Facebook herinnert aan kwakzalverij en datafraude

Quacks tasked with proving how well their snake oil works tell success stories of how their product has staved off disease, even though it only caused damage and cost money. You would almost forget how structurally this happens at VWS/RIVM, but fortunately Facebook occasionally helps us activate memories. In this case, one from 3 years ago, October 2020. That innocent FB memory has now become hard evidence that a misrepresentation is being made.

Two versions

Graph 1 shows how the number of infections developed in September/October 2020. Was that the blue or orange line? Both come from the corona dashboard...

• The blue line comes from the dashboard 2020, on the eve of socially disruptive measures.
• The orange line shows the values ​​that in any case since July 2021 in this graph to stand.

There's a story in that.

The picture that FB activated my memory with was this screenshot, which I posted on Facebook 3 years ago.

Hold on: in those three weeks, from September 19 to October 10, 2020, there was no movement in the number of infections. (A decline of 0.5% over three weeks is negligible with an uncertainty margin of about 35%.)

On September 18, 2020, a letter with measures was sent to the safety regions, to be introduced on September 20. These measures had been carefully considered by the OMT and the politicians involved. The OMT was responsible for the scientific substantiation, a method that was later confirmed by the judge: other science does not count.

Less than a week later, that thorough substantiation was revised again. It was decided to sharpened measures in more regions per 27 september 2020. Very quickly, within a week, after they had thought about it so thoroughly.

It was no small feat to paralyze the country and cause so much damage to citizens. And then decide to make the regime even tougher, before you even know whether it will help... A strange turn of events.

Evaluation only 1 week earlier

The evaluation of the measures was scheduled for October 16. It was explained in detail that evaluating within three weeks made no sense. The effects would only be visible for the first time after three weeks, according to the ministry's chief and the RIVM medicine man.

Nevertheless, that evaluation was brought forward a week. The planning was clearly missing. And why actually evaluate that week earlier? The infections had been rising less and less rapidly for a while, which was also the reason for my post at the time. The decisions did not make a well-considered impression. Did they just do something or was it really so disastrous that every intervention was a good intervention? Depending on how you look at it, it would be nice if the figures prove you right afterwards - and lo and behold: that also happens later.

Policymakers who cause damage with nonsensical power grabs want to prevent an evaluation from revealing their incompetence. So fairy tales are told afterwards.

We compare the figures from September/October 2020 as communicated at the time with how they are now displayed on the corona dashboard.

Fortunately, thanks to Facebook, we still have the old screenshots because the databases have undoubtedly been cleaned by now. Watch.

On 19 september (beginning of the package of measures), the RIVM estimated 146.803 infections in the country.

On October 10, three weeks later, there were about the same number: 146.380 infections.

(Again: the tiny decrease of 0.5% is meaningless. That amounts to 423 with an uncertainty margin of 40,000.)

Er gebeurde dus... helemaal niets. Van groei was al eerder geen sprake meer, laat staan van "exponentiële" groei, een woord waarvan artsen vooral begrijpen dat ze er zorgelijk bij moeten kijken. De maatregelen konden die stabilisatie niet veroorzaakt hebben (te vroeg voor effect) en áls ze al effect zouden hebben, was dat niet te zien in de besmettingen: geen deuk of scherpe daling.

On October 10, the stricter package of measures had already been in effect for 2 full weeks, the previous package for 3 weeks. Those two packages together, that would have... Not so. Oh dear. How do we fix that? Because people have to keep listening, of course.

The superhero scenario

The dreamed scenario would have been: a rapid increase until October 10 and then an abrupt decline as a result of the decisively imposed September measures, completely in line with the predicted delay of approximately three weeks.

Much like the graph below, which shows that the measures have indeed worked. Even much better than we dared to hope! Lo and behold, measures were introduced on September 20, the measures were tightened on September 27 and a few weeks later the growth stopped:

In the three weeks after the disastrous power grab, there now appears to have been an increase from 87,817 to 152,212. That's one increase by 73%That's going to double every month! And whether tougher measures were necessary, imagine if there had not been heavy-handed intervention!!!

And while the real-time figures at the time showed that we had only... 0.5% increase had to deal with during the same period. See the added red dotted line between September 19 and October 10:

En, oh wonder, na 10 oktober, zoals voorspeld drie weken na het invoeren van maatregelen, zakt inderdaad de curve in, getuige de blauwe lijn. Topmaatregelen lijken dat nu te zijn geweest, niets meer aan doen. Dit is gefabuleerd bewijs dat de maatregelen uitstekend uitpakten. Zo komen ze in de rommelkofferbak van de minister. Want "gereedschapskist" is echt teveel eer voor dat oudroest.

A law has been passed because power is never relinquished of one's own accord, even if it has been unjustly enforced on the basis of wrong decisions.

So, as the policymakers and co-responsible parties themselves say, evaluating the measures and delving deeper into the figures is not necessary at all, just look at the blue line, which shows exactly how well we have done! Nonsense, conspiracy stories! Parliamentary inquiry? What do you mean, everything worked, right?

Perhaps the defense is that there have been corrections to the 2020 figures. That indicates how worthless the data was and that they should therefore never have served as a basis for irreversible policy.

Met vaccinaties gaat het al net zo. Die werkten ook "veel beter dan we hadden durven hopen", hoorde ik Robbert Dijkgraaf deze week verkondigen, die liever vergeet hoeveel harde beloftes er zijn gedaan die keer op keer niet zijn waargemaakt. Nog los van de nooit eerder vertoonde oversterfte sinds het begin van de vaccinaties. Een oversterfte waarvan de oorzaak nooit onderzocht zal kunnen worden omdat overheden erom bekend staan niet graag hun eigen kop eraf te hakken. Ten koste van alles. Ze verwarren dat met 'Staatsbelang'.

These are not old cows, it is today's policy justification that justifies in advance future power-hungry misdeeds.

We can expect nothing more from the cheering war journalism (the entire MSM system). We experience North Korean practices.