Covid-19 is the most commonly reported side effect of Covid vaccinations, Wouter Aukema concluded after studying the database of the European Medical Agency. Is that also reflected in the figures 'temporarily'? Are we seeing ups and downs where we'd expect them to? That's why we're working with R-values in this post.

Following an extensive LinkedIn post by Herman Steigstra

Een R-waarde van 1 geeft aan dat er een constante situatie is. We weten dat nog van 2020: een R-waarde onder de 1 was goed: dan zorgt elke besmette persoon voor minder dan 1 nieuwe besmetting en zal de ziekte uitdoven. Bij een R-waarde boven de 1 stijgt het aantal besmettingen.

Now the number of infections is difficult to count - and a cold is not that relevant - so we are looking at corona mortality. What is our expectation and what will come of it? We will determine an R-value of the expected and observed corona mortality. If there are more or fewer, the R-value rises or falls. In doing so, we limit ourselves to the first injections because factors such as naturally built up immunity, booster campaigns and seasonal influences will play a role later. We therefore only look at December 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, when the vaccination effect should be most acute. First, a graph of what we expected.

Prognosis in case of an effective vaccine

De rode stippellijn geeft een schatting van de verwachting van de coronasterfte aan bij een vaccin met een effectiviteit van 50%. Beloofd was ooit 95%, dan wordt de stippellijn iets steiler. Het beginpunt is de door natuurlijke immuniteit behaalde R op dat moment (dus al onder de 1).
The green line indicates the vaccination rate. The vaccination campaign will begin in January 2021. If this were to take off, the corona mortality rate would start to fall faster and faster: the R-value would then have to be lower.

The observed effect

We scale the left axis back to the relevant part of the graph. The red line is the R of the Corona mortality. The expected decrease thanks to vaccination has not materialized. Due to natural immunity, the corona mortality rate has fallen below 1 and mortality is therefore also decreasing in absolute terms. This stagnated in January 2021 and even rose again briefly in February, against the vaccination pressure and of course immunity build-up, and then remained constant. We even see a slight upward trend where we had foreseen a plummeting line.

Correlation with excess mortality

We voegen nog één lijn toe, ook weer een reproductiegetal: de R van de oversterfte. Die loopt goed synchroon met de coronasterfte – tot februari 2021. Logisch want die oversterfte kwam door het virus.
Then, in February, the general excess mortality decreases considerably faster, while the corona mortality decreases much less quickly. As a result, it seems that this corona mortality also includes deaths that would otherwise have succumbed to other causes.

From March 2021, we also see excess mortality increasing again (R-value above 1), while corona mortality continues to disappear (R below 1). Excess mortality is rising in line with vaccination coverage.

Discussion

We can test four hypotheses on the basis of this graph.

• Vaccination reduces mortality from Covid-19.
  Then mortality from covid-19 should decrease faster and faster from January 2021, faster than before. We see the reverse, so this hypothesis is incorrect.
• Vaccination is safe.
  To this end, the general excess mortality after vaccination should no longer increase. We actually see this excess mortality increase one month after the start of vaccination. This hypothesis is also incorrect.
• Mortality is a side effect of the vaccinations.
  This is not denied by anyone, but the extent to which is the big question. If it were an isolated case, it wouldn't show up in these graphs. In any case, this hypothesis cannot be disproved by the blue and green lines running at the same time. So we are worried.
• Covid-19 is a side effect of the vaccines.
  That was the finding we started with. The build-up of natural immunity does not do its job properly. It is possible that the vaccines will play a disruptive role in this. Several immunologists have outlined mechanisms for this.

NOOT: ARTIKEL IS IETS AANGEPAST

Een kritische vraag van lezer WimdR leidde tot een nieuw inzicht dat achteraf toch minder impact heeft dan we zelf dachten. De rode stippellijn moest inderdaad een maandje naar rechts worden verschoven. Immers het effect zou pas goed zichtbaar moeten zijn als de basisserie bij de ouderen/kwetsbaren is afgerond. Die groep bepaalt de oversterftecurve want in de jongeren groepen zit nauwelijks coronasterfte. Het is formeel zeker correcter maar het blijkt lood om oud ijzer.