Excess mortality soon to about 10,000 per year

I should actually delete this article. At the time, we had no idea that the vaccines would affect excess mortality and the method of calculating excess mortality has since been adjusted. This article could be seen as a prelude to the pleidooi voor 'normsterfte' Although I didn't know that at the time.

That is not two seasons added together, as is happening now with Covid-19, no, that will be the average per year. Sharp mortality, such as last year, especially among the elderly, will be seen every year in the next 20 years. Not only are there more and more people, there are also proportionally more and more elderly people during that process. The virus that is dominant at that time will then be pointed out as the culprit of excess mortality, especially when we start testing again. This year could just be the first year in that series.

[edit: there are now thorough analyses of a.o. Bo van der Rhee on LinkedIn en (n.a.v. de cijfers van het Belgische RIVM "Sciensano") een article by Els Ooms on her own blog.] What I write below is broadly in line with that.]

That doesn't look good in terms of peaks

Thanks to better life-prolonging care, hygiene and medication, we keep the elderly among us for longer and longer, like autumn leaves on the tree, when there is no wind. Until another nasty virus comes along. Those will be real hits of at least 8,000-12,000 flu deaths per season. You don't want to think about skipping a year or two (no significant virus for a while, little excess mortality). What will happen in the first subsequent serious flu season, I don't want to think about, in terms of healthcare capacity. Maybe I'll be among them myself. Hopefully we will be a bit better prepared by then, with an RIVM that does have foresight.

Judging by the population pyramid, those mortality peaks will only stabilize in 20 years, and then fall again at the current level and lower.

Flu peaks are important indicators of aging. Not just from a virus.

Je zou zeggen: toch maar opschalen die ziekenhuizen en IC's. En toch maar gaan ventileren. De hier genoemde getallen zijn maar ruwe schattingen maar dat iets dergelijks gaat gebeuren is onontkoombaar. Nu ik dit zo voor mijn geestesoog afdraai, begrijp ik beter dat ook de pensioenfondsen en verzekeraars zich wat zorgen maken.

And healthcare?

Healthcare is having a hard time. Currently, the largest part (80%!) of time and hospital budgets goes to the last years of life. Can you imagine how many last years of life will come at the same time? We should have been prepared for that a long time ago. Healthcare can wet the chest. The corona crisis is a dress rehearsal.

The only way to smooth out those future virus peaks is: prepare ourselves with the right ventilation/ionization/UV-C etc, nutrition, vitamin D+K, Zinc. Hopefully, there will also be a solution that virologists see potential in.

Addition based on a great analysis of the situation in Belgium by Els Ooms

In summary: Excess mortality is determined on the basis of the pre-estimated mortality. The amount of this estimate determines the exceedance. How that estimate is calculated is therefore decisive for the resulting excess mortality.

The piece by Els Ooms makes it clear that if this mortality estimate is made taking into account population size and structure (i.e. growth and ageing), the excess mortality of 2020 will all but evaporate. Keep in mind that excess mortality, together with the mismanagement of ICU capacity, is an important justification for the draconian measures.

Nu ziet de bevolkingspiramide van België ziet er gelijkmatiger uit dan die van Nederland. Haar cijfers en percentages zullen dus niet één-op-één van toepassing zijn op de situatie in NL, aangezien zij met de sterftecijfers per leeftijdscategorie rekent. De piramide van NL is 'topzwaarder' dan die van België. Het zou mij niet verbazen als hierdoor de onderschatting van de sterfte bij ons nog groter blijkt dan die in België.

She also calculates what it looks like when calculating with QALY. A tough piece but worth reading!