I thought I had finally gotten rid of that virus thing, we are going to get monkeypox. WHO's Tedros declared a state of emergency on Wednesday. Exactly the kind of no-brainer that the new Public Health Act is waiting for in the Netherlands. We can only hope that this time the average right-minded politician succeeds in suppressing the power-grabbing instinct.
For those who missed it: Marion Koopmans has been sounding the alarm on X for some time about everything that contains the word "virus" and "monkey", with or without a sandwich. Sometimes a bit alarmist, sometimes putting things into perspective. But from the latest reports in various media, we understand that the situation in Africa is dire and angry.
A quick look at OurWorldInData.
Worldwide, the number of monkeypox cases reported over the last two years 👇 looks like this
(Those regular blocks are presumably caused by monthly administration, where one enters the date of administration, not the date the disease was diagnosed.)
The urgency is not exactly apparent here. But in Africa, according to the WHO, the situation is now extremely worrying. So let's compare some continents, what has happened there in the past year in terms of infections per million inhabitants? That's the next graph. (Those good Australians, what are they doing!? That must be a mistake.)
Hover your mouse over the word "Africa" (bottom right of the graph above) to see what's going on there. That can't be where the panic comes from. It sounds like a Sales Exec is not going to reach its annual target.
Hovering over the lines tells us that in Africa we are now at a number of 'cases' of 0.01 per million... or 1 case of disease per hundred million inhabitants. And there doesn't seem to be any growth in it.
What we also hear from the experts: "yes, but this variant is much more deadly! 10%!”. At least that's a number, you can do something with that. We should be able to see that. Let's look at how many deaths that has cost recently, in Australia for example. Total deaths from mpox, per million inhabitants. Hey, that's crazy, Australia is at zero. And the big problem doesn't seem to be in Africa either...
It's getting crazier and crazier but it still doesn't look really threatening, not "exponential!" for example.
So there is only one remedy here: a test campaign with fine-grained registration protocols that expose many more infections and infected deaths. Or manufacture, it doesn't matter, as long as the willingness to vaccinate goes up. In any case, for a bit of a pandemic, the way it is now doesn't look like anything. And of course: there PCR tests are already authorized due to the emergency conditions(!).
The circus is set up again. Substacker James Lyons-Weiler wrote a open letter to the FDA (summary below) to advocate for reliable testing. He wants to prevent tests from being used again as a driver of fear, resulting in vaccination compulsion, among other things.
Summary of James Lyons-Weiler's Open Letter (click to open)
In the letter, he expresses serious concerns about the current standards for PCR test kits approved under emergency use authorizations (EUAs) for monkeypox (Monkeypox virus) and H5N1 influenza virus.
In addition, he regrets the decision of the World Health Organization to declare a state of emergency without evidence of a real emergency. (He also condemns the decision to declare H5N1 bird flu an emergency.)
It's a long letter with a lot of repetitions, you can't be clear enough for those agencies. The key points:
- Mandatory negative checks: It calls for the mandatory inclusion of negative controls in all PCR test kits for monkeypox and H5N1 to ensure accuracy and reliability. This should be done under the supervision of the FDA.
- Consequences of missing controls: Without these checks, there is a significant risk of false positives, which can lead to an overestimation of the number of cases. This can result in unnecessary anxiety, improper allocation of health resources, and undermining trust in health authorities.
- References to COVID-19: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of PCR tests with high cycle thresholds led to false positives and widespread public confusion. This serves as a warning of the possible consequences with monkeypox and H5N1.
- FDA's Current Policy: The FDA has so far only informed the CDC of the need for negative controls in their PCR test kits, which is considered insufficient. This requirement should be extended to all providers as a matter of urgency.
- Broader impact: The lack of consistent negative controls can lead to inconsistency in test results, unnecessary public health measures, and broader societal disruption, such as economic disruptions and the loss of trust in health authorities.
Conclusion: The FDA must act urgently to mandate negative testing in all PCR test kits for monkeypox and H5N1. This is seen as essential for the accuracy of diagnostic tests, maintaining public trust, and preventing harmful effects on public health and society.
Reference: EUA letters from the FDA and information on MPOX and H5N1 PCR test kits:FDA EUA Page.
"There is no vaccination compulsion at all!" I hear you in my mind objecting indignantly. No, that's right, really only for people who want something. For example, Kamala Harris, the dream president of our exemplary ally America, makes no bones about it when recruiting her campaign staff:
https://jobs.lever.co/BFP/a3db8c48-0d22-4863-8ee1-b43b8d0d1a95
How do you get infected with monkeypox?
Direct skin-to-skin contact with the rash, blisters or scabs of someone who is infected. So be careful when grooming.
Contact with contaminated materials, such as bedding, clothing, or towels that have been in contact with the rash or bodily fluids of an infected person. A little nurse knows all about this. Standard hygiene rules are sufficient.
Droplet infection by inhalation of large droplets emitted when coughing or sneezing by an infected person. However, this usually requires prolonged face-to-face contact. Yes, we know that song.
In short, keeping your distance from sick people, keeping things clean, a face mask helps, ventilation never hurts – laughing away aerosols has proven to be risky before.
Transmission from animals to humans, usually through biting or scratching by infected animals, or by preparing and consuming undercooked meat from infected animals.
Men who have sex with men: During the recent outbreaks in several countries, including in Europe and the United States, a significant number of cases were found to occur in men who have sex with men. This does not mean that the virus spreads exclusively in this group, but the close physical contacts within certain social networks have led to a higher incidence in this group.
It seems that it is better not to hug infected people and that in a hygienic environment you run incredibly little risk of infection. And if you are already infected, the chance of a serious course of illness is minimal. People sometimes only get 1 pock. On a finger or so. I know of crosswalks that are more dangerous – at least for people with functioning immune systems.
DID YOU KNOW: Monkeypox for the first time was found in monkeys kept in a laboratory.
The virus was given the name "monkeypox" because it was first found in monkey colonies kept in laboratories in the late 1950s. It wasn't until 1970 that the disease was discovered in humans. So it comes from nature to the lab and there it jumps from hairy monkey to bald monkey. Pure zoonosis!
It should be clear by now: a vaccine is the only way out. Hence the animal experiments.
Or is it? Effective medicines stand in the way of the roll-out of vaccines and medicines against mpox are indeed available in the Netherlands. At least that's what the information site writes soaaids.nl yet. On the RIVM website, that information about the monkeypox medicine has already been removed (Source: Robin de Boer). That almost has to be in preparation for the upcoming (already purchased?) vaccines. A drug, especially if it works well, would only reduce the chance of a broad vaccination rollout, as ivermectin threatened to do with the Covid vaccines.
The African problem: the DRC
Let's be honest: the number of mpox cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo is increasing worryingly. Fortunately, they are not yet at the number of cases per capita that we have here in the Netherlands - let alone in the US, which is much higher - but still: it is rising.
If we look at the deaths, it seems that the healthcare system in Congo does not know what to do with mpox as well as we do. Or the Swedes, where this week a returned Africa-traveller turned out to be infected with the severe 'Clade I' variant. He is treated and sent home; The experts considered the risk to public health to be 'very low'. (Source: APNews). Is it the same with Ebola? I don't think so! What were we going to test against? And vaccination?
You may wonder whether it is actually a variant that has suddenly become deadly. Let's take a look at mpox mortality (as a reminder: the Netherlands had almost 3 times as many cases per million people):
Better care? Less tested? 'Normal' hygiene?
Or could there be something wrong with the immune systems of the Congolese? I can't resist checking anyway... The mpox symptoms are very similar to those of chickenpox. Now that's a different virus, which causes shingles when reactivated, but there was Also something with it regarding the injections. I'll give this chart the same start date as the one above. They started vaccinating there very late.
Another problem in DRC was that healthcare workers there did not want to take the vaccines. Only 27,7% of Health Care Workers said they would accept a COVID-19 vaccine if it was available. They felt they didn't need those jabs or they didn't trust them. It didn't really make any progress.
But then again: correlation is not yet causation, unless the number of covid infections decreases after vaccination or measures, then it does. I've combined the two graphs. Nice and suggestive, because nothing is done to protect people from medicines they don't need.
It must be a coincidence again, who knows. In any case, I am not worried for the time being. People are testing and vaccinating to their heart's content! Have a good weekend!
Let's start calling it MONKEYPOX; sounds good
Oh well, they're just trying to push monkeypox through again. The previous attempt failed, it was too soon after covid. People have now put that behind them (the average citizen I mean) and now they apparently hope that it will work now. And hey, otherwise we also have the bird flu up our sleeve. But the jabs will and must come. Whoopee. I'm going to make an appointment...
Nice overview again. DRC is highlighted as a worrisome African country where the "confirmed cumulative deaths per million" is almost 0.1. That is about 5 times higher than in Africa as a whole. If that has anything to do with Covid vaccination, is it true that Covid vaccination in DRC was higher than in many other African countries? Or could it be due to other, deadlier virus variants in DRC?
The confirmed cumulative deaths per million in the US is higher than that in the DRC, namely 0.18. In itself, this 'fits' well with the hypothesis that Covid vaccination may have something to do with the severity of the mpox infection. Vaccination rates in the U.S. are, of course, higher than those in the DRC.
Good and clear article. Glad that there are still down-to-earth people who counteract the culture of fear. If there's one thing we've learned from the corona period, it's that people who are afraid are easy to deceive. H
Nice piece of weather, Anton. I always think of Louis van Gaal when I read things like this. "Are you that stupid or am I that smart?" (to journalists).
I responded a little more extensively on Maurice's site. It's great that he takes over your piece like that.
Zoals we met het Coronavirus hebben gezien, kiest een virus één verspreidingsroute. Blijkbaar is die bij dit virus dus fomite transmission/transmissie via oppervlaktes. Dat betekent dat in dit geval de aerosole route dus geen gevaar oplevert.
Rogier always said that too. I'm not much of an orthodox. I distinguish between driving a pandemic (indeed via the dominant transmission route) and 100% ruling out being infected. Aerosols can precipitate, droplets can evaporate. Moreover, you must ALWAYS respect hygiene rules (also with regard to breathing). If you start neglecting that, you are like someone who crosses a road without looking: "There will never be a car here."
And before you think: I'm not comfortable and take a vaccination against it, first read this blog by Dr. Kevin Stillwagon:
https://drkevinstillwagon.substack.com/p/do-not-get-an-mpox-shot
Not a second of vaccination considered. But useful publication. Didn't know this gentleman. This piece 100% supports Stabell-Benn's findings in Africa with live vaccines.
In my opinion, the biggest problem with vaccines is that there is complete uncritical trust among most people (including doctors). But this is only based on marketing. If you read the history of vacccins, it's a completely different story.
Moreover, there are all kinds of vaccines. But most people think it's all fine apparently.
Even the influenza vaccines have never undergone an RCT.