When we wrote about unexplained excess mortality in August 2021, it was a world first. In that article, we pointed out that corona was no longer the main cause of excess mortality. That was easy to see: we subtracted the covid mortality from the total mortality and then there was still considerably more mortality than expected. In the summer.
- Mortality minus expected mortality = excess mortality
- Excess mortality minus Covid mortality = unexplained excess mortality
As a result, there were differences between CBS and RIVM, because if you looked at the CBS figures, covid mortality was sometimes two or three times as high as total excess mortality. Of course, that wasn't possible. There are several reasons to prefer the RIVM figures. We (Herman Steigstra and I) explain that in an article on Researchgate, but that is not the most important part of that article. What really matters is that the deductions just described do not take into account expected under-mortality. How this can be calculated is also stated in that article.
Based on a reliable mortality forecast, an excess mortality period is always followed by under-mortality.
Simply put: You expect less mortality than you first expected, because you have just seen excess mortality. The expected mortality (the baseline) should therefore be temporarily reduced after a period of excess mortality. All mortality above the new 'sub' baseline will then become excess mortality. For the past few years, this means that there has been a lot of excess mortality.
How much and for how long depends very much on the age composition of those who have died extra. The older they are, the sooner the under-mortality will be over. Based on experiences with flu epidemics, Herman made a plausible calculation to determine what undermortality you can expect after excess mortality.
Nut: This is not because we want to rake everything together that leads to more excess mortality, but because we have never before seen such a long period of persistent excess mortality. This raises new questions. And it gets even more serious than this.
In the graph, the regular expectation is indicated by the straight 100% line (light blue area for clarification). The bottom black line shows the adjusted forecast, the 'sub' baseline. After each corona wave, it drops down a bit and then slowly normalizes back to 100%. The shaded portion is the total unexplained mortality, after deducting Covid.
The shaded area in the blue area is what has been added due to the missing under-mortality. If you look closely at the line, you will see that the unexplained excess mortality has less effect on the under-mortality line than the corona peaks. This is because there were relatively fewer deaths among the elderly. As a result, future excess mortality will be spread over a much longer period of time, and then there will be no clear dents in the undermortality expectation.
Years of life lost due to excess mortality
The under-mortality calculation is based on what we usually see after flu epidemics. Flu, "old man's friend" or "the final push" mainly causes mortality among people who didn't have very long left anyway. This results in a limited number of years of life lost.
Note: In the RG article, we talked about QALYs: Quality Adjusted Life Years, a well-known and widely used abbreviation. Actually, LYL (Life Years Lost) is a better term in this case, because QALY calculations also include the quality aspect of the remaining years of life, for example in the event of permanent disability or incapacity for work. However, we only look at (excess) mortality. In the RG article, you can read LYL where QALY is written. If there is another revision, we will take it with us.
The covid mortality was no different from flu mortality: just as age-discriminatory. Healthy young people were spared, the very elderly and vulnerable were disproportionately affected.
When covid disappeared and excess mortality continued, this profile changed. This graph clearly shows how the mortality rates were among various age groups in the excess mortality years 2020-2023.
There are two ways to look at it:
- Someone aged 80 had a 50% chance of dying in 2020 (red line). In the following years: approx. 70%.
- The colored lines are 5 years more to the left than the red ones. After corona, people died 5 years earlier than average.
The younger a person dies, the higher the number of years of life lost.
If you calculate the two graphs above, you will come up with:
- More unexplained deaths than previously thought (correction for 'forgotten' undermortality)
- More years of life lost (LYL) post-covid than during covid (deaths younger on average)
A rough estimate for the number of years of life lost due to corona, taking into account the displacement of mortality, is 23,000.
For the years from 2021 onwards, it is about 240,000.
More than 10 times as many as in the years after 2021. 3x as many years of life lost per year.
These are all roundings to emphasize the order of magnitude. In the article on Researchgate it's all more precise.
Where to, what for?
Hopefully, everyone is wondering how this tragedy was caused. Is there anything that can be done about it at all? Can it be prevented, next time? Then you should know something about the cause. Because this article is hopefully also easy to follow for those who have not yet delved into the matter, we will answer the most obvious questions.
“Could it be an aging population, the baby boom?"Demographic developments have been taken into account in the expectation. So that can't really be the cause.
“Could it be due to delayed care?"We know that urgent care has not been postponed. A ZonMw study has calculated that a reduction in angioplasty diagnoses and/or treatments could have led to 2,153 extra deaths (remember that there are 40,000 deaths from cardiovascular disease every year). Angioplasty treatments are sometimes performed acutely after diagnosis and in that sense it is urgent care, with a treatment that has immediate results.
In the meantime, the postponed care has long since been overtaken. People who have felt pain in their left arm since 2020 have had every opportunity to seek treatment. It is good that this has been mapped out, but it does not give reason to see deferred care as the cause of a structural mortality increase of 10%.
“Could it be related to vaccination?"Of course you can, why not. In terms of timings, the introduction of the covid vaccines and the individual campaigns can be easily linked to excess mortality rates and peaks, both in the short and long term. More and more studies are signaling very serious side effects. These are about the effect of the mRNA Covidspike injections on all kinds of cells and systems, including life-threatening:
- blood problems (thrombosis, coagulation, aneurysms, heart and cerebral infarctions, cerebral haemorrhages)
- respiratory system (lung problems, respiratory diseases)
- weakened immune systems (cancer, inflammation in multiple organs)
mRNA is everywhere, including in the most protected parts of our body such as the brain and reproductive organs.
“Is the excess mortality really that serious?"Look for yourself at the mortality figures of the CBS. Seasonally displayed from summer to summer.
Research into the link between vaccination and excess mortality
Initially, I had high expectations of the Parliamentary Inquiry. That enthusiasm has plummeted. Not only because the report will only be published in 3 years' time, when everyone has already gone back to business as usual. They also stop at 2022. As if we are back in normal waters in 2023 and 2024. Seen in this light, it is a formality that is being fulfilled.
It has also become clear to me that the parliamentary inquiry will focus on protocols. Have we followed all the rules correctly? Here are the main points:
- Goals, strategy and crisis organisation;
- Considerations, dilemmas and proportionality;
- Role of advisors and dealing with social groups and criticism;
- Communication of the government and crisis organisation;
- Role of the House of Representatives;
- Learning capacity and lessons for the future.
At first I thought: "proportionality", that's a nice approach. But then the experts will testify that the politicians with 5% of the knowledge had to make 100% of the decisions. Smoke screens galore. Furthermore, proportionality (and subsidiarity) was assessed by the courts very early in the corona period. That was all fine "because the OMT..."
Willem Engel and Jeroen Pols didn't stand a chance with their elaborate accusations. So there is case law on it, the judge has ruled. Check.
Then point 3: the 'role of advisers' perhaps? It was, of course, excellent. They have given good advice to the best of their knowledge. In fact, an OMT was immediately put in place very decisively! And they have often dutifully put their heads together to protect the country. Check.
"Dealing with criticism"? The water cannon with which the skull of that woman was shot against the concrete on the 18 Septemberplein in Eindhoven, that was not very handy, but on the other hand, Maurice de Hond has sometimes been invited to an advisory panel. Admittedly, that might have been better. Plus minus, point of improvement.
About the role of the House of Representatives – I don't expect it to send itself home. They did everything in their power, Attje Kuiken even wanted to send sabotaging doctors home, how powerful do you want it to be. And besides, that's just how democracy works. Check.
In short, not much can come out of it. I wonder whether Pepijn van Houwelingen, whom I consider to be the most knowledgeable in the field, will have a decisive voice, and to what extent Rosanne Hertzberger will be able to denounce the failing academia is another question. To the extent that that is in the scope of the committee at all.
I am all the more looking forward to the report by Ronald Meester and Marc Jacobs. They are in the final phase of their research, which will be presented at the end of August. It will be an exciting moment for the virus editors, the Maurice authors and many other attic analysts: have we been completely wrong or...?
The big disclaimer is, of course: it's still statistics in the end. On the other hand, alarming foreign medical studies are piling up, but as Jaap van Dissel once aptly remarked, "that's not the Netherlands". Autopsies have never taken place in the Netherlands, so when such hard evidence is demanded, it will be a disappointment.
The biggest disappointment will be that the parliamentary inquiry does not put the functioning of the EMA, Health Council, Health and Youth Inspectorate (IGJ), National Health Care Institute (ZIN), medical scientists and doctors' associations such as Medisch Contact, academia, etc. on the filleting board. This means that the pharma lobby will be able to put half the world in a bind the next time there is yet another lab accident during research that is carried out for the same pharma.
Covid is not over, I have not been vaccinated for 76 years, now have it for the third time. The virus mutates and then it keeps coming back.
By Covid I mean the original dreaded disease that caused a cytokine storm, from which a good percentage of those infected died and where, in desperation, a kind of experimental chemotherapy or gene therapy was deployed in the entire world population.
Annoying for you! Are you very sick of it? I've had it twice. The last time was in 2021, I think: shivering for a day or two.
Are you trying to do something about it?
Wasn't it precisely the (flawed) treatment that caused those Cytekine storms?
Mvg, Arnoud
Here's another unvaccinated person. I am 70 years old and have also had it for the third time (apart from maybe even more often) an infection where I did not get sick, but did get shortness of breath that disappears after sometimes months and comes back every time. May 28 again sick for 12 days (same as flu) 1 time I woke up in the morning after a Covid infection with enormous stabbing pain and it would be Ichias. I believe that too, but I suspect the result of that contamination. Couldn't sit on a chair for 2 months and saw someone at post Covid.nl, (vaccinated by the way, although he doesn't think it can come from that, he thinks of the disease itself) who had the same, only many times worse, because with him it had not improved after 2 years and the man could only lie down instead of sitting. For me, it has healed, although I still feel that spot in the back from time to time. Now I have huge joint complaints again after the infection right in the weak spots. Never bothered by my hands that barely have any cartilage left in them and after the infection regularly pain out of nowhere. Especially in bed Also in the shoulders. It is hard for me to know that this will continue year after year. Always slept well and now not anymore and see that with the last infection at Post Covid.nl more people have suffered from sleeping problems. It is now clear to me that you cannot build up immunity. Presumably, those scientists who said that the virus always escapes immunity are right. I'm starting to see the black.
Good luck, Do. Not nice to hear and I understand very well that you want to share your story. Make sure you have enough sun, fresh air, exercise, mingling with people, eating well... I don't know either: supplements, ivermectin? I'm sure you've thought of that too. I wish you a speedy recovery!
Dear Eggink, you may find this useful:https://1drv.ms/w/c/13426ae541632a0a/EVroGjhK0TxJizchQeEuMQcBTrsPSDwcciBoZoyJM9TmqA
For example, I use it when my grandchildren have stayed with us.
Thank you Anton,
For much longer than Covid I have been using supplements such as quercetin, D3 zinc, and natto kinase. I live a very healthy life. Don't smoke or drink and also look very healthy. That makes it even more difficult. However, I'd love to try ivermectin, I don't know how to get it. Also don't know the dose in my case.
Perhaps most poignantly: people have been pricked ("for the greater good"), still pricked, died and their death is then also concealed.
Cowardly, vile, disrespectful behaviour from agencies and government that this is downplayed and barely investigated and from most media that they are as quiet as they were in the first Covid year noisily.
We are in complete agreement, also about the disastrous role of our low-quality media. The columnists of the Telegraaf, they made themselves heard from time to time. Furthermore: inferior intellect or corrupt gajes.
Or hares, overcome by fear......
Their responses are about the fact that social measures, face masks, vaccinations, censorship, prohibited medication were proven to be harmful. Keulemans mentions a few things under the motto 'I was also critical'. His grandfather must have been in the resistance. But that's not the point. They didn't know exactly how harmful some things were. That was no reason to be cautious either. ("We're going to throw a bomb." – "Oh? What kind of damage is it going to cause"? – "I don't know, but maybe we'll win the war. It might just help.")
They also quickly knew how serious Covid really was (severe flu) and for whom. Despite this, they continued to disrupt society. What matters is that they knew everything and did it anyway. They knew that the potential damage posed a high risk or was a certainty. They knew there was no certainty that anything would work. They knew - I am convinced - that they did not prevent aerosols in this way, at most as a side effect of group bans. There simply wasn't a shred of substantiation. That's the point, not that WE already knew, no, THEY knew!
Uitstekend artikel, ook over de uitgeholde parlementaire enquête. Ik kijk ook uit naar de bevindingen van Meester c.s. én van buitenlandse onderzoekers, terwijl meer klokkenluiders eveneens altijd welkom zijn. Want in overheidskringen regeert angsten voor aansprakelijkheid én de persoonlijke carrière, terwijl de omerta inherent is aan de medische sector, vanwege dezelfde angsten.
Personally, I have the idea that these vaccines make things worse and, in the best case, do nothing at all. It's a shame that people don't want to do proper research on the disease itself and the vaccines. Very special and you would think there is something that cannot stand the light of day.
Hi Anton,
a small correction for your text: where you are talking about the woman whose skull was shot against the concrete with a water cannon, was not on the Museumplein (A-Dam), but on the 18 Septemberplein in Eindhoven.
Otherwise, another excellent analysis!
I am also looking forward to the report by Ronald Meester and Marc Jacobs.
Corrected, great, thanks! Misremembered.
It's great that you're all figuring this out.
I think the number of deaths FROM Covid is even lower. The way in which the protocols were adapted to the unreliable PCR tests led to large numbers of erroneous treatments. See also interview of Willem Lijfering with Wybren van Haga (youtube).
Above all, I see a huge system failure as the underlying cause. So apart from all the madness. Face masks were pointless, pure scaremongering. The unreliable PCR test that was used as a diagnosis. Keep your distance, close borders. All based on models (which never came out). And in all "highly developed" countries the same patterns. Hastily developed(?) Roll out 'vaccines' en masse. The WHO finally got the pandemic they've been waiting for for so long. These kinds of institutions become too big and end up looking for reasons to ensure their right to exist.
The same goes for the approval bodies such as EMA, FDA etc. We all know here that they are to a large extent sponsored by the pharmaceutical industry. A very sick system that should really be tackled by politicians. Neo-liberalism gone too far? There are no more control mechanisms. This 'pandemic' was a logical consequence of the developments of decades. Easy to say that retroactively, of course. Who can still regulate these bodies? National governments can hardly be called democratic anymore. But that's a story in itself.
That's why it's so incredibly frustrating that so few people see what (among other things) you're reporting here. I think it's the canary in the coal mine. Because of this self-inflicted 'pandemic', (some) people have come to see what is wrong in our current structures.
This weekend another death. 62 year old healthy man. ex-colleague. Sudden heart failure. Used to happen too. Certainly, but now very often. I keep my mouth shut, it's not appropriate to start shouting what you actually think at such a moment.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, its probably a duck.
I also had another unexpected death, in an app group of former fraternity mates, mostly medics. "Far too young" is what they say. I don't say anything because I only get scorn about me, totally pointless in such company.
Last week my 44-year-old cousin passed away suddenly. Has not been discovered in the house for 4 days. Lived in assisted living (autism) and didn't live too healthy (no alcohol/drugs). I can't talk to anyone about it (I don't either) because the jabs are sacred.
Peter Gilles' son, Mark, recently came to the ICU with pneumonia, latest reports that attempts with yet other antibiotics seem to be working. Happy and I wish him a speedy recovery and strength for him and his family. The young man is obese and all that together would have been deadly, especially with the protocols during corona. No antibiotics and on a ventilator on his abdomen. Obese people on their stomachs can be fatal anyway and more than 80% of covid patients, Gommers said, during the first wave were obese patients with multiple conditions. My contacts with two ICU doctors had already told me that... It is incomprehensible that all those family members always emphasize "the good care(s)" while the first 5 most common causes of death are due to medical care anyway. And then all those "unexplained" deaths. And another terrified cyclist without fitness who is afraid of "infecting" others who dismounts in the tour. They are still crazy.
Excellent but also sad article, for example about the hollowed-out parliamentary inquiry. While hope remains for the independent research results of Meesters/Jacobs at the end of August; will Tijs van den Brink dare to dwell on that in a significant way? Anyway, luckily Maurice is there too.
Covid with or without vaccination... It remains a vague stream of symptoms and can therefore hardly be referred to as a new disease. I continue to suspect that something else is going on here and refer to the book by Arthur Firstenberg (invisible rainbow). As a population, we are creating a new balance, where some adapt easily and others don't. The new forms of radiation (many installed on homes for the elderly) will be added at the beginning of August when the new transmission frequencies (now really like microwaves) will be switched on. What kind of wave is going to come from that?
Beautiful work by Anton Theunissen on Excess Mortality. But what should I do with it?
In August 2022, my wife was admitted to the hospital with vascular problems after being vaccinated against corona in 2021. She died on August 27, 2022 from vascular infections throughout the body, even in the brain. Before the vaccination, my wife was a very healthy woman, did a lot of sports, cycled and walked a lot. Didn't smoke, didn't drink, didn't take medication and rarely went to see a doctor.
Until she was vaccinated, she suffered from everything. In the hospital they do not dare and do not want to give a definite answer as to what caused her death, but it was said that this phenomenon of so many vascular infections was also a new phenomenon for them. They operated on my wife twice more to repair the blood vessel damage, but without a good outcome. So excess mortality is plentiful, but it is criminally denied by all kinds of agencies and covered up with lies. I have been in court against the hospital and the Dutch state for more than two years to get the truth out, but you are opposed everywhere, even by agencies such as GGD, RIVM, LAREB and the hospital, not to mention the government itself. But I won't give up, the bottom stone will come out. And the guilty will be punished. So how that excess mortality should be described in the archives will be a sausage to me, THERE IS EXCESS MORTALITY and it is caused by the so-called vaccine which is not a vaccine. In my family, 3 people have died from cardiovascular problems after being vaccinated. And one has been in the hospital for a long time with a pericardium infection. I myself have not been vaccinated and never will.
Terrible. My condolences and I wish you a lot of strength in your fight for recognition.
Condolences for the loss of your wife. How the powers that be have damaged society enormously. Strength.
On behalf of Dorothee (because you may not have received the notification):
Condolences for the loss of your wife. How the powers that be have damaged society enormously. Strength.
An acquaintance of mine lost her daughter-in-law (59 years old) in September last year. Cancer throughout the body and there was something like 2 months between the discovery and death. Liters of fluid had to be sucked out. Her abdomen was abnormally large with fluid. She asked for and received euthanasia. Another friend of mine lost her sister-in-law and a friend of hers. Also cancer in a few months. This friend doesn't link it to the vaccine and neither does the knowledge. I myself have stopped pointing this out to them. Another one here in the building already had a few stents and the last one was 11 years ago and in those eleven years everything was fine. After the vaccination I fell twice and at the beginning of January a blood clot in the vein, where no stent could be placed. Then two women, 1 of whom I know, because she sometimes came to drink a cup of dementia in a very short time. I think the vaccinations and maybe the disease, but I don't know. Needs to be investigated. I don't know the other one and maybe he was already demented. I don't know. Last week I was with this friend who lost two people and she got a call from someone who teaches sports with her. If she wanted to take over, because his brother-in-law had died suddenly. Then a woman, who had suffered an eye attack. Then a woman who got a blood clot in the brain and fell unconscious. She was lucky that the clot dissolved on its own, otherwise she would have had to rehabilitate. Her husband a week later also thunders to the ground and had something wrong with his hip and had to be in the wheelchair for 6 weeks. All vaccinated people. My brother fell a day after the vaccination and then had to go to a nursing home and was bedridden for months. Is now in a closed ward. I don't dare to say whether his dementia has anything to do with the vaccine, but I strongly suspect that he does. A woman here in the flat fell dead from the bike. Just like that, without it being an accident with another vehicle. They don't know why and assume a heart attack. Also vaccinated. A hiker (vaccinated three times) that I know has about the same as what I have, but she feels a bit better after 2 years, but climbing and yoga are no longer possible. And she can't drive a taxi anymore. Yoga also hurts me. Rather not at all. Before corona manifested itself, I saw occasional illness and death and since the rollout of the vaccine on an assembly line. It's to cry that you can't say it, because then it's: yes, people are getting older, aren't they!! In 3 years' time. Suddenly. In 2020, I heard 1 time that someone had died of corona. Hearsay, in other words. Not in the area.