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The chaos of the numbers

by Herman Steigstra | 14 Oct 2024, 16:10

↠Excess mortality abuse (retracted) LinkedIn vs Herman Steigstra, OM vs Mona Keijzer, Nivel vs Maurice de Hond →
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We are now in a phase where everyone is trying to analyse historical figures and draw their own conclusions. But at the heart of the problem is the chaos that reigns in the numbers that the government distributes. The 23 February figures seem to lift a big tip of the veil, but there is no certainty about this. Everything seems to revolve around the lack of (parts of) the necessary figures, which makes the calculation more like gluing a few broken Cologne pots back together. The shards are jumbled up and everyone can glue their own pot. But we can still go a long way with policy.

The February 23 figures

On 23 February, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) published a number of important Tables, where we see deaths, split into vaccinated and unvaccinated and covid-19 or not. That's where the problems start. The first question is about the cause of death. CBS has a completely different explanation than the GGD for determining the cause of death.

In addition, determining vaccination status relies on reliable registration in CIMS, and friend and foe agree that many mistakes have been made there. Let's take a look at all the chaos. In order to be able to work with the easiest figures, we limit ourselves to the second half of 2022. Everyone who received one or more vaccinations has done so during that period and there are hardly any corona waves anymore. The registration of vaccinated people who are still alive will have been caught up. So we are now looking in particular at the last convulsions of the epidemic.

We start with a simple initial calculation based on these CBS figures (i.e. from 1 July 2022 to 31 December 2022). A total of 85,134 Dutch people died, of which 76,016 were vaccinated. That's 89.3% who died vaccinated, regardless of the cause of death. We will continue to calculate this by comparing it with vaccination coverage.

Vaccination coverage

It seems to be the easiest to calculate, but here too it is appearances that can be deceiving. Vaccination rates vary greatly by age group, ranging from 79% to 93%. The groups for which RIVM reports this are also classified differently than the groups for which mortality has been reported. In the February 23 figures, no distinction is made at all in terms of age.

Therefore, an age-weighted average vaccination coverage has been calculated and that is 90.5% (calculated by multiplying the vaccination coverage per age group by the mortality for that age group and dividing the sum of this by the total mortality). But according to the RIVM, the percentage is based on the number of inhabitants as of January 1, 2020 and another 1.5% has been added until the end of 2022. This brings us to a vaccination rate of 89.2%, which is almost exactly the same as the percentage of vaccinated people at death: 89.3%. That would mean that vaccination has had no impact on the risk of death. So neither in a favorable sense, nor in an unfavorable sense. But there is still a lot of uncertainty....

Doubt

Above all, we must realize that a difference of, for example, 1% in vaccination figures, both up and down, causes a shift of 10% in excess mortality among the unvaccinated. After all, around 10% are unvaccinated and if there is one percent lake has been vaccinated, there is proportionally 10% more excess mortality among unvaccinated people. But if there is 1% less has been vaccinated, then all excess mortality is suddenly among the vaccinated. The same applies to the differences in the registration of vaccinations. Uncertainty in all directions. Time to take a closer look.

Missing from CIMS

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) reports a lot of missing registrations of vaccinations in CIMS as a result of, among other things, the enormous workload. In May 2021, according to reports from the RIVM, there was an average backlog of up to 30%. At the GPs were even missing as much as 63%. The question is whether all the missing registrations eventually ended up in the CIMS.

We now know that government guidelines stipulate that no data of deceased persons to CIMS may be supplied. So vaccinated people who died at arrears during this period should not be included in the CIMS. The figures from Statistics Netherlands seem to confirm this and a 20% lower vaccination rate would indeed have been observed in May 2021. This backlog seems to have been made up in May 2022 if we look at the CBS figures. Until then, the mortality rates seemed to give an undue advantage to the vaccinated. After all, some of the deaths that were considered unvaccinated were indeed vaccinated. Every percent that was missing from CIMS apparently causes 10% more excess mortality among the unvaccinated.

No consent

Some of the vaccinated did not give permission for inclusion in the vaccination register. There has been Werkhoven found that around 7% of vaccinated people have refused registration. This then gives a strong distortion of the unvaccinated deaths at that time.

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) states that almost all the backlog caused by this has now been cleared. But here too, every percent that is still missing as a result, apparently causes 10% more excess mortality among unvaccinated people. It is not clear whether the backlog has been cleared for all vaccinated people, or only for those who are still alive, an essential fact!

Healthy Vaccinee Effect

The consideration of getting vaccinated is partly determined by the health of each individual. On the one hand, these are the people who were too ill to take the vaccine. This effect will be particularly noticeable in the months after they received their call for the first vaccination. The effect is difficult to quantify, but could well have been 10% of the population. But if we set it at 1% with extreme caution, then that in itself is reason to adjust the excess mortality among unvaccinated people downwards by 10%. From a model-technical point of view, you could say that this group of people should be excluded from the statistical evaluation. So remove from both the number of unvaccinated people and the number of people who died unvaccinated. After all, vaccination would not have prevented their imminent death.

On the other hand, there were also people who had received the vaccine well in order to regain their "freedom" and still be able to go on winter sports. These are the people who increased vaccination coverage, but rarely died because of their usually good health. This group also distorts the effect of the vaccines: vaccinated people died less often because of their better health.

Conclusions

If we look at the vaccination figures at the end of 2022 and compare them with the proportion of vaccinated deaths, it seems to be a perfect balance: 89.3% vaccinated deaths with a vaccination rate of 89.2%. A negligible difference. Your risk of death as a vaccinated person was almost as high as your risk of death if you had not been vaccinated.

However, there is a great deal of uncertainty in determining vaccination status in CIMS. There are several reasons for the incorrect inclusion of unvaccinated people after a missing registration in CIMS. So if you want to correct for the mortality rates for this, you should be able to pass on those percentages. If, for the sake of convenience, we currently set excess mortality at 10% for both vaccinated and unvaccinated, then 1% missing registration (regardless of the reason) will change these figures to 11% excess mortality among vaccinated people and no excess mortality among unvaccinated people.

Uncertainty in determining vaccination coverage itself can theoretically cause a deviation both upwards and downwards. But for the other three causes, it will only have a negative effect on the role of vaccination.

With observed registration backlogs of up to 30% in CIMS, 7% non-consent and perhaps 10% HVE, it seems unlikely that the sum of these three factors will ultimately end up at zero, despite the fact that these backlogs have largely been made up, according to RIVM. The restriction that the CIMS no longer receives data from deceased persons by the government also seems crucial.

The chaos in registering vaccinations in CIMS seems fatal for the calculations of vaccine effectiveness. Without corrections, there is no difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. There is also no reason to assume that unvaccinated people are currently disadvantaged by being unvaccinated. A strong indication that the excess mortality may well be exclusively among vaccinated people. But the uncertainty in the figures cannot provide a definitive answer.

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14 Comments
  1. John Berrevoets
    John Berrevoets the 14/10/2024 at 17:52

    There is no honour to be gained from a criminal organization that deliberately withholds or falsifies data.

    You shouldn't want that either.

    Excess mortality is the result of the syringe until proven otherwise.

    The burden of proof is on them and only on them.

    Are you going to keep blocking me on X dear Herman because I don't speak your language?

    Greetings John

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    Answer
    1. Herman Steigstra
      Herman Steigstra the 15/10/2024 at 07:31

      I don't see a block from you on X. I basically only block when inappropriate language is used, not when I disagree with a statement.

      3
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      1. John Berrevoets
        John Berrevoets the 15/10/2024 at 13:39

        @JohnBerrevoets Is blocked by your dear Herman.

        1
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    2. c
      c the 15/10/2024 at 09:10

      Dear John, could it be that x has placed you in a different "bubble" than Herman? See Jeroen Pols at the new world for an explanation! We have the experience of those "bubbles" too and sometimes the odd one out popped up in the bubble... It's not conspiracy thinking 😉

      2
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      1. John Berrevoets
        John Berrevoets the 15/10/2024 at 13:40

        Tnx will look into it

        1
        Answer
  2. Elisa
    Elisa the 14/10/2024 at 22:51

    An ever-darkening smoke screen is deliberately erected. You won't find them more criminal than our government in Europe, is my humble opinion.

    Perhaps it would be an idea to compare the excess mortality in certain villages/neighbourhoods?

    Something like:
    – Urk versus Grachtengordel Amsterdam
    – Rotterdam-south vs Maarssen

    The fact that CBS has already set the baseline mortality line 10% higher than that of 2019 says it all.
    Rig from the top ledge. Corrupt and criminal. Spread the word!

    8
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    1. El
      El the 15/10/2024 at 13:51

      It is certainly scum, and I do not think the smokescreen is getting darker, but rather more transparent. Because of the sleeping crowd, they can now even openly go ahead with their plans. They don't even have to lie anymore, they just do. Just look at the decisions in the EU and the UN. Our ministers vote positively on matters that our 1st and 2nd chambers vote against on. A digital currency that is programmable, digital ID, stimulation of wars are all decided outside our democracy and the chambers do nothing at all and exacerbate demands such as monitoring citizens, such as 3000 euros instead of EU 10000 euros. CO2 proven to have only 0.00036% effect, but sucks away a thousand billion and everyone knows that the Corona EU billions fund is only used for 5% for healthcare, just continues uninhibited. Follow Arno Welling, a super journalist who explains on Youtube via "Current ratio" exactly what the EU is planning and is just openly doing. Nothing smokescreen except for the media of course. The real culprits are the lazy people who are still sleeping.

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  3. Kris Panneels
    Kris Panneels the 14/10/2024 at 23:03

    Dear Herman,

    Thank you very much for your super solid analyses. The picture is becoming clearer and clearer. The jabs have not helped at all, on the contrary: they have caused a lot of damage and suffering.
    We ourselves came to the same conclusion more than a year ago, but on the basis of statistics from the British Office for National Statistics.
    The article we wrote about this can be consulted here: https://vaccinatieschade.be/kontrast/de-covid-prik#gsc.tab=0

    Best regards

    6
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  4. Arnoud
    Arnoud the 15/10/2024 at 08:00

    Good morning Herman,

    Thanks again for all your work. This is also the case for this post.

    I have a question. I'm just a layman, but I wonder if this is true:

    "Every percent that was missing from CIMS seemingly causes 10% more excess mortality among the unvaccinated."

    Just above that it says that 20% to 30% was behind in registering the jabs. That 10% would be based on a grade of about 90%. Is that 10% still correct (in case of a change of 1%)?

    Bvd for your (possible) response.

    Mvg,

    Arnoud

    2
    Answer
    1. Herman Steigstra
      Herman Steigstra the 15/10/2024 at 13:36

      That is exactly the 4-10X higher mortality rate for unvaccinated people that Nivel comes up with. They don't take this into account.

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      1. Arnoud
        Arnoud the 16/10/2024 at 12:39

        Oh, ok. So that's what you meant. Bright. Thanks.

        1
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  5. Cees Mul
    Cees Mul the 15/10/2024 at 10:54

    Agree with John Berrevoets above. The burden of proof should lie with the government. But they frustrate the course of events. It will partly be ignorance, but they certainly also deliberately withhold data. Most of them will be hangers-on.
    So it's very good that people like Herman and many others are going to try to interpret data themselves. It's constantly swimming against the current.
    To me it is abundantly clear that the jabs cause misery and probably have 0 benefit. In the meantime, there is sufficient evidence abroad. Only in the Netherlands do the jabs have a negative effect on people who do not take them. Clownworld.
    Just read this one about the Scottish Covid inquiries.
    https://sanityunleashed.substack.com/p/is-the-scottish-covid-inquiry-being

    Maybe a nice piece for the Volkskrant or NRC, or at least the Telegraaf.

    As I said before, I have now come to the point where I assume that there has never been a pandemic. Only a pandemic of unreliable PCR tests, exaggerated press reports, alarmist predictions, fear mongering, completely wrong protocols etc, and worst of all, massive rollout of 'vaccines' that would be the only way out (out of what? a flu wave).

    What remains is who the useful idiots are and were and who deliberately participated in deceiving the population.

    Fear that they are doing everything they can to keep the truth under wraps.

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  6. El
    El the 15/10/2024 at 10:57

    I've been following the numbers (read Maurice and Virusvaria etc.) since 2021 when I woke up. Despite the fact that I work a lot with numbers, it remains difficult for me to fathom what exactly is wrong. So I let go of the numbers and look at other symptoms.
    The government and agencies register the figures and practice (and my personal experience) tells us that they are not suitable for this. While it falls under their primary work. For years, I myself reported made-up figures to CBS because the mandatory requested figures were not registered at RWS where I worked. CBS never took a sample, you only got a response if you were late. They didn't care as long as they got grades, apparently. So I see the sources as very unreliable, which is also confirmed all the time. Just the fact that the age groups differ from each other (authorities) makes a lot clear, no communication and they don't care at all what the other does or is bothered by.
    A second point is that the government has apparently become the enemy of the people. As a civil servant, I have experienced to an increasing extent that civil servants are only in office for 1 purpose: "Ikke ikke ikke". There is a total sense of responsibility towards the citizen. Simply splitting canteen waste is an impossible task for the most highly educated civil servants on the Rijnstraat (The Hague, approximately 7,000 civil servants). The dirtiest toilets can also be found there. Also, the civil servants see no relation to their expenses and taxes, they think they work for a company and think they are entitled to something and no duties to the citizen who pays them. Symptoms abound that prove that civil servants have become public enemy number 1, instead of the employee in the service of the people. We all pay our enemy to oppress us, how crazy can it be?
    Apart from this, I know that there are also many (too few) good civil servants who get a burnout because they cannot and are not allowed to do their job properly. (exception is Omtzicht which is just a Wolf in sheep's clothing, an impostor who gets a burnout due to a bad conscience I think)
    Long story but my common sense already knows that the pharmaceutical industry, the food industry and the financial sector, among others, make us sick and weak instead of better and if the government instead of protecting us from such evil 100% stimulates and promotes this kind of mafia. Then I don't need any more proof. It's not a conspiracy, it's just the nature of the animal, man, who simply can't help wanting to be the strongest in everything. And will do nothing to make that happen. Fortunately, there are also caring people with different needs, but they are now losing out and clearly do not work for the government. The media and government have been taken over by too many people with the wrong character traits, nature is out of balance there. You need both for balance and prosperity for all.
    The fact that they show that excess mortality exists is actually a miracle to me.

    I find it very admirable that people like Virusvaria and Maurice remain steadfast and do not become discouraged by the deliberately polluted figures. You don't drive these people crazy, I think this is wonderful. Above all, keep going.

    Even though it has long been established to me that vaccination through Gen techniques is nothing but Genocide. Eradicate the old and weaker (and their concern) is something that Hitler already had in mind and that banner has been quietly adopted by the technocrats and globalists. Strange, really, that they want to keep the stronger ones. I'm a big believer in nature. Nature always provides a balance. Without that balance, life is not possible. For example, the Covid virus was naturally reduced very quickly to a harmless cold virus while it was still very deadly in the laboratory. In the same way, nature will ensure that the globalists make mistakes without knowing it, it's just a pity that it doesn't happen so quickly, this hassle has been going on since the 1st world war and only now do they think they can take over power. Still too early I think, AI is only just in the making. But then again, power beckons too hard and the founders don't live long enough for more delays. Nature will intervene again, it has done so for as long as it has existed. Man can (and should) give nature a helping hand, as part of that nature. And people like here at Virusvaria are the medicine created by that nature. Nature brings balance by creating people with the right characteristics and resistances. But then again, what do I know about it. Hope gives life.

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  7. zz
    zz the 15/10/2024 at 13:05

    Thanks, Herman and Anton, for the tireless efforts regarding the dangers of the injections. However, 'garbage-in garbage-out' seems to be the principle that has been aimed at in all registrations, etc. They created a data soup with something for everyone, deliberately destroyed for critical analytical minds like yours. Criminal and punishable, in my view.
    What could still help expose what the guilty parties have done:
    1. Raise awareness of the suppression of doctors who prescribed calculated drugs. I just read a story of a doctor who cured his covid patient (early in the pandemic), publicized it, and was told by the Minister of Health, Welfare and Sport (then van Rijn) that they (the government) were only focusing on vaccines and that he would visit the inspectorate if there was any dissent. How do we look at this? Stupid, criminal, or both?
    2. More attention to the proven effects of the injections on the heart. See Prof. Burkhardt's book, which has just been published. Obviously: damage caused by the gene injections. See also the relentless posts of top cardiologist Peter McCullough.
    3. Veel meer discussie, tussen experts, over de rapporten van Meester versus Nivel; liefst op prime time op TV. Wie durft dit aan te kaarteN?

    5
    Answer

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