On 20 February, there was an excess mortality debate, which was characterised by the almost complete absence of figures. A flood of disinformation from State Secretary Vincent Karremans and the V-word was apparently banned. Therefore, here is an overview of the figures that could have been shown in this debate, of course without the use of that V-word.
We have been dealing with unexplained excess mortality since the beginning of 2021. All kinds of explanations and arguments have been put on the table. All easy explanations have been passed by and debunked. So a mystery remains: where does this unexplained excess mortality come from?
It reminds us of the Greek mythological figure Thanatos, the personification of Death: merciless and arbitrary (his name is still used with the word euthanasia). Would there be arbitrariness in passing a death sentence? So let's take a look at the cause of the excess mortality Thanatos call.
Then let's see at what moments Thanatos has struck, perhaps we will see a pattern. We are going to make a tour of the graphs.
Excess mortality since 2019
In this graph, we see excess mortality, starting in 2019, the last year without an epidemic.
In 2019 a flat curve, there was no flu, no excess mortality. In March 2020, there were the first deaths from corona. Until March 2021, we see excess mortality (black) that is almost completely covered by corona (red). Apart from the height of the mortality peak in April 2020, a picture that corresponds to a normal flu wave. From April 2021, Thanatos mercilessly but, unlike the flu, does not let go: "The Riddle of Thanatos”.
Karremans: excess mortality is caused by heat and cold waves and flu, among other things
We don't even have to go into the figures themselves: we see both a higher and a strongly fluctuating mortality on average, as if there was a flu wave every quarter. There are certainly real flu waves among them, but the picture is completely different from before 2020. We can just see Karremans' heat wave peak between the first and second wave (August 2020).
Hospital admissions
Our Thanatos also has control over hospital admissions. Until the end of 2023, NICE published the number of hospital admissions due to covid-19 on a daily basis. We compare it to the number of deaths from corona that RIVM reported daily until October 2023:
Here too we see that Thanatos strikes in March 2021. Until then, the number of daily hospital admissions had risen almost in line with the number of corona deaths. In March 2021, the number of hospital admissions suddenly rose explosively, no longer in sync with covid-19 mortality, and this pattern continued to repeat itself until the end of its registration.
Since Thanatos the number of hospital admissions will eventually be ten times higher compared to the mortality from corona. This also remains unexplained. The slight correlation that you keep seeing is inevitable: if the virus circulates intensively, people with a Covid infection will always die, even if they die of something else.
Seasons
If we show the excess mortality figures per season, we get a better picture of the annual mortality waves. We have regularly shown similar graphs to this one. This graph is current until mid-February 2025:
The four seasons with accumulated excess mortality, in the years prior to corona, are shown as orange lines. They remain almost entirely within the seasonal bandwidth. On the far right, we then read the accrued mortality in that season.
In March 2020, corona enters the country and excess mortality then follows the red lines. At the end of the 2019/2020 season, an excess mortality of 30 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants (= 5400 deaths) has accrued.
We also see the accumulated excess mortality decreasing again from May 2020: this is what the Undermortality after excess mortality. On the left, the corona mortality continues as a red line until October 2020 (the hiccupcule is the heat wave in August), after which the second wave appears and continues until March 2021. We see the same picture as with every flu wave. At the end of December 2020, we already see the increase stagnate and from February 2021 the increase again Undermortality after excess mortality.
In March 2021, Thanatos shut. Excess mortality bends upwards, never to return to normal. At the end of the 2020/21 season, the total excess mortality is 47 per 100,000 or 7600 deaths.
The black lines are the deaths in the following years. It was highest in the 2021/22 season: almost 13,000 deaths. We see that in the following seasons, excess mortality decreases slightly every year. The 2024/25 season is a provisional forecast, which we will adjust weekly after new weekly figures become available.
Histogram seasons
We can also simplify this graph into a histogram with a bar for excess mortality (blue) and a bar for deaths from corona (red) per flu season:
In both the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons, we saw more deaths from corona than there was excess mortality. This makes sense, because corona is also "replacement mortality": without corona, a different cause of death would have been determined and corona therefore only partially causes excess mortality.
In the 2021/22 season, the picture has suddenly changed. Now there is three times as much excess mortality as deaths from corona and also three times as much as in the first corona season. Thanatos does its job thoroughly!
Ages
Age also plays an important role in the risk of death. Here we see that Thanatos especially the people under the age of 80. We have shown this graph before:
Dark blue is the expected mortality based on the mortality figures for 2010-2019 and light blue is the actual mortality. The arrow is the trend in mortality that has been followed since 2022.
According to the blue bars, the trend in the number of deaths under the age of 80 should have continued to decline very slowly after 2019. However, corona put a stop to this in 2020 and we will indeed see 30 more deaths per 100,000 than expected in 2020.
But in 2021, Thanatos and mortality has even increased to 50 per 100,000 more than expected, while corona had almost disappeared by now. In the following years, we do see a slow recovery, indicated by the blue arrow. But the recovery is painfully slow.
Remarkably, the comparable graph for 80+ shows that excess mortality for that group has almost disappeared!
The red bars are again the forecasts based on the historical development up to 2020: we are very slowly getting a little older. The orange bars are again the actual mortality, which will have caught up with the predicted values in 2026 if this trend continues.
RIVM prognosis
Since 2024, RIVM has been participating in reporting excess mortality figures again and is again using the procedure familiar to them: the average of the previous 5 years after removal of flu waves. What this removal means is the big question, because we now only see waves.
Karremans: RIVM is doing better now, because they remove flu waves, CBS not
Removing "flu waves" should lead to a lower baseline than what CBS calculates. We did indeed see this in the years prior to corona, where RIVM calculated a slightly lower baseline than CBS. This is strange, because the RIVM now comes up with a 14,000 higher baseline than CBS. Apparently, the many death waves were not assessed as flu waves by RIVM and simply participated in their calculations.
If we include these forecasts from the RIVM as orange bars in this histogram and compare them with those based on demographics (i.e. taking into account aging and so on), we get this remarkable graph:
Because we are now in the fifth corona year, the RIVM prognosis is also almost the same as the excess mortality we are seeing now. The forecast for the next year (which runs from July to June at RIVM) will therefore be adjusted again in a few months and then the orange trend line will continue even further to the top right.
Karremans: CBS does not take ageing into account, RIVM does
The RIVM calculates the prognosis solely on the basis of the mortality rates of the past 5 years, indeed after the removal of flu waves. But the development of the population composition, the aging population, is not taken into account. CBS (and we ourselves) base their forecasts on a meticulous analysis of the population and mortality figures of the 5 years prior to the corona pandemic. For the past few years, that is a bit of a matter of guesswork. Even the ex-CBS employee Pierik was unable to put this into words.
Karremans: "Rapport Meester" is not peer-reviewed, so don't use it
The RIVM calculation procedure has not been published (and therefore certainly not peer-reviewed), so we cannot recalculate it. What is certain is that it is based on wrong assumptions, namely the model of the previous 5 years as "the new normal". A peer review would certainly have revealed this concoction.
But everything has now fallen into political choices. We have a responsible State Secretary who is not aware of the calculation methods of RIVM and CBS and a committee that is unable to ask critical questions.
Ages in more detail
We can also visualize the increased mortality in more detail. So for each age the extra chance of dying. We always compare this with the previous year 2019. Of course, we can still think about that, because in 2019 there was no flu, so a bit less mortality than usual. But we compare each next year with 2019, so every year will have to deal with the same figures. We are going to look at this graph:
First, we look at the blue line, the excess mortality in 2020, the year with by far the highest number of coronavirus deaths. Remarkable and striking is the much lower excess mortality between the ages of 50 and 65.
Apparently, corona had little effect on this age group. Perhaps this can be explained by a built-up immunity to corona viruses (SARS-CoV-2 was not the first corona virus!) during their childhood.
That must have been an epidemic around 1970. From that time it was indeed known that several corona viruses were circulating: HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43. According to Karremans, it should therefore be an aging population of 50-year-olds.
We also see that the excess mortality per 20-year age difference increases about tenfold: at 25 years 0.001%; 45 years 0.01% ; 70 years 0.1% and at 90 years 1%.
The advantage that the 50-65 year old group had in 2020 has completely disappeared in 2021. Thanatos is now taking everyone, even the people who were probably already immune are now having to deal with Thanatos. Only the oldest over the age of 78 will be a little better off from 2021. Ages under 35 also face a higher mortality risk.
From 2022 onwards, we are gradually seeing some improvement in most ages.
Ageing
A popular concept with those who want to downplay figures. Ageing is structurally included in the calculation of mortality expectations. Both by CBS and by us, not by RIVM.
Karremans: excess mortality is due to an ageing population, CBS does not take this into account
Like CBS, we calculate a mortality probability for each age and by multiplying that probability by the number of inhabitants of that age, the number of expected deaths is calculated. The ageing population itself (the population pyramid) is known exactly for the years up to 2023 and in a few months also for 2024.
This graph clearly shows that. The number of deaths in the oldest age group increases annually by about 1700. This is reflected in the annual adjustment of the baseline. Ageing therefore has a significant impact on the no impact on our statistics. A detailed justification of this can be read at ResearchGate.
Life expectancy
A figure that has been used a lot lately is life expectancy. CBS likes to announce that life expectancy is once again At pre-corona levels drunk.
But CBS is trying to make us happy with a dead sparrow. The fact is that our life expectancy up to 2020 has been rising very slowly for decades. "At the level of before corona" means that we have fallen back to the level of almost 10 years ago. A decline in life expectancy, in other words.
For the years 2020 to 2023, life expectancy can be calculated exactly. For 2024, there is a good estimate based on provisional figures. For the following years, based on estimates from the graphs above, we see life expectancy slowly rising back to the original trend before 2020.
In this graph we see life expectancy visualized. The lines drawn are the long-term forecasts based on historical figures. For men an increase of about one year of life every 5 years and for women slightly less: one year of life every 8 years. So these life expectancies are slowly creeping towards each other. It is remarkable that our calculations correspond quite well with those of CBS.
In 2020, life expectancy was reduced by an average of 0.8 years due to corona. But in 2021, it was further reduced by 1.0 years due to Thanatos. The light-colored dots are our forecasts, mainly based on the rate at which excess mortality among people under the age of 80 is falling. This decrease can also be seen in the graph with seasonal mortality. Both graphs show a decrease of about 30% in 4 years. This means that at that rate, we still have about 7 years to go before excess mortality has disappeared in 2033. But of course this remains a crystal ball prognosis!
Conclusion
We can be brief about excess mortality in 2020: it was corona. In 2021, excess mortality was only partly explained by corona, the vast majority was unexplained and appears to be mainly in the age group under 80 years. We see this recurring in various graphs. A sudden increase in excess mortality in April 2021, unexplained, as if Thanatos started working at that time. So the big challenge is to find out who or what Thanatos actually was. It came suddenly in April 2021 and is slowly disappearing again until it is expected to disappear around 2033.
In today's debate, it became clear that Thanatos should not be mentioned by name. It is described as a multifactorial analysis, with which everything is said. The word in question is therefore not to be found in this article. However, all the figures you are looking for can be found in this article.
Great overview, thanks! And I also find your prognosis very useful, which seems very reasonable to me.
It's a bit glass-half-full: unfortunately it's still not going as well as expected, but life expectancy seems to be backtracking back to the historical trend.
Still, it remains to be seen whether in ten years' time the harmful effects of "Thanatos" will indeed have almost completely disappeared – to be honest, I dare to doubt that, which is why my crystal ball prognosis is a bit less optimistic than yours.
If thanatos is always welcomed as soon as the leaves fall, I also fear that the excess mortality will remain.
In addition, I am curious about the effect of thanatos on population growth in the youngest age category. And the life expectancy of this new growth.
One of the reasons you believe in riddles, Herman, is because you believe in corona: that you can get infected by it, that you can measure it, that you can die from it.
Often enough it has been made clear that the PCR 'test' cannot diagnose a viral disease at all. There are also plenty of publications that explain the whole of virology science as a kind of soup in which you can get anything you want with amphotericin B, kidney cells from aborted children or monkeys to which sputum is then added and then 'grown' and then viewed under an electron microscope, that you can get anything you want from it. They are nothing more than Rorsach pictures. Stefan Lanka showed that with this method, without adding human 'infected' tissue, he could also see HIV, measles, monkeypox and so on under his electron microscope. It's a big nonsense.
That does not alter the fact that there are seasonal diseases, but why they exist: no one knows. Such was the state of affairs in the 18th century, such is the state of affairs.
So if you want to solve the riddle of Thanatos now, then the start lies in acknowledging that Covid does not exist. I realize that such a statement is not intended for children's ears, and I grant everyone their faith, but riddles... I hate that. Especially if they are not riddles.
Wat is covid dan wel? Covid=Seizoensgebonden luchtwegziekte (in de volksmond ook wel geheten ‘griep’)+medische nalatigheid. Niets meer, niets minder. De sterfte, die jij tot vervelens toe en nogal misleidend ‘aan corona’ noemt is in 2020 volledig te wijten aan WHO ziekenhuisprotocollen die vergaten dat luchtwegziekten een heel palet aan oorzaken kunnen hebben, waaronder longembolie, pneumonie, hartfalen, etc en als alles is uitgesloten ‘griep’, en alle ziekte tot Covid uitriepen als de magische dobbelsteen die de PCR test was op zes viel. En zelfs was de pcr test negatief, was het ziekenhuispersoneel zo bang voor de patiënt, dat ze, voor de zekerheid, de diagnose Covid ‘klinisch’ stelden om deze arme patiënten vervolgens letterlijk te laten stikken in een isoleerruimte, aan een mechanische luchtpijpmachine, terwijl de remdesivir (geeft multiorgaan falen) met ‘compassie’ (zo noemden de experts dat) werd toegediend. Zo ging dat in 2020.
Vanaf 2021 kwamen de vaccinaties en voelden artsen zich beschermd met het magische elixer. Dit had als voordeel dat artsen niet meer zo bang waren voor de magische luchtwegziekte dat onzichtbaar in de lucht hing en waarvan ze iedere patiënt die zich tegenover begaf verdachten totdat het tegendeel bewezen was (=overleden dan wel van zichzelf opgeknapt). Omdat ze niet meer bang waren, werd de differentiaal diagnose voor luchtwegziekte weer uitgebreid en kon er ook longembolie, pneumonie en andere potentieel dodelijke luchtwegziekte weer bij.
Misschien denk je dat ik overdrijf en IGJ noemt dit soort schrijven van mij emotioneel en frustrerend (waarna die knoeiers van IGJ vinden dat ze niet meer naar de inhoud hoeven te kijken). Maar dat wat ik zeg valt te verifiëren. Zie hier bijvoorbeeld hoe ongelooflijke nulliteiten in december 2020 aangeven dat patiënten die opgenomen worden met Covid nog steeds in de helft van d gevallen longembolie ‘ontwikkelen’ en voor raadsels staan.. laat je niet afleiden van de NOS titel, die is misleidend…
https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2361806-onderzoek-kans-op-overlijden-in-ziekenhuis-half-zo-groot-als-in-eerste-golf.html
Maw: in 2021 gaat de nalatigheid van ziekenhuisprotocollen, die nog maar een ziekte kunnen diagnostieren: Covid er 1 af, DANKZIJ de mirakeldrugs van Pfizer et al die onze medicijnmannnen, net als de Galliërs die van Panoramix toverdrank hebben gedronken, onsterfelijk maken. Ze durven nu de Romeinen/patiënten onder ogen te komen en denken, godzijdank, weer een beetje na. Toch blijft de oversterfte aanhouden. Wat kan de oversterfte verklaren als alles in de ziekenhuizen qua diagnostische protocollen, maar ook zorgverlening terug naar ‘normaal’ gaat (normaal=zoals het voor 2020 in ziekenhuizen was geregeld), wat anders kan het zijn dan vaccin?
Ik zie geen raadsels. Wat ik wel zie is dit:
‘How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?’
Anyway… dit is allemaal onder de lijn en een beetje (te) snel opgeschreven. Frustratie, zeker. Maar dat gedraai in cirkels dat elke keer terugkomt vanwege het feit dat boven de lijn geloofd wordt dat iemand kan sterven ‘aan corona’ begint me toch wel dermate te irriteren dat het zo’n reactie ontlokt. Ook daar is niets raadselachtigs aan…
Dit artikel gaat niet over corona, maar over Thanatos, wat staat voor vaccinatie en de schadelijke gevolgen daarvan. Wat de precieze oorzaak van de sterftegolven in 2020 was, is in dit verhaal minder interessant.
Bedankt weer voor deze heldere uitleg. Heel sterk om het raadsel van thanatos te benoemen. Wij wappies onder elkaar weten wel een synoniem, maar het V woord nièt noemen is soms beter om kans te maken om eens serieus genomen te worden en de cijfers voor zich te laten spreken! Het is een mooie manier om zogenaamde desinformatie te ontkrachten.
Dit is de eerste keer dat ik een artikel las waarbij een relatie is gelegd naar een eerdere griepgolf met een corona variant, waarbij natuurlijke bescherming is ontstaan in een leeftijdscohort.
Mooi werk!
Het niveau van de commissie leden is bedroevend. Het ging dan vooral over de oversterfte en de bizar onzinnige uitspraken van vooral Karremans. Lijkt alsof de spike eiwitten hem in de bol zijn geslagen. Ik ben 100% met Willem eens dat er niemand of bijna niemand aan Covid is overleden. Maar die aanname valt buiten de kaders waarin mensen redeneren.
Dit is een goed artikel over de beperkingen van de discussie door Jonathan Engler en Jessica Hocket: https://www.woodhouse76.com/p/false-binaries-that-limit-the-spectrum
De essentie is dat het lijkt alsof er een open discussie gaande is, maar in feite speelt die zich af binnen specifieke kaders. Er is bijvoorbeeld volop discussie over lableak versus wet market, effect van mondkapjes, aerosole verspreiding etc, maar deze onderwerpen gaan er vanuit dat er daadwerkelijk een pandemie was die veroorzaakt werd door een nieuw dodelijk virus. Als je dat laatste ter discussie stelt, dan kleur je buiten de lijntjes en ben je af. Als je alle feiten op een rij zet kun je alleen concluderen dat er nooit een dodelijk virus de wereld over is gegaan, maar dat de ‘pandemie’ een opstapeling was van heel veel propaganda die wereldwijd werd verspreid, gecombineerd met dodelijke protocollen, geïnitieerd door de compleet verkeerd toegepaste PCR tests. De mensen die het ziekenhuis vermeden hebben de juiste keuze gemaakt. Helaas konden veel ouderen die keuze niet maken, maar werd die voor ze gemaakt.
Is dit relevant als het over oversterfte gaat? Ik denk het wel. Want de amateur politici in het ‘debat’ van afgelopen donderdag gaan ervan uit dat er een dodelijk virus de ronde deed, en dan zijn draconische maatregelen toegestaan. Beetje de plot van ‘Contagion’ uit 2011. Helaas is dat fictie. Heldhaftige (WHO!) virologen die de wereld redden door middel van een snel ontwikkeld wonder vaccin…..
Dat de mRNA injecties niet deugen mag duidelijk zijn. Bewijs materiaal te over. Combineer dat met de ‘onverklaarbare’ oversterfte en je moet wel een heel zwaar spike eiwit geïnfecteerde grijze massa hebben om dat niet te zien.
Ik ben ondertussen van mening dat een ‘pandemie’ zoals die in 2020 ontstond, in elke willekeurige winter kan worden opgewekt. Als je massaal gaat testen met de ondeugdelijke PCR test (nooit hiervoor bedoeld), vervolgens iedereen met een ILI (Influenza Like Ilness) of verkoudheid als patiënt gaat behandelen, en daarna behandelt met de dodelijke WHO protocollen, dan heb je zo een pandemie. En vroeg behandeling werd verboden. Hiervoor moeten dan natuurlijk wel de overheden en de media meewerken om voldoende angst te genereren onder de populatie.
Wederom bedankt Herman en Anton,
Wat een enorme olifant in de tweede kamer (commissie)! Wat moet het heerlijk zijn dat Karremans iedereen zo gerust kan stellen. Colijns “ Ik verzoek den luisteraars dan ook om, wanneer zij straks hun legersteden opzoeken, even rustig te gaan slapen als zij dat ook andere nachten doen.” uit 1936 is er niets bij.
De denkbeelden van sites als Virusvaria, Maurice en recalcitrante mensen op X, zijn door de overheden overal zo effectief in de complotdenkers/wappie-hoek geplaatst dat bijna niemand daar in het openbaar over durft te spreken. De gedragswetenschappers hebben goed werk verricht!
Zelfs de kritische Fleur Agema moet door haar ambtenaren grondig gesensibiliseerd zijn: “voorzichtig excelentie, we willen geen paniek in de tent” en “als ze erachter komen gaan we blut”. Ik had ten onrechte hoge verwachtingen van haar bij vws.
En dan komen belangen om de hoek kijken, het pluche/leer met bijbehorend salaris is comfortabel, niemand wil als eerste de bubbel van binnenuit doorprikken en zo staan er honderzevenenveertig mensen op de kant te kijken hoe drie eigenwijze figuren proberen een drenkeling te redden uit een kolkende maalstroom.
We moeten er op voorbereid zijn dat het heel lang gaat duren en dat het heel wat persoonlijke offers zal vragen: verlies van vrienden, het gevoel dat iedereen om je heen gek is geworden, sociaal isolement, wie is er niet groot mee geworden? Gek genoeg word je er wel sterker van: what doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger!
that’s the spirit!
Mogelijk kan een samenvatting van 7 virusvaria artikelen mbv Chatgtp wat licht in de Corona duisternis laten schijnen:
https://1drv.ms/w/c/13426ae541632a0a/EUhZnhfKioFPvktpXd9BLckBVPx4kvyfbY30Yrjmuj9bZQ
Allemaal wappies daar bij Yale……..https://businessam.be/nieuw-onderzoek-wijst-op-mogelijk-post-vaccinatiesyndroom-na-mrna-covid-vaccins/?fbclid=IwY2xjawIpXQVleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHZ3bJUw2vZ7vS59m46BaXZIVWc-J7JYWNYNic2gWaogY0heYOIDUpZ-zBQ_aem_5EQdxpA35aDEhzzy5StNBQ
Ja, heftige studie!