Quacks tasked with proving how well their snake oil works tell success stories of how their product has staved off disease, even though it only caused damage and cost money. You would almost forget how structurally this happens at VWS/RIVM, but fortunately Facebook occasionally helps us activate memories. In this case, one from 3 years ago, October 2020. That innocent FB memory has now become hard evidence that a misrepresentation is being made.
Two versions
Grafiek 1 geeft aan hoe het aantal besmettingen zich ontwikkelde in september/oktober 2020. Was dat nou de blauwe of de oranje lijn? Beide komen van het coronadashboard...
- The blue line comes from the dashboard 2020, on the eve of socially disruptive measures.
- The orange line shows the values that in any case since July 2021 in this graph to stand.
There's a story in that.
The picture that FB activated my memory with was this screenshot, which I posted on Facebook 3 years ago.
Hou even vast: in die drie weken, van 19 september tot 10 oktober 2020, zat er geen enkele beweging in het aantal besmettingen. (Een daling van 0,5% over drie weken is verwaarloosbaar bij een onzekerheidsmarge van zo'n 35%.)
Op 18 september 2020 was er een brief met maatregelen verstuurd aan de veiligheidsregio's, in te voeren per 20 september. Over die maatregelen was zorgvuldig nagedacht door het OMT en de betrokken politici. Het OMT stond in voor de wetenschappelijke onderbouwing, een methode die later ook door de rechter werd bekrachtigd: andere wetenschap telt niet.
Less than a week later, that thorough substantiation was revised again. It was decided to sharpened maatregelen in meer regio's per 27 september 2020. Very quickly, within a week, after they had thought about it so thoroughly.
Het was al niet niks om het land plat te leggen en burgers zoveel schade te berokkenen. En dan besluiten om het regime nog eens extra te verzwaren, nog voordat je überhaupt weet of het wel helpt... Een wonderlijke gang van zaken.
Evaluation only 1 week earlier
The evaluation of the measures was scheduled for October 16. It was explained in detail that evaluating within three weeks made no sense. The effects would only be visible for the first time after three weeks, according to the ministry's chief and the RIVM medicine man.
Desondanks werd die evaluatie een week vervroegd. De planning was duidelijk zoek. En waarom eigenlijk, die week eerder evalueren? De besmettingen stegen al een tijdje steeds minder hard, dat was ook de reden van mijn post toen. De besluiten maakten geen weloverwogen indruk. Deed men maar wat of was het werkelijk allemaal zo rampzalig dat elke ingreep een goede ingreep was? Het is maar hoe je het bekijkt, het zou fijn zijn als de cijfers je achteraf gelijk geven - en ziedaar: dat gebeurt later ook.
Policymakers who cause damage with nonsensical power grabs want to prevent an evaluation from revealing their incompetence. So fairy tales are told afterwards.
We compare the figures from September/October 2020 as communicated at the time with how they are now displayed on the corona dashboard.
Fortunately, thanks to Facebook, we still have the old screenshots because the databases have undoubtedly been cleaned by now. Watch.
On 19 september (beginning of the package of measures), the RIVM estimated 146.803 infections in the country.
On October 10, three weeks later, there were about the same number: 146.380 infections.
(Again: the tiny decrease of 0.5% is meaningless. That amounts to 423 with an uncertainty margin of 40,000.)
Er gebeurde dus... helemaal niets. Van groei was al eerder geen sprake meer, laat staan van "exponentiële" groei, een woord waarvan artsen vooral begrijpen dat ze er zorgelijk bij moeten kijken. De maatregelen konden die stabilisatie niet veroorzaakt hebben (te vroeg voor effect) en áls ze al effect zouden hebben, was dat niet te zien in de besmettingen: geen deuk of scherpe daling.
Op 10 oktober was het verscherpte maatregelenpakket inmiddels al 2 volle weken in gang, het eerdere pakket al 3 weken. Die twee pakketten bij elkaar, dat had toch... Niet dus. Oei. Hoe fixen we dat? Want de mensen moeten wel blijven luisteren natuurlijk.
The superhero scenario
The dreamed scenario would have been: a rapid increase until October 10 and then an abrupt decline as a result of the decisively imposed September measures, completely in line with the predicted delay of approximately three weeks.
Much like the graph below, which shows that the measures have indeed worked. Even much better than we dared to hope! Lo and behold, measures were introduced on September 20, the measures were tightened on September 27 and a few weeks later the growth stopped:
In the three weeks after the disastrous power grab, there now appears to have been an increase from 87,817 to 152,212. That's one increase by 73%That's going to double every month! And whether tougher measures were necessary, imagine if there had not been heavy-handed intervention!!!
And while the real-time figures at the time showed that we had only... 0.5% increase had to deal with during the same period. See the added red dotted line between September 19 and October 10:
En, oh wonder, na 10 oktober, zoals voorspeld drie weken na het invoeren van maatregelen, zakt inderdaad de curve in, getuige de blauwe lijn. Topmaatregelen lijken dat nu te zijn geweest, niets meer aan doen. Dit is gefabuleerd bewijs dat de maatregelen uitstekend uitpakten. Zo komen ze in de rommelkofferbak van de minister. Want "gereedschapskist" is echt teveel eer voor dat oudroest.
A law has been passed because power is never relinquished of one's own accord, even if it has been unjustly enforced on the basis of wrong decisions.
So, as the policymakers and co-responsible parties themselves say, evaluating the measures and delving deeper into the figures is not necessary at all, just look at the blue line, which shows exactly how well we have done! Nonsense, conspiracy stories! Parliamentary inquiry? What do you mean, everything worked, right?
Perhaps the defense is that there have been corrections to the 2020 figures. That indicates how worthless the data was and that they should therefore never have served as a basis for irreversible policy.
Met vaccinaties gaat het al net zo. Die werkten ook "veel beter dan we hadden durven hopen", hoorde ik Robbert Dijkgraaf deze week verkondigen, die liever vergeet hoeveel harde beloftes er zijn gedaan die keer op keer niet zijn waargemaakt. Nog los van de nooit eerder vertoonde oversterfte sinds het begin van de vaccinaties. Een oversterfte waarvan de oorzaak nooit onderzocht zal kunnen worden omdat overheden erom bekend staan niet graag hun eigen kop eraf te hakken. Ten koste van alles. Ze verwarren dat met 'Staatsbelang'.
These are not old cows, it is today's policy justification that justifies in advance future power-hungry misdeeds.
We can expect nothing more from the cheering war journalism (the entire MSM system). We experience North Korean practices.
Hi Anton,
It's nice that you are once again bringing this into focus for the persistent followers of the narrative.
It seems like a long article for something so 'trivial'. But if governments treat data and policy this way, it means something else. And then it is no longer trivial, it is worrying, not to say frightening.
Dear Anton and other interested parties,
It seems like there are few reactions, but in the meantime it is certainly being talked about. Yesterday I spoke with a colleague and suddenly it was about virus variants, how nice it is to know that there are more of them at work. Many have stored somewhere the many nonsense that was and is being told. Fortunately, there are people like you, Anton, who know how to summarize it in easy-to-read and understandable articles. In recent days, special things have happened again: a friend with enormous needlestick damage in her family and constant Covid complaints, but who remained a friend again after a major altercation in 2022, unexpectedly dropped by with her sick babysitter because you can visit a "virus denier" if you are too old to babysit yourself... Another friend announced that she has recovered from Covid and we can quickly meet up to "celebrate". Years ago, she reacted very matter-of-factly to her recovery from a serious form of cancer... People who have not had the injection are confronted with very strange stories and reactions, but also with an enormously increased workload. Of course, someone used to be sick at work, but now you have colleagues who do not report sick but do have many complaints and always have appointments with doctors and care providers. You can no longer rely on them at all... Eye problems, tinnitus, pain and/or failure in the punctured arm, heart and blood vessels, including thrombosis, claudication, etc. etc. It seems as if "everyone" thinks it is normal or at least there are a lot of ostriches walking (sitting and lying) around that react extremely anxiously when you sneeze or cough. The lack of time due to the workload has really increased for us and the feeling of exclusion is no less due to the strange course of events.
Thank you very much C! Nice boost, thank you.
People are strange or we are alienated, I don't know. I heard the following myself:
“No, I'd rather not meet that Wednesday because I got my Covid shot that Monday and I don't know if it will bother me as much as last time.”
People subject themselves to torment as if that is normal with an injection, let alone a vaccine. Like “it sometimes hurts at the dentist, that's just how it has to be”. But a systemic response to an irreversible intervention is different from making a hole in your tooth. With the right threats you can incite the masses to self-destruct, that much has become clear to me.