As a Christmas present, we received a substantial reduction in excess mortality rates last week. We recall a similar previous attempt from May 2022, when the bandwidth was suddenly increased without notice.
That turned out to be an accident that no one at RIVM/CBS had noticed. Most of the excess mortality seemed to have disappeared for a while. It has now been tackled more thoroughly as can be seen in the graph below. The bandwidth has become almost constant: In the summer, just as much carefree excess mortality is now allowed as in winter. In the event of excess mortality in the summer, alarm bells seem to be appropriately omitted.
We also see a strong upward trend: the 'baseline' is being raised every year. In July 2022, we see a cut: from that moment on, 112 more people are suddenly 'allowed' to die than before, every week. That's about five and a half thousand extra deaths on an annual basis that we can accept as normal. If that is caused by the aging population, it will start very suddenly. In July 2023, another similar cut, but much smaller. Will the ageing population stop there?
The social relevance of such an intervention goes without saying. What we accept in terms of excess mortality is not just a statistical consideration. However, we missed the public discussion on the subject. It may also be in the interest of the State that excess mortality disappears on the horizon as soon as possible, including the distribution of vaccination and non-vaccination. This will work in this way: the grey line shows that the expected mortality in Feb22 is even lower than the under-mortality limit of 2 years later. And what was considered excess mortality in Feb22 is just around the expectation in Feb24.
Let's hope that this new approach will not distract attention in the upcoming excess mortality debate, nor in the evaluations of the past corona period, when corona policy was based on different principles. Surely we cannot classify these methods that have been used and tried and tested so far as unreliable, especially when the government wants to regain trust?
In short: the baseline is rising, it has now been decreed, and we will find out why this was decided. After all, determining that 'baseline', the expected mortality, can be done in all kinds of ways. We have already paid attention to this and we agree with the calculation made by the Herman Steigstra et al on Researchgate has been worked out.
Other calculators sometimes think differently. In the coming days, we will give space to two contributions, one by Bonne Klok and one by Bert Oosterhout. Bonne, who Previously pointed out on a possible overestimation of excess mortality, comments in particular on the way in which the figures have always been presented, Bert argues that the excess mortality has been considerably overestimated – although the figures remain disturbing even in that view.
I would now like to wish all readers a pleasant ending and a transparent and combative 2024!
Thanks to statistics, everything will be back in order and we don't have to worry about anything. The fact that everyone gets sick and dies suddenly is just a matter of feeling. What genius they are at the RIVM and CBS.
Anton, best wishes too. Hang in there!
A word about excess mortality. I may sound like a skipping record, but I still want to mention it again. If you look at each week, there is a risk that we will dive too much into the details. Must also be done to monitor the trends. But the moment you look at annual figures, it's blindingly simple, and impossible to hide the huge increase. I have added up the numbers up to week 48 for the years below.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
134.348 138.073 135.978 148.84 1 149.910 150.288 150.655
I don't have access to decent excel for a while, so graphs are difficult now. This is just coming from all the cijfers.nl that make it from CBS in my opinion.
So 2023 is not lower, and there is no question of a gradual increase. Assume that people like Steigstra, Meester & Jacobs will also take this with them. The above list leaves nothing to be desired in terms of clarity. Compared to 2019, this is a consistent increase of around 10%.
Well, just wanted to say this.
Agree Cees, but you have to show right away that it is not about aging, migration or other population growth. Then it automatically becomes more complex.
It offers hope for future 'pandemics': they are becoming less and less deadly thanks to this measure!
With the expected mortality figures from the RIVM, the mortality monitor of their total becomes worthless. These expected values are so high that it doesn't really mean anything.
The table below shows the following quantities;
– actual mortality per year.
– the expected mortality based on a linear rule from 2009 to 2019
– 95% upper limit of the margin of uncertainty of the above linear regression.
– the expected mortality of Statistics Netherlands (CBS)
– the expected mortality of the RIVM, where 2021 and 2024 have been extrapolated
————————lin.regr.—–lin.regr.
———–mortality—2009-2019–bov.grns——–CBS——RIVM—
2020—-167167—–155102—–160279——156667———–
2021—-170322—–157024—–162201——154890—151943—
2022—-169762—–158945—–164122——155496—158616—
2023—-170262—–160867—–166044——156666—165743—
2024——————-162789—–167965——————168402—
Best wishes for the New Year to all visitors of this site.
Mike, I reserved the URL sterftemonitor.nl. Let's see how we can fill them, because we can't expect much more from the government institutions.
Good action!
I would suggest that we at least show the figures from my previous response;
– actual mortality per year.
– the expected mortality based on a linear regression from 2009 to 2019
– 95% upper limit of the margin of uncertainty of the above linear regression.
– the expected mortality of the CBS (they are probably not going to continue this)
– the expected mortality of the RIVM
In addition, perhaps life expectancy and an international comparison with Germany and Belgium.
To me, their deliberate cheating for the purpose of deception alone indicates that there must be a consciousness of guilt on the part of higher-ups, that this is a coordinated, knowingly cover-up.
This also means that there must be potential whistleblowers with the relevant authorities.
Or is our Dutch society so totalitarian that they are removed in a timely and effective manner?
If you continue to reason, you really end up in a stinking corrupt hole where they are about corpses. There is no other way.
Our government... The fish rots first at the head.
Just an afterburner. We had a house built in the middle of the Covid period. Construction began in March 2021. So that was in the middle of the time of lockdowns, working from home etc. etc. Quite difficult because hardware stores are closed and so on.
But... I realized later. The construction workers themselves did not participate in all these situations (neither did we). They just went to the construction site in their van. Nix face masks, nix keep your distance. Just with 4 men in the van back and forth. Turn on the radio, sing along, eat together.
Yet, as far as I know, there have not been huge waves of deaths among construction workers. The house was also completed according to plan. Might be an interesting target group to dedicate a little research to.
Excess mortality exploded in the week before Christmas. More than 750 more deaths than in the week before. Not only in the Netherlands, but also elsewhere in the Western world, much higher mortality rates are reported. The scientists already know the cause: coronavirus variant JN.1.
https://www.gbnews.com/news/covid-scientists-warning-new-variant-global-heart-failure-pandemic
Hoi Anton. Heb je het artikel gelezen in de Volkskrant van donderdag 28 december van Maarten Keulemans? Hetvis het verhaal van een man met vaccunatieschade. “Trillend en tollend na coronavaccinatie: bestaat postvaccinatiesyndroom toch.”
Zou het kwartje nu eindelijk zijn gevallen of is het een kwestie van er niet meer omheen kunnen? Een dag later in dezelfde krant in ‘brief van de dag’ een aangrijpende reactie van Wendy Dix. ‘Je lichaam niet voelen, jezelf kwijt zijn, wie ben je dan nog?’
Hallo Thera,
daarover staat iets in mijn post van drie dagen geleden (Goede voornemens).