And yes: monkeypox has the A-Status. Rightly or wrongly?

To my dismay, monkeypox has been given A-Status. This is bad news for the Dutch: in the case of SARS-CoV-2, the A-Status has turned out to be the license to institute law-violating draconian measures, even when the virus caused less damage than the flu. On the page of the central government state "It is very much about dealing with individual cases. No general collective measures are to be expected."Let's not look at the statements from the beginning of 2020 to see to what extent we can rely on such a promise. But monkeypox – what is it?

We don't have to consult our media. Take nu.nl. That reported this week that May 18 was the warmest May 18 ever! That's spectacle news again, playing on the "warming" rhetoric. Apparently, we have to hunt down the closet again.

A journalist who had been paying a little attention could have seen that that record is not so much due to a super hot day as to the fact that May 18 was an outlier. The previous 10 warmest days have an average temperature of 29.4 degrees. That's a full degree higher than the 28.4 nu.nl reported! May 19, 1 day later: 30.4 degrees! And no, not really warming related, that was 70 years ago.

So the striking thing was that May 18 lagged behind for so long with its warmest day. That strange situation has now been rectified.

Furthermore, 28.4 turns out not to be even correct. It was 29.6.

There will be crying: "yes but we were too early, we didn't know that yet." So why take Twente with 28.4? If you can't know yet, shut up.

In Ell, 28.8 degrees were measured. In Hupsel 29.2. Nieuw-Beerta: also 29.2. In Arcen it was even 30.2 degrees! There were no less than four measuring stations warmer than the one in Twente! And in Maastricht it was 31.3 a day later, so what is such a report supposed to do, with its 28.4? The claim is flawed and the number is not even correct. It's what you call "DISINFORMATION". The article is no longer online, it has been replaced with better information. But the tone has been set, the fire has been rekindled.

In short: deplorable rubbish journalism. It's an example that doesn't make sense and that's why it's so striking. That's how they write about everything, including Covid. Just as sloppy, uninformed and in step with a supporting narrative, without any substantiation or thorough check. And that should then provide us with information... About a monkeypox virus that suddenly rears its head after a vaccination campaign. By the way, you are probably a wappie if you assume that a vaccine, which is permitted under certain conditions, is closely monitored. The opposite is the case. Anyway, about excess mortality next time. What is monkeypox?

It was first found in monkeys and is now mainly spread among homosexual males. The word that came to mind was "banal" 🙂

Fortunately, we can now look for our own sources for reliable information. In the absence of good science reporters, we do just that. The newsreel can go to the pot. This brings me back to Robert Malone. He wrote a useful article today. He shares on its substack about monkeypox his knowledge, in response to the question he was frequently asked: "Is this monkeypox outbreak a real threat, or is this another case of exaggerated and threatening public health messages?".

For those who prefer to read (somewhat edited) Dutch, below is the translation of his piece. I've left out a few sections (technical or anecdotal) that don't add much to the encyclopedic line of the story. If you still want to read everything, just read his article.

Robert Malone on monkeypox

The monkeypox virus, which originates in several regions of Africa,isrelated to Smallpox (Variola), both of which are members of the genusOrthopoxvirus. However, it is important to understand that Variola (large or small) is the type of virus responsible for the worst human disease caused by theOrthopox viruses. For example, cowpox, horsepopped and camelpox are also members of this genus, none of which pose a major threat to human health, and one of which (cowpox) has even been (historically) used as a smallpox vaccine. My point is that just because monkeypox is related to smallpox, it in no way means that it poses a similar public health threat. Anyone who claims otherwise is in fact engaged in or otherwise supporting weaponized public health-related propaganda. In other words, spreading public health fear.

History

Monkeypox was first identified in 1958 in colonies of monkeys, and the first human case of the virus was identified in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Most likely, this was only the first case to be identified, because people living in Africa have been in contact with monkeys and the other monkeypox animal hosts for thousands of years. The "West African" monkeypox clade (clade = branch of variants) currently circulating outside of Africa causes milder disease compared to the closely related virus found in other regions of Africa (Congo clade).

Symptoms

The symptoms of monkeypox are somewhat similar to, but much milder than, smallpox disease. The general clinical presentation of the disease caused by the West African monkeypox clade virus includes influenza-like symptoms – fever, body aches, chills – along with swollen lymph nodes. A rash on the palm of the hand is often observed. In the final stage of the disease, which in some cases can last up to a month or more, small lesions may occur that develop a scab and may result in a small depigmented scar. There is no evidence of asymptomatic transmission. In other words, current medical knowledge indicates that it is only spread through face-to-face contact between an uninfected person and someone who already has symptoms of the disease. Therefore, the spread of diseases can be easily controlled by classic public health interventions, such as contact tracing, temporary quarantine of those who have had physical contact with someone who is infected, and prolonged quarantine of those who develop symptoms.

Endemic and zoonotic

Essentially, all the current cases in the west that we see in the news are among men who have sex with men and appear to be due to close physical contact. Monkeypox is endemic in many parts of Africa and is a "zoonotic" virus, meaning it can be transmitted from a variety of animals (not just monkeys) to humans. Initial animal-to-human transmission followed by limited human-to-human transmission is likely to be the cause of the sporadic cases typically observed in Africa.

Chickenpox, which is highly transmissible, is not part of the genusOrthopoxvirus, despite that name 'smallpox'. Again for emphasis, Cowpox and Camelpox also belong to the genusOrthopoxvirus,and they are not particularly pathogenic when contracted by humans;only because Monkeypox is a "smallpox virus" in the genusOrthopoxvirus, does not mean that it is particularly deadly.

Contagiousness

[…] The various Orthopox viruses are often cross-protective from an immunological point of view. In other words, if you have been vaccinated with a smallpox vaccine or have previously been infected with cowpox, camelpox, or monkeypox, there is a good chance that you are quite resistant to diseases caused by the monkeypox virus that is now (quite rarely) reported in non-African countries.

Huidige gegevens geven aan dat apenpokken niet erg besmettelijk is bij mensen – het heeft een lage Ro (misschien onder 1), wat de term is die wordt gebruikt om te beschrijven hoe efficiënt een infectieziekte zich van mens op mens kan verspreiden. Nogmaals, dit is super goed nieuws voor het bedwingen van verspreiding. Een Ro van <1 betekent over het algemeen dat (zelfs bij afwezigheid van social distancing van andere inperkingsmaatregelen), voor elke persoon die al besmet is, gemiddeld minder dan één andere persoon besmet zal raken. Ter vergelijking: de Omicron-varianten van SARS-CoV-2 hebben een Ro in het bereik van 7 tot 10. Een virus met een Ro van minder dan één kan gemakkelijk worden ingedamd met de hierboven besproken standaardmethoden voor de volksgezondheid. Een virus met een Ro van 7-10 is in wezen niet in te dammen en zal zich snel over de hele wereld verspreiden, zoals we hebben gezien met de Omicron-varianten. In het geval van een virus met een Ro rond 1 of minder, kunnen traditionele methoden voor het indammen van infectieziekten zoals contactopsporing, identificatie en isolatie van geïnfecteerde personen alles zijn wat nodig is om het virus onder controle te houden. […] Het gebruik van een vaccin om die inperking te helpen via “ring” -vaccinatie of wijdverspreide vaccinatiestrategieën is over het algemeen onnodig en kan zelfs contraproductief zijn, afhankelijk van de veiligheid van het vaccin – rekening houdend met het feit dat geen enkel medicijn of vaccin volkomen veilig is.

I was [once] assigned by the Department of Defense to look at historical DoD smallpox vaccine campaign records related to "adverse events" in the military, following alleged bioterrorism after the 9-11 attack. In some cases, a small subset of young fighters and recruits had a previously undetected immunological defect that led them to develop an ongoing infection by the live attenuated vaccine virus being used at the time. The other group developed more subtle symptoms, including what now appears to have been vaccination-associated myo- and pericarditis – usually attributed to an autoimmune process. These problems were known risks when smallpox vaccination was common. But smallpox had been eradicated, and Cheney's worst-case scenario never materialized. Those who have been vaccinated and harmed to protect themselves against a non-existent threat are a good example of a completely inverse risk-benefit ratio. All risk, no benefit. And, appropriately, the smallpox vaccination campaign was halted.

To remember

This isn't influenza or COVID – this virus mutates slowly, it's not very contagious, naturally acquired immunity is powerful and long-lasting, and Orthopox vaccines are usually cross-protective. The risk of immunological escape is very, very low. And the spread of this virus can easily be stopped by simple, inexpensive classic public health measures. If it were otherwise, we would have experienced a monkeypox pandemic decades ago.

The severity of monkeypox disease can vary with different variants (found in different regions in Africa, which also suggests that the virus has been around for a long time). Fortunately, this particular variant is less severe and appears to be endemic in Africa. Unfortunately, it has rarely been studied and so relatively little is known about the virus and its associated human disease, largely because the infectious threat to the general population is so low. STAT news' journalist Helen Branswell recently interviewed CDC experts and published an excellent summary of the clinical presentation:

"With one to three days after the onset of fever, a striking rash appears, often starting on the face. Many conditions can cause rashes, but the monkeypox rash has some unusual features, most notably the fact that blisters can form on the palms of the hands. In countries where it is endemic, the virus is believed to spread primarily to humans from infected animals when people kill or prepare bushmeat for consumption.

Once the virus jumps on humans, human-to-human transmission can occur through respiratory droplets — virus-laced saliva that can infect the mucous membranes of the eyes, nose, and throat — or through contact with monkeypox lesions or bodily fluids, where the virus enters through small cuts in the skin. It can also be transmitted through contact with clothing or linens contaminated with material from monkeypox lesions. (STAT News).

Outbreaks and vaccines

There was a previous outbreak of Monkeypox in the United States in 2003. That particular outbreak, the first to be reported outside of Africa, was traced back to the importation of small mammals from Ghana. As evidenced by this outbreak, multiple animals can contract the disease — during that outbreak, large possums and squirrels tested positive for the virus and eventually spread it to prairie dogs sold as pets in multiple Midwestern states (according to the CDC). Forty-seven people contracted the disease of the prairie dogs. This is an important and relevant history, because the current outbreak seems to be taking place from human to human transmission, with no single individual being traced as case zero. There have been a few other outbreaks outside of Africa of travelers from Nigeria over the years. It is currently thought that the Monkeypox virus is much more prevalent in Nigeria than previously reported.

There is a vaccine that was approved in the U.S. in 2019 for people 18 and older to protect against smallpox and monkeypox; Bavarian Nordic Jynneos. A second vaccine, ACAM2000 made by Emergent Product Development, protects against smallpox and is also believed to provide some protection against monkeypox. Both vaccines are only licensed for people who are at high risk of contracting the disease because they are not completely safe. In the 2003 Monkeypox outbreak in the U.S., the smallpox vaccine was used in individuals who were considered high-risk.

The U.S. already has stockpiles of the vaccines in the Strategic National Stockpile, a hedge against public health emergencies. "To combat a smallpox emergency, the SNS has enough smallpox vaccine to vaccinate the entire U.S. population. In addition, the SNS has antiviral drugs that can be deployed to treat smallpox infections, if needed," a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services said via email. In my opinion, the purchase of $119 million smallpox vaccines just approved by the U.S. HHS and Biden administration represents an unnecessary and unwarranted expense unless there is data showing that the current strain is significantly different from the historical predecessor strains within this variant branch.

The WHO's Van Kerkhove noted that some of these products are licensed using what is known as the Animal Rule, where animal efficacy data is used as a surrogate because the lack of circulating smallpox means the vaccines or drugs cannot be tested for efficacy in humans. As a result, such a product could only be used in the context of a clinical trial, she said.

"There are options. We just need to make sure that they are used properly. One of the things about vaccines is that we want to make sure that if the vaccines are needed and used, they are used by populations that need them most. There's not enough supply of anything right now," she said.

Still, she expressed confidence that the outbreak can be contained.

"What we need to do now is focus on stopping the spread. And we can. We can do that with the right messaging, with the right testing... with supportive isolation and clinical care where needed, with protection of health workers," Van Kerkhove said. (STAT News).

Bill Gates-funded organization GAVI has given their assessment of the medical threat of Monkeypox, whichcan be found here. Many readers of this substack will not be surprised by my assessment that this GAVI threat analysis is highly biased towards exaggeration. For example, the article tries to create parallels between Monkeypox and Ebola:

As with viruses such as Ebola, transmission occurs only in close proximity through contact with lesions, bodily fluids, respiratory droplets, or contaminated materials such as bedding or clothing.

Readers who have become alert to this kind of information manipulation and the implementation of measures will immediately notice two important things. First, the reported mortality rate of 3.7% (NOT 10%) of the cases originating from suspected, unconfirmed cases. Second, this estimate is strongly focused on the seriously ill: countries will rarely detect cases of mild illness and thus will not report it to the WHO.

In conclusion

So, is the biothreat real? Is it imminent? Does it justify the global media hype? Two days ago, as I waited in an airport lounge to travel from the US to the UK, I saw a CNN newscast reporting on this "threat" while showing historic footage of patients with smallpox disease. This is, in my opinion, a classic example of fearfor public health and CNN should be reprimanded for broadcasting irresponsible propaganda – disinformation and disinformation – under the guise of journalism.

In my opinion, based on the information currently available: monkeypox is a virus and disease that is endemic in Africa, appears sporadically after transmission to humans from animal hosts, and is usually spread through close human contact. It is easily controlled by classic public health measures. It does not have a high mortality rate. Unless there has been some genetic change, either through evolution or deliberate genetic engineering, it is not a significant biothreat and has never been considered a high-threat pathogen in the past.

SoStop sowing fear, disinformation and disinformation.

Now also a 10-minute video of Pierre Capel

Two perhaps somewhat conspiratorial options, but we should not rule them out:

1. Could the virus have been artificially mutated, which we don't know but the virologists do?
2. Are the immune systems still as functional today as they were in the days when the virus could do little harm?