'corona is a very deadly disease and only by adhering to the measures do we survive as the Netherlands' are first ignored, then critically attacked and finally censored;
7. Doing your own research is discouraged, being widely informed is ridiculed and people with a dissenting opinion are accused of getting all the information from Facebook or from conspiracy theorists websites. People without qualifications accuse critical citizens of not being virologists and therefore cannot or should not form their own opinion about corona;
8. Citizens show that they are good by adhering to the measures, but also by classifying critical citizens as 'wappies'. Some citizens even go so far as to threaten 'wappies'. The police are cracking down on corona demonstrations and this intervention is appreciated by many people;
9. People who do not want to be injected after the vaccine has hatched are first figuratively, but then literally excluded from (parts of) society. Discrimination on the basis of medical status is becoming commonplace and people who are so eager to be good participate in this form of exclusion;
10. Gradually, after a year and a half, there is more room for critical voices in the media. Studies show that critical citizens have or had the facts on their side on a number of points. More and more articles are also appearing in the mainstream media that question the prevailing narrative;
11. After two years, it is again possible to openly criticize the policy pursued, to do your own research and to think nuanced about the corona crisis.

Despite the fact that there is more room for another story, the gap is far from closed. There are still many family relationships and friendships damaged by what people have blamed on each other over the past two years.

Phases in the Ukraine-Russia war

The above pattern can be seen in the current Ukraine war. The following examples are obvious:

1. A few weeks before the raid, the media started spreading fears of a war that might be fought 3000 kilometers from the Netherlands;
2. After the invasion of Russia in Ukraine, almost all politicians immediately spoke out against the invasion of Russia. The government is telling citizens that we need to be united against Russia and start to feel the cost of "protecting democracy", but bear for the higher purpose;
3. The media almost exclusively has an eye for the war in Ukraine, with the MSM spreading a one-sided narrative: Putin is the 'bad guy' and Ukraine the pathetic underdog. Ukraine is European and we, as Europeans, must support Ukrainians;
4. The media creates the new heroes: President Zelensky remains fearless at his post, photo models and top athletes report to the front and old grandmothers push armored vehicles of the Russians backwards. Dutch citizens who pick up and receive refugees are our own heroes;
5. The population reacts exactly as they can be expected to: Twitter and LinkedIn are full of profile pictures with yellow-blue flags, people express their support for the Ukrainian population en masse and a giro555 action is started;
6. Foreign commentators, politicians, or citizens who want to look at the conflict in a nuanced way and indicate that there is guilt on both sides for this conflict are called Putin-lover, communist and seen as traitors. On NPO1 there is open speculation about hanging a politician who has a different opinion about the conflict than the prevailing narrative;
7. The sharing of information that brings nuance to the debate is strongly condemned. Alternative news sources, such as the Russian channel RT, are banned. There is a call to investigate Ongehoord Nederland, because this channel has given a dissenting opinion a platform. Research is requested into the financial flows of a democratically elected party, to see if russian funding has not gone to this party;
8. Citizens show that they are good: Ukraine flags on the twitter profile, the cancellation of ties with Russian companies, athletes, employees and even the discrimination and threats of Russians in the Netherlands by people from all walks of life. Media and citizens draw parallels between people who do not want to take a Covid vaccine and supporters of President Putin. Where the message is clear: both views are clearly not desirable.

The agreements

The parallels are clearly present and this conflict also creates a division in society. The special thing is that traditional views seem to have disappeared: left-progressive politicians who have argued for years for less budget for Defence and against NATO intervention in all kinds of conflict areas are now calling for the loudest to take aggressive and military action against Russia. People who are committed to an inclusive society unceremoniously want to exclude unvaccinated people and Russians from their inclusive society.

It is important that the mechanism becomes clear and that we as citizens arm ourselves against this mechanism. An open debate is important, because there are several sides to each theme. Nuance and mutual understanding can ensure that there is less dichotomy and social cohesion does not disappear. And it ensures that as a citizen you are less susceptible to manipulation and you are able to form your own opinion, based on information from multiple angles.

A conversation about the corona crisis or the war in the Ukraine can also take place without first having to make an explicit disclaimer, such as 'I do not deny that there is a virus and that people die from it and every death is sad' or 'I too am against war and bloodshed of innocent civilians'.

A good conversation could start with 'what do you think of...' and then sincerely listen to the other person's motivation. It is understandable that people are afraid of illness and death, or understandable that people are sad about civilian casualties and want to prevent war. These concerns are justified.

Conversely, concerns about the loss of civil rights and freedom are also justified and, despite being against war, there may also be an understanding why Russia feel threatened by further expansion of NATO or that they want to protect Russian citizens in the Donbas region from Ukraine aggression. One does not have to exclude the other.

Guido Versteeg.