Scenarios and news

Looking at the increase in sudden deaths, ambulance rides and crowds in the funeral industry, in combination with low hospital/ICU occupancy, you wouldn't expect cbs to conclude: "The main causes: flu and corona". All the more so since the PCR tests indicate that virtually no corona is found anymore. The sewer measurements no longer have a predictive value.

In any case, this morning's news was: "According to CBS, the mortality was 170,000(!) and not the previously estimated 155,000." Due to corona and flu, according to CBS...

The average age of Covid deaths, as we know, is around life expectancy. It is therefore not surprising that our attention is constantly focused on this: in that age group, certainly over 80 years, the vast majority of deaths take place, either 'with', or 'due to' corona or neither. The same applies to flu in the elderly.

But what do we see in 2022: 7% excess mortality at 50-65 years. (In 2021 even ten percent!). And also in 2022: 13% excess mortality in the age group under 50 years! This is particularly alarming. THIRTEEN percent!? These are not the age groups in which the typical flu or corona deaths can be found.

So: more than 1 in 8 of all deceased under the age of 50 would have been alive under normal circumstances.

50-65 years: 1 in every 13 deaths should not have occurred.

All this could have been prevented – if the cause had been found and addressed in time. They did not search.

(Needless to say, it's about percentages of ALL deaths in those age groups, not just corona mortality.)

Numbers then? Let's do the math...

A total of 21,927 65-year-olds died in 2022 (CBS). Based on historical figures (CBS) is about one-third (7,236) of these 0-50 years and two-thirds (14,472) 50-65 years.

7,236 including 13% excess mortality. That's 6,404 + 832 excess mortality
14,472 including 7.2% excess mortality = 13,500 + 972 excess mortality. 832 + 972 = 1804.

The absolute aboutmortality among people under 65 will therefore, only for 2022, amount to approx. 1,800 Dutch in the age groups that have little or nothing to fear from flu and/or Omikron. 1,800 might not sound like much? They are under 65. That is, for example, 100 amateur football teams with their reserves, coaches and some supporters (some children, for example). Hundred. Imagine that. If one such football team falls out of the sky with a Boeing, the country is turned upside down and we are in mourning. Now, no one notices anything about two planes a week, except for the relatives who do not realize that they are part of a national disaster. Or rather: an international disaster. I can see it coming up with a day of remembrance for the CTB dead someday, although they will call it something else.

The graph also shows how long people are now refusing to release data for independent research. We understood the figures for 2020, but in the summer of 2021 the first question marks arose. Just a little while longer and two years of continuous unexplained mortality are looked away, which may cause unnecessary death – because the cause is unknown. Families are destroyed, children lose their parents, uncles, aunts. Don't count in QALYs, and you'll be saddened.

So those were the 65-year-olds, with the shortest rods...

In any case, it is certain that the total numbers run into the many, many thousands. Above only concerns the 'younger' age groups during a period of only 1 year (2022). What will it look like if we bring in the really vulnerable, people who fall over from a price and then also take into account the entire crisis period, from summer 2021 to summer 2023? The persistent excess mortality shows an increasing trend since mid-2021; we are heading for an unprecedented period of two years of continuous excess mortality.

If CBS writes "In the first three months of 2022, there was no excess mortality" that sounds as nonsensical as reporting at the time of a war: "Last night there was no war". To see that nonsense, you only have to zoom out a little bit further.

Statistics Netherlands also reports that there was excess mortality in the third quarter of 2022. That reminds me of a fire chief who reports a broken window after a building has burned out. It may be true, but it is not an adequate description.

And now? Coffee grounds watching.

Disagreement on the editorial board: statistical advisor Herman Steigstra does not foresee under-mortality and sees no reason to believe that daily excess mortality will be lower than before the flu wave: approximately 50 deaths per day. The polka dot line is therefore extended from the current point.

The virus varia editors do not consider that to be realistic. There will certainly be some under-mortality, after all, it was the flu that we suspect caused the whole bump. Then there is always some under-mortality.

After that, it becomes uncertain. I, as the virusvaria editor-in-chief, do not expect the structural excess mortality to suddenly disappear. Most likely, we will at least get above the red line of 2021. Even if we fall back to a slight unexplained excess mortality that we hope will wear off further and further. It may be against my better judgment, but then I hope we might go to 15/day Sinks, or is that too optimistic? It's still awful, because what's the reason?

And if it is indeed mainly because I fear it is coming, then it has been stopped, so will the undesirable effects decrease somewhat? And surely it won't get worse in the long run? We'll see 😉

We consulted Prof. Dr. Akkermans of the Eucalyptic Society Sub Rosa: "Can, can. Look, it all depends on the supposed cause. If you think of excluding psychological disturbances, I expect that excess mortality will grow faster. Maybe we've already had the summit. No one can tell how long it will last, it is still too short and we know nothing at all about the effects of everything that has been rolled out over the population. Psychological manipulation, injections,... Blank we are, no idea. Is it genetic? Then carcinogenic factors can play a role, causing the daily average to rise further. Up to how high? Joost should know; There has never been any research on this. It is jokingly said "the test animals died", but in what quantities and in what period we do not know. If you think in a scale of eight mice, that's a bit thin. "Is it injectable? Yes? Great, then it can go on the market. Get those mice through the shredder." That idea. Then the curve would only start to fall when all affected persons are no longer there. How many are there. We do not know, no prospective research is done into, for example, the presence of mRNA or spikes. And, before you hang up: There is also talk of mRNA-burdened babies who got it from their mother. Virus- or vaccine-related, that depends on the investigating party. So even if there are only a few (4%, we think), we haven't gotten rid of it yet!"

I admit, it's not rational, but I really just don't want to assume that the excess mortality of 2023 in this seasonal graph will be higher than 2022, as Herman argues. And his predictions were always eerily close to the truth... I can't rule it out, but I just can't believe that our health institutions just let such a tragedy happen, that our institutions and governments have actually created such a disaster, knowingly. Because I happened to be very early with my 'summer deaths' but at the end of 2021 there was no excuse for anyone, unless incompetence or disinterest is an excuse. That applies to anyone with pretensions: talk show guests, journalists and everything that has to do with policy.

Snack: typical Google weather. Left misspelled, right correct. Then Google understands better what they have to show from the government. See also a previous post on manipulating the suggestions.