Note on withdrawal: In this article, I hoped to be able to reduce the bizarre excess mortality rate of 250% among unvaccinated people, as Nivel communicates, to a simple calculation error. Unfortunately, it's not a calculation error, I was wrong myself. It is purely the data issue that leads to these impossible outcomes. Whether that makes things that much better is doubtful. Because with a mortality rate of 25%, a quarter of unvaccinated people over 80 have died every year since 2021. In this way, we are moving towards a vaccination rate of 100%. And of the unvaccinated over-75s, only a few make it to their 85th birthday, then you probably know that.
The article with the incorrect calculations is below.
Bij een maximumsnelheid van 100km is de hypothese dat BMW-rijders 105 zullen rijden. Uit onderzoek blijkt vervolgens dat ze 110 rijden. Het Nivel zou dan als volgt rekenen: "we verwachtten 5km, gemeten werd 10km. Dat is dus een snelheidsoverschrijding van 100%. Oftewel: BMW-rijders rijden twee keer zo hard." Dat kan natuurlijk niet.
Ander voorbeeld: als iemand beweert dat hij 2.000 gram suiker in zijn koffie heeft, weet hij niet waarover hij praat. Hij heeft misschien ergens een meet- of rekenfout gemaakt maar dan nog: hij beseft gewoon niet wat een gram is. Als zo iemand vervolgens een rapport maakt over het effect van suiker, leidt dat ongetwijfeld tot bizarre resultaten, ook al zegt hij 'ja maar ik bedoel met een gram wat anders'. Dat kan niet. Net als het begrip 'gemiddelde' of 'decimaal' kun je ook 'oversterfte' geen andere betekenis toekennen. Toch is dat wat het Nivel-rapport doet.
So what does it mean?
Met de aanduiding "oversterfte" wordt bedoeld: (significant) meer sterfte dan verwacht. De overschrijding kan worden uitgedrukt in absolute getallen maar omdat cohorten en populaties verschillende groottes hebben en groeien en krimpen, wordt doorgaans een relatieve aanduiding van oversterfte gebruikt. Dat gebeurt dan in procenten van de verwachte sterfte, de total expected mortality.
Het is dus niet correct om een oversterftepercentage (bv 5%) te delen op een verwacht oversterftepercentage (bv 2%) en het resultaat vervolgens te presenteren als 150% oversterfte. De overschrijding is dan wel 2,5 keer zo hoog, maar dat maakt de oversterfte geen 150%. Het verschil tussen de verwachte 105% en 110% is 5% (5 procentpunt, om preciezer te formuleren). Als je de verwachting als referentie of baseline neemt, stel je die op 100%. Dan is de waargenomen oversterfte 4,7% (5/105). Twee oversterftepercentages op elkaar delen is niet gangbaar en het resultaat mag zeker niet als "oversterfte" worden gepresenteerd.
This is what happens in the Nivel report, see the table above. But also textually, see the screenshot below. And journalists are eagerly adopting it.
An excess mortality of 230-282% over 12 months
It's really there. From the moment others got jabbed, those who didn't get jabbed died 3.5 times as often, for a year. This is stated in the report as an important conclusion, you really can't read over it.
So they agreed, prof. dr. Eelko Hak (University of Groningen), dr. Susan van den Hof (RIVM), Prof. Agnes Kant (Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Centre Lareb), Prof. Jean Muris (Maastricht University), Dr. Tim olde Hartman (Radboud UMC), dr. Lilian Peters (University of Groningen/University Medical Center Groningen), prof. dr. Bas van den Putte (University of Amsterdam), prof. dr. Eugène van Puijenbroek (Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Centre Lareb), Prof. Theo Vos (University of Washington), Prof. Ir. Liset van Dijk (Nivel), Dr Reed Sorensen (University of Washington) and Dr Claire Aussems (Nivel) contributed to the statistical analyses in this research funded by ZonMw.
And special thanks to former ZonMW director Prof. Dr. Cardula Wagner, who is also chairman of the Board of Directors of Nivel, without whom this research would probably not have been possible.
Het failliet van het establishment. Ik wilde schrijven 'van de wetenschap' maar daar heeft dit weinig meer mee te maken.
Op zich zou dit al reden zijn voor een grondige herziening, en niet alleen van het rapport trouwens. Ware het niet dat er meer zwaarwegende redenen zijn die zullen nopen tot het terugtrekken van het rapport. Zie ook "More Nivel worries and, of course, the articles by Maurice de Hond.
🤣🤣 This is really too sad for words.
Fortunately, there are still critical people
Hegemony, the locked up! Sad...
Anton@ In 2021, approximately 85 percent of Dutch adults and nearly 90 percent of over-60s had been vaccinated. That old group also accounted for nearly 90 percent of coronavirus deaths in 2020.
Because you were considered unvaccinated again after six months and the booster people did not count as vaccinated again for six months until January 2022, only slightly less than half of the vaccinated population had actually been vaccinated at any time over the whole of 2021 and registered as such and classified in studies as such. In 2022, that percentage was even lower.
But it's even worse. The vulnerable 60-plus group etc were not formally considered vaccinated until two weeks after their second shot, so usually sometime in April to six months after that in October. Precisely those months when there was little corona.
What conclusions can you draw if you also take these things into account?
No, that's not an issue here, it's really the vaccination date. But there are many other problems with missing registrations that have caused deaths in vaccinated people to be missed. See @SteigstraHerman's recent work on X and on LinkedIn.
Things are going from bad to worse. Just throw it in the trash with this research
the question remains what Nivel means by "vaccinated". If not the moment of the injection is used, but "2 weeks after the second injection" (and before that you are "partially vaccinated" after 1 week), then people can die unvaccinated after the injection. And possibly FROM the vaccination....
No, in this case, that is the vaccination date. But there are many other problems with missing registrations that have caused deaths in vaccinated people to be missed. See @SteigstraHerman's recent work on X and on LinkedIn.
Thanks! That's not so bad...
Surely you are also one of those amateur statisticians that the acclaimed Volkskrant journalist is talking about? 😉
No, I don't exist. I don't think I'm screaming loud enough. 😎
From the report: "... than among unvaccinated/unregistered people..." How can one actually process data of people who are not registered, what data is used and what is the source of that data?
These are people who are known to general practitioners but for whom there is no vaccination status in their systems.
Anton, let's not forget that this is not a purely Dutch phenomenon. Fenton and Neil have found the exact same chaos in the ONS data in GB in 2022. The number of unvaccinated deaths rose dramatically after a round of jabs. See 'Fighting Goliath'. If you want, I can give you the page numbers. Mass vaccinated deaths were also reported as unvaccinated in Sweden. Just like the myth that it was mainly unvaccinated people who were in the ICU. All lies. I don't believe (anymore) that they are mistakes. We have been deliberately deceived, for a long time. See all those WOO requests that show that it has been clear for a long time that the mRNA jabs cause seriously many side effects, including deaths.
But they just keep going. Only in the Netherlands do the mRNA still work as a life-prolonging elixir.
Now all that remains is to find an explanation for the excess mortality. The government trains all investigations. And that's understandable, they would fall through the cracks.
No update from RIVM on yet https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland – certainly still plausibizing ...
We are curious to see if the extra high hump that they have included in the mortality forecast this autumn will cover up the autumn vaccination misery. (Just spoke to someone who got/gets a high fever for days with every shot (5 or 6 already?) and is really sick for days – but has never reported that in Lareb).
In Vienna, yesterday's free city newspaper published a piece about the large numbers of flu and corona patients. Hospitalizations and even 2 in the ICU. "Get impfed against both!" Was already so quiet in the city but ambulances come and go... from the Netherlands many messages from sick pricked acquaintances and pricked friends. I am very curious about the numbers and the figures.
Nothing to worry about.
https://www.nivel.nl/nl/zorg-en-ziekte-in-cijfers/actuele-cijfers-ziekten-per-week
Fortunately, they don't bother healthcare staff with it in the Netherlands, so no increased figures (yet). In Vienna, 75000 people (registered) sick with corona and flu, 66 in hospital and 2 in the ICU in mortal danger out of 1.8 million people, about twice as many inhabitants as Amsterdam. Maybe more anxious? Face masks are also more common in Vienna. Or more people with weakened immune systems (jabbed?)? Both the flu shot and the corona shot are free, according to yesterday's newspaper report. Make it stop! Maurice has already climbed into the pen again, I read. Thanks all!