Politicians are too cautious. But imagine if a cautious policy had been implemented and 23,000 corona deaths had occurred in 4 months. Then we wouldn't have been happy with the policy either. At the very beginning, it seemed that without intervention we would soon have tens of thousands or more corona deaths.
Politicians are the ones to blame for such a decision, so I understand that.
But it's getting crazy now.
People are still acting as if we are dealing with a super aggressive virus. That seemed to be the case in the beginning, doubling every three days. Afterwards it became clear that this exponential-looking growth was due to carnival. The virus could not have been cultivated faster in an incubator than for days in a row in packed rooms with packed parties singing and shouting in each other's faces (because of loud music). Born in Wuhan, via the incubators of the ski huts to the carnival incubator in the Netherlands.
In normale omstandigheden had het virus die groeifactor nooit gehaald. [edit 2 juni : inmiddels is gebleken dat virus inderdaad al sinds januari in Nederland was en onopvallend is gebleven als reguliere maar gemene griep]. Met carnaval is het denkbaar dat enkele tientallen mensen duizenden, misschien wel tienduizenden anderen hebben besmet. De R0 wordt over de loop van de weken daarna uitgesmeerd. Dat oogt dan als een exponentiële R0, terwijl het eigenlijk één ongelukkige samenloop van omstandigheden is geweest. Dat verklaart ook wel waarom ze het in bijvoorbeeld China snel onder de knie hadden. Als het coronavirus zich in een normale, niet-feestvierende en zich niet in groepen voortbewegende samenleving verspreidt, is het makkelijk te tracken en tracen en misschien helemaal niet zo besmettelijk.
The response has therefore been adequate, given the observed 'growth factor' and deaths. The RIVM had previously reported that it saw no danger in carnival, so it was later difficult to say that carnival in particular had caused the misery. It was thrown on the R0. Nothing was yet known about the behavior of the virus, and in any case the RIVM knew nothing. The ICU seemed to be the only life-saving factor because it was a lung virus.
Such a carnival explosion continues for a while, even with an R that is less than 1. Even when remission occurred, policymakers did not allow their insight to progress. They still think that the rapid decline of the virus is purely due to their own measures. That is not the case, even though the measures were the only option at that time.
The ideal contagion conditions for the virus are gone. Carnival is over, we now know that group gatherings, contaminated air and poor hygiene are the big drivers. We also know that the ICU offers only very limited relief for people who do not recover.
The measures can now largely be reversed. What remains necessary for the time being:
- No group meetings because then the same thing happens again as during carnival.
- Where there is a higher risk of contamination, for example at hairdressers: regulate with face masks and/or 1.5 meters, but above all:
- Upgrade the ventilation in rooms where more than 5 people are present for a longer period of time. Too little attention is paid to humidity and removal of contaminated air.
Dat laatste zien we bijvoorbeeld fout gaan in verzorgingstehuizen. Dat ouderen eerder bezwijken aan het virus zullen we moeten accepteren maar dat ze gewoon meedraaien in de besmettingsstatistieken, dat kunnen we onszelf kwalijk nemen. Zij moeten beter beschermd worden en de rest moet weer aan de gang, met inachtneming van de genoemde punten.
The economy can therefore continue again, but it remains bad news for the catering industry, public arts and indoor sports for the time being. For (public) outdoor sports, face masks can offer a solution until group immunity has been built up. ByWe should not expect too much from a vaccine.
Hopefully, herd immunity can be accelerated in a humane way so that we can soon visit concerts again, wearing face masks, in well-ventilated spaces. That would be a nice step.
